tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52988966259827268622024-02-20T16:06:03.931-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology, Bubble Watch & more!YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-25561832267507737742024-02-20T16:05:00.000-08:002024-02-20T16:05:32.964-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/20/24<p>All future bracketologies of mine will be done at <a href="https://skarmory.substack.com/">my substack</a>. You can click <a href="https://skarmory.substack.com/p/skarmorys-bracketology-022024">here</a> for the full bracketology post for this week. Cheers!</p><p><strong><br /></strong></p><p><strong>Bold</strong> indicates autobids and <em>Italics</em> indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.</p><p><strong>1 seeds:</strong> <strong>Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona</strong></p><p><strong>2 seeds: North Carolina, Tennessee</strong>, Kansas, Marquette</p><p><strong>3 seeds:</strong> Alabama, Baylor, Iowa State, Duke</p><p><strong>4 seeds: San Diego State</strong>, Illinois, Auburn, Creighton</p><p><strong>5 seeds: Dayton</strong>, Wisconsin, Clemson, Florida</p><p><strong>6 seeds:</strong> Kentucky, Michigan State, Colorado State, BYU</p><p><strong>7 seeds:</strong> Texas Tech, Utah State, South Carolina, Washington State</p><p><strong>8 seeds:</strong> TCU, <strong>St. Mary’s</strong>, Oklahoma, Texas</p><p><strong>9 seeds:</strong> FAU, Northwestern, Boise State, New Mexico</p><p><strong>10 seeds:</strong> Nevada, Virginia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M</p><p><strong>11 seeds:</strong> Nebraska, <strong>Grand Canyon</strong>, <em>(Ole Miss, Butler), (Providence, Seton Hall)</em></p><p><strong>12 seeds:</strong> <strong>Indiana State, Princeton, McNeese, Samford</strong></p><p><strong>13 seeds: South Florida, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Akron</strong></p><p><strong>14 seeds: Louisiana Tech, UNC-Wilmington, Vermont, High Point</strong></p><p><strong>15 seeds: Morehead State, Oakland, Eastern Washington, Colgate</strong></p><p><strong>16 seeds: Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, <em>(Southern, South Dakota State), (Norfolk State, Merrimack)</em></strong></p><h2><br /></h2><p><strong>Last four byes:</strong> Virginia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Nebraska</p><p><strong>Last four in:</strong><em> </em>Ole Miss, Butler, Providence, Seton Hall</p><p><strong>First four out:</strong> Utah, Drake, Cincinnati, Villanova</p><p><strong>Next four out:</strong> Gonzaga, Colorado, Wake Forest, Oregon</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-1081339309578470852024-02-18T19:51:00.000-08:002024-02-18T19:51:56.265-08:00Moving to Substack<p>Hey! Not sure if anyone scans this blog much, but if you do somehow stumble here, I plan to move over to <a href="https://skarmory.substack.com/">my substack</a> over the next week or so. I will post my Tuesday bracketology here as well, and I'll link the corresponding post on substack, then move over there. Cheers!</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-55874989666636221022024-02-16T19:47:00.000-08:002024-02-16T19:47:27.700-08:00Skarmory's Committee Top 16 reveal prediction (2024)<p>Hey! Figured I might as well do this in preparation for the reveal tomorrow 30 minutes after games start. No clue what the committee will prioritize between metrics and resume this year, but I'll take a stab at it.</p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Seed list</h2><div><br /></div><div>1. Purdue (1)</div><div>2. Houston (1)</div><div>3. UConn (1)</div><div>4. Arizona (1)</div><div>5. Tennessee (2)</div><div>6. Marquette (2)</div><div>7. North Carolina (2)</div><div>8. Iowa State (2)</div><div>9. Baylor (3)</div><div>10. Auburn (3)</div><div>11. Kansas (3)</div><div>12. Alabama (3)</div><div>13. Illinois (4)</div><div>14. Duke (4)</div><div>15. Wisconsin (4)</div><div>16. BYU (4)</div><div><br /></div><div>5-seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Clemson, San Diego State</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Regions</h2><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Midwest</h3><div>1. Purdue (1)</div><div>2. North Carolina (7)</div><div>3. Baylor (9)</div><div>4. BYU (16)</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">South</h3><div><div>1. Houston (2)</div><div>2. Marquette (6)</div><div>3. Alabama (12)</div><div>4. Wisconsin (15)</div></div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">East</h3><div><div>1. UConn (3)</div><div><div>2. Tennessee (5)</div><div>3. Kansas (11)</div></div><div>4. Duke (14)</div></div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">West</h3><div><div>1. Arizona (4)</div><div>2. Iowa State (8)</div><div>3. Auburn (10)</div><div>4. Illinois (13)</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Comments</h2><div><br /></div><div><b>Why Houston over UConn?</b> – I've been on this train most of the year, and it's mainly because of how big of a lead Houston has in the predictive metrics. The teams both have eight Q1 wins, four Q1-A and four Q1-B a piece, with Houston having an extra Q1 loss but UConn having one of their losses in Q1-B compared to all three of Houston's being in Q1-A. UConn does have 5-0 Q2 record compared to Houston's 1-0, but I don't think UConn has enough of a resume advantage there. It's also of note that Houston is 3rd in KPI (a resume metric), while UConn is 6th, and while that feels wrong, it may play into the committee's thought process.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Why is Iowa State the last 2 seed?</b> – The consensus pick of Kansas' metrics are way too bad. As for the other candidates, Alabama is worse than Auburn for reasons I'll explain later, Baylor has worse metrics and an extra Q2 loss, while having a Q1 win for a Q2 win, and Auburn has just two Q1 wins to Iowa State's five. I think all of them have cases, but Iowa State's is the best to me. UNC is actually pretty close to ISU now, but I think UNC stays slightly ahead of Iowa State, and they have pretty similar reasons to be above Auburn and Baylor.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Why is the 3 line the way it is?</b> – This was by far the hardest part. Auburn is top-5 in metrics, but with just two Q1 wins, it's tough to have them too high up. Kansas has a solid resume and has been projected high for a while, but their KP is 20th and BPI is 17th. I figured that Kansas could never be ahead of Auburn with that big of a metric gap, and Alabama also can't be ahead of Auburn because they're just a little worse across the board – even with one more Q1 win, they have two more Q2 losses and two less Q2 wins, along with worse predictive metrics and similar resume metrics.</div><div><br /></div><div>Baylor is a version of Kansas that's a bit better in quadrant records with slightly worse resume metrics and a lot better on predictive metrics. They also have a head-to-head win over Auburn, and I went with their extra four Q1 wins and the head-to-head being enough to push them ahead. This is the pick I have the least confidence about, and Baylor and Auburn could easily be switched depending on how heavily this committee weighs the Q1 win count.</div><div><br /></div><div>Kansas is ahead of Alabama because of the extra loss the Crimson Tide have, and the fact that Kansas has beaten four of the top 10 overall teams in this reveal (Alabama has beaten just one, and it's Auburn). I don't feel too confident about this either, especially because Kansas has a Q3 loss, but the metric gap isn't as significant as it is with Kansas and Auburn. Kansas' road record could also be a killer, given they're 2-5 on the road with their best win being Indiana.</div><div><br /></div><div>Illinois is also pretty close, but they're a slightly worse version of Alabama in my view, with the resume metrics not favoring them like they do Alabama.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Why are Wisconsin and BYU the last two teams in?</b> – I think this is the question more people will ask. Wisconsin's six Q1 wins and five Q2 wins are just too much for any of the others to contend with, outside of maybe Dayton, and I'll go into them more later. BYU, to me, feels like a team with a slight edge over Creighton. I could see it going either way for the last 4-seed between those two, but the two extra Q2 losses have Creighton's resume metrics worse than BYU's, even with an extra Q1 and Q2 win and one less Q1 loss. The Q1-A/Q1-B/Q2-A/Q2-B divides are also important with those two; four of BYU's five Q1 losses are Q1-A, while just two of Creighton's are, and they each have one Q1-A win. I think that evens out the Q1 disparity to some extent. Creighton does have an advantage over BYU in BPI, but BYU has the edge in NET, so I think that ultimately balances out. Creighton is 6-4 on the road while BYU is 2-4, and that could be the difference if it goes the other way.</div><div><br /></div><div>San Diego State's in a rough spot, because I expect the top 16 to largely be unaffected by SDSU's game at home against New Mexico. A win probably doesn't move them in, especially with BPI having them 35th. The lack of a loss below Q1 is nice, but not enough in this group with otherwise pretty average metrics/resume and BPI having them so low.</div><div><br /></div><div>I think Dayton is the big question mark here. They sit 10th in KPI and 12th in SOR, while 22nd in both KenPom and BPI, and 19th in NET. They have a solid 20-4 record, but they do play in the A10; they still have a 3-3 Q1 record and a 5-1 Q2 record, but those games are skewed towards Q1-B/Q2-B (just one Q1-A win, at #40 SMU, and two of their Q1 losses are Q1-B, while four out of five Q2 wins are Q2-B). I could reasonably see them ending up anywhere from above Wisconsin to below Clemson, and I have no idea what path the committee will take. Since I'm expecting some favor towards predictive metrics, I'm opting to leave BYU as #16.</div><div><br /></div><div>Clemson is a wild card. They have a pair of road wins at Alabama and North Carolina, a far better pair of wins than any other contender here has. The problem is the two Q2 losses and the Q3 loss they have, with predictive metrics hanging in the mid-to-low 20s. SOR also barely has them above BYU, so I don't think they'll get the edge there.</div><div><br /></div><div>I also took a glance at South Carolina and Utah State, and while the record and resume is nice for both of them, they both suffer from horrid predictive metrics, even more so in South Carolina's case.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Why are the regions what they are?</b> – It's a crapshoot, I'm not used to projecting regions. it's been a few years since I've done any of it. Hopefully I followed the principles.</div>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-90443142508921555732024-02-13T08:18:00.000-08:002024-02-13T08:18:38.356-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/13/24<p>Welcome back to Bracketology! My complaint to the consensus this week is WHY DO PEOPLE HAVE FLORIDA BELOW KENTUCKY BY MULTIPLE SEED LINES? Compare their resumes side-by-side. Florida has the same record, is higher in all of KenPom, BPI, KPI and SOR, has the same amount of Q1/Q2 wins, no losses below Q1 while Kentucky has a Q2 loss and a Q3 loss, while splitting the season series. I don't see any real case to put Kentucky above Florida, period, but they absolutely should not be multiple seed lines lower.</p><p><b>Bold</b> indicates autobids and <i>Italics</i> indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.</p><p><br /></p><p>1 seeds: <b>Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>North Carolina, Tennessee</b>, Marquette, Alabama</p><p>3 seeds: Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, Auburn</p><p>4 seeds: Duke, Illinois, <b>Dayton</b>, Wisconsin</p><p>5 seeds: South Carolina, Creighton, Clemson, BYU</p><p>6 seeds: <b>San Diego State</b>, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, <b>FAU</b></p><p>7 seeds: Utah State, Florida, Michigan State, Colorado State</p><p>8 seeds: Virginia, Kentucky, TCU, <b>St. Mary's</b></p><p>9 seeds: Texas A&M, Texas, <b>Indiana State</b>, Washington State</p><p>10 seeds: New Mexico, Northwestern, Mississippi State, Ole Miss</p><p>11 seeds: Nevada, Utah, Butler, <i>(Nebraska, Boise State)</i></p><p>12 seeds: <i>(Gonzaga, Cincinnati)</i>, <b>Grand Canyon, Princeton, McNeese</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, UNC Wilmington</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Morehead State</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, <i>(South Dakota State, Southern), (Merrimack, Norfolk State)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last 4 byes: Ole Miss, Nevada, Utah, Butler</p><p>Last 4 in: <i>(Nebraska, Boise State), (Gonzaga, Cincinnati)</i></p><p>First 4 out: St. John's, Colorado, Drake, Providence</p><p>Next 4 out: Wake Forest, Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon</p><p><br /></p><p>I also have a <a href=" https://thelowmajor.substack.com/p/skarmorys-bubble-watch">bubble watch</a>, hosted at my friends' blog, The Low Major; check it out, as it gives analysis on every bubble team! Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> to get an idea of the consensus of bracketologists, and to see where I differ.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 10</p><p>SEC: 9</p><p>Big Ten: 6<br /></p><p>Mountain West: 6</p><p>ACC: 4</p><p>Big East: 4</p><p>Pac-12: 3</p><p>WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-61974478456255261362024-02-06T14:51:00.000-08:002024-02-06T16:08:33.585-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/06/24<p>Welcome back to Bracketology! This week's edition is characterized by the fact that I absolutely despise the range from like FAU to Ole Miss or so. Interestingly, there was a pretty hard cutoff about where the last at-large was; I don't think anyone, outside of maybe Providence/Seton Hall and maybe if you stretch it Wake, have much of a case to beat out Texas A&M for the last at-large spot.</p><p><b>Bold</b> indicates autobids and <i>Italics</i> indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.</p><p><br /></p><p>1 seeds: <b>Purdue, Houston, UConn, North Carolina</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Tennessee, Arizona</b>, Marquette, Kansas</p><p>3 seeds: Alabama, Wisconsin, Baylor, Auburn</p><p>4 seeds: Illinois, Iowa State, BYU, <b>Dayton</b></p><p>5 seeds: <b>San Diego State</b>, Creighton, Duke, <b>FAU</b></p><p>6 seeds: Utah State, South Carolina, New Mexico, Kentucky</p><p>7 seeds: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Clemson</p><p>8 seeds: Colorado State, TCU, Utah, Ole Miss</p><p>9 seeds: Michigan State, <b>St. Mary's</b>, Boise State, <b>Indiana State</b></p><p>10 seeds: Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Cincinnati</p><p>11 seeds: Washington State, Northwestern, Mississippi State, <i>(Colorado, Butler)</i></p><p>12 seeds: <i>St. John's</i>, <b>Grand Canyon</b>, <i>Texas A&M</i>, <b>Princeton, McNeese</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Akron, Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Morehead State</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, <i>(Southern, South Dakota State), (Merrimack, Norfolk State)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last 4 byes: Cincinnati, Washington State, Northwestern, Mississippi State</p><p>Last 4 in: <i>(Colorado, Butler), (St. John's, Texas A&M)</i></p><p>First 4 out: Providence, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Gonzaga</p><p>Next 4 out: Xavier, Villanova, Oregon, Kansas State</p><p><br /></p><p>I also have a <a href=" https://thelowmajor.substack.com/p/skarmorys-bubble-watch">bubble watch</a>, hosted at my friends' blog, The Low Major; check it out, as it gives analysis on every bubble team! Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> to get an idea of the consensus of bracketologists, and to see where I differ.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 10</p><p>SEC: 9</p><p>Big Ten: 6</p><p>Big East: 5</p><p>Mountain West: 5</p>ACC: 4<p>Pac-12: 4</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-25157657748536570472024-01-30T17:10:00.000-08:002024-02-06T14:53:19.320-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 01/30/24<p>Welcome back to Bracketology! This week's edition features an incredibly cramped 7-8 line that I had no real idea what to do with – I think you could organize them about 15 different ways and I'd see the reasoning behind it. I think the most notable teams that are hard to place there are South Carolina and TCU, though Michigan State is also tough. The bubble (honestly, anything below Colorado) is a mess as well. Specifically, Villanova has flashes of 2023 Rutgers, and that's why they're left out as of now.</p><p>Also, games from today are not accounted for. <i>Jan. 30, 8:19 PM</i></p><p><b>Bold</b> indicates autobids and <i>Italics</i> indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.</p><p><br /></p><p>1 seeds: <b>Purdue, Houston, UConn, North Carolina</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Tennessee</b>, Wisconsin, <b>Arizona</b>, Kansas</p><p>3 seeds: Marquette, Alabama, Iowa State, Creighton</p><p>4 seeds: Auburn, Illinois, Duke, <b>Dayton</b></p><p>5 seeds: Kentucky, BYU, Texas Tech, <b>San Diego State</b></p><p>6 seeds: Baylor, New Mexico, Utah State, Clemson</p><p>7 seeds: <b>FAU</b>, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, TCU</p><p>8 seeds: South Carolina, St. John's, Northwestern, Michigan State</p><p>9 seeds: Utah, Ole Miss, Colorado State, Texas</p><p>10 seeds: Colorado, Nebraska, <b>St. Mary's, Indiana State</b></p><p>11 seeds: Washington State, Boise State, Providence, <i>(Texas A&M,</i> <i>Cincinnati)</i></p><p>12 seeds: <i>(Florida, </i><i>Villanova)</i>,<i> </i><b>Grand Canyon, </b><b>Princeton, McNeese</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Samford, Akron</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Louisiana Tech, Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Morehead State</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, <i>(South Dakota State, Southern), (Norfolk State, Merrimack)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last 4 byes: Nebraska, Washington State, Boise State, Providence</p><p>Last 4 in: <i>(Texas A&M, Cincinnati), (Florida, Memphis)</i></p><p>First 4 out: Villanova, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Kansas State</p><p>Next 4 out: Gonzaga, Virginia, Syracuse, Oregon</p><p><br /></p><p>Bubble watch is currently under construction! Hopefully, I can finish it off in the next few days. For now, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> to get an idea of where bracketologists have teams; as I actually had a fairly accurate prediction last year, my bracket will now be included among the ones listed there! :)</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 10</p><p>SEC: 9</p><p>Big Ten: 6</p><p>Big East: 5</p><p>Mountain West: 5</p><p>Pac-12: 4</p><p>ACC: 3</p><p>American: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-15185359244073776292024-01-23T11:30:00.000-08:002024-01-23T14:58:49.773-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 01/23/24<p>Welcome back to Bracketology! Expect this to be weekly for now; I don't see any reason it'll become more or less frequent for the next few weeks. Not much to say this time around, other than the fact that I do not understand why Villanova is generally projected so high in brackets, often on the 7/8 line. Or why BYU seems to be by consensus about a seed line above Iowa State. Or why Kentucky is generally a 3 seed. (Okay, maybe I have a few things to say.) <i>Jan. 23, 2:30 PM</i></p><p><br /></p><p>1 seeds: <b>Purdue, </b><b>UConn, </b><b>Houston, North Carolina</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Tennessee, Arizona</b>, Wisconsin, Kansas</p><p>3 seeds: Auburn, Baylor, Marquette, Illinois</p><p>4 seeds: Creighton, BYU, Iowa State, <b>Dayton</b></p><p>5 seeds: Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, <b>San Diego State</b></p><p>6 seeds: Duke, Colorado State, Texas Tech, Utah</p><p>7 seeds: Utah State, Clemson, <b>FAU</b>, Memphis</p><p>8 seeds: Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Michigan State, New Mexico</p><p>9 seeds: Mississippi State, TCU, St. John's, Ole Miss</p><p>10 seeds: Boise State, <b>St. Mary's</b>, Villanova, <b>Princeton</b></p><p>11 seeds: South Carolina, Nebraska, <b>Indiana State</b>, Northwestern</p><p>12 seeds: <i>(Cincinnati, Florida), (</i><i>Kansas State, </i><i>Wake Forest)</i>, <b>Grand Canyon, James Madison</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>McNeese, Samford, Akron, UC Irvine</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Louisiana Tech, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, High Point</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Montana, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>South Dakota State, Quinnipiac, <i>(Lipscomb, Norfolk State), (Southern, Merrimack)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last 4 byes: Boise State, South Carolina, Nebraska, Northwestern</p><p>Last 4 in: <i>(Cincinnati, Florida), (</i><i>Kansas State, </i><i>Wake Forest)</i></p><p>First 4 out: Colorado, Syracuse, Oregon, Virginia</p><p>Next 4 out: Providence, Texas, Xavier, Gonzaga</p><p><br /></p><p>I'm starting work on Bubble Watch this week, so expect that to come out probably next week or the week after (it'll be updated in a live setting as it was last year, I may also post it on substack; will see how it goes). For now, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> to get an idea of where bracketologists have teams; as I actually had a fairly accurate prediction last year, my bracket will now be included among the ones listed there! :)</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 10</p><p>SEC: 9</p><p>Big East: 6</p><p>Big Ten: 6</p><p>Mountain West: 5</p><p>ACC: 4</p><p>American: 2</p><p>Pac-12: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-46132929671826708152024-01-16T12:45:00.000-08:002024-01-16T12:46:07.942-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 01/16/24<p>Hey, it's an early bracketology! I'm making a poll each week, and since it's getting towards tournament season, I geared it to be a poll based off bracketology. That means I already had the top 6 seed lists ready, so I figured why not just finish it? I don't usually try my hand at bracketology until a couple weeks from now, so it may be a bit funky until then. <i>Jan. 16, 3:45 PM</i></p><p>1 seeds: <b>Purdue, Houston</b><b>, UConn</b>, Kansas</p><p>2 seeds: Wisconsin, <b>Arizona, North Carolina</b>, Baylor</p><p>3 seeds: <b>Tennessee</b>, Auburn, Duke, Illinois</p><p>4 seeds: Creighton, Kentucky, <b>Memphis, Dayton</b></p><p>5 seeds: Alabama, Marquette, BYU, Iowa State</p><p>6 seeds: <b>Utah State</b>, Clemson, San Diego State, Oklahoma</p><p>7 seeds: Ole Miss, Colorado State, Utah, FAU</p><p>8 seeds: TCU, St. John's, Texas Tech, Texas A&M</p><p>9 seeds: Mississippi State, Villanova, Nevada, Nebraska</p><p>10 seeds: Michigan State, South Carolina, <b>Princeton, </b><b>Grand Canyon</b></p><p>11 seeds: Boise State, Cincinnati, Northwestern, <i>Miami (FL), Seton Hall*</i></p><p>12 seeds: <i>Wake Forest, Florida*</i>, <b>Gonzaga, Indiana State, James Madison</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>McNeese, UC Irvine, Samford, Akron</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Louisiana Tech, UNCW, Vermont, High Point</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Lipscomb</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Colgate, Quinnipiac, <i>(Southern, South Dakota State), (Norfolk State, Central Connecticut)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last 4 byes: South Carolina, Boise State, Cincinnati, Northwestern</p><p>Last 4 in: <i>Miami (FL), </i><i>Seton Hall</i><i>, Wake Forest, </i><i>Florida</i></p><p>First 4 out: New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Kansas State</p><p>Next 4 out: Colorado, Texas, Providence, Butler</p><p><br /></p><p>*Given Florida and Wake have played eachother in the regular season, and Miami and Wake will play eachother in the regular season, they cannot play in the first four – Florida would move up to the 11 line and Seton Hall down to the 12 line in an actual bracket to make the first four matchups possible, making the first four matchups Miami vs. Florida and Seton Hall vs. Wake.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bubble watch will come in a couple weeks. For now, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> to get an idea of where bracketologists have teams; as I actually had a fairly accurate prediction last year, my bracket will now be included among the ones listed there! :)</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-63765361861445687302023-03-12T14:51:00.000-07:002023-03-12T14:51:43.607-07:00Skarmory's Bracketology – Live to the finish line!<p>It's that time of year again – a few days are left, so live bracket updates it is.</p><p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Last updated at 5:50 PM on 03/12/23 – all games are included in this, since all games are done now! Time to wait for the selection show!</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Alabama</b>, Kansas,<b> </b>Houston, <b>Purdue</b></p><p>2 seeds: UCLA, <b>Texas, Arizona, Marquette</b></p><p>3 seeds: Baylor, <b>Gonzaga</b>, Kansas State, UConn</p><p>4 seeds: Tennessee, Xavier, <b>San Diego State</b>, Indiana</p><p>5 seeds: Virginia, <b>Duke</b>, Iowa State, St. Mary's</p><p>6 seeds: Texas A&M, TCU, Miami (FL), Michigan State</p><p>7 seeds: Creighton, Missouri, Kentucky, <b>FAU</b></p><p>8 seeds: Northwestern, Maryland, Arkansas, West Virginia</p><p>9 seeds: <b>Memphis</b>, Illinois, Auburn, Iowa</p><p>10 seeds: Boise State, Penn State, USC, Utah State</p><p>11 seeds: Providence, Mississippi State, (<i>NC State</i><i>,</i><i> </i><i>Nevada),</i><i> (Rutgers</i><i>,</i><i> </i><i>Arizona State)</i></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Oral Roberts, </b><b>Charleston, Drake</b><b>,</b> <b>VCU</b></p><p>13 seeds:<b> </b><b>Kent State</b><b>,</b><b> Iona</b><b>,</b> <b>Louisiana</b><b>,</b><b> </b><b>UC Santa Barbara</b></p><p>14 seeds:<b> </b><b>Furman</b><b>, Kennesaw State</b><b>, Princeton, </b><b>Montana State</b></p><p>15 seeds:<b> Grand Canyon</b><b>, </b><b>Vermont</b><b>, Colgate</b><b>, UNC Asheville</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Northern Kentucky, Howard, <i>(Texas A&M-Corpus Christi</i></b><b><i>, </i></b><b><i>SE Missouri State</i></b><b><i>), (Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last four byes: USC, Utah State, Providence, Mississippi State</p><p>Last four in: (<i>NC State</i><i>,</i><i> </i><i>Nevada),</i><i> (Rutgers</i><i>,</i><i> </i><i>Arizona State)</i></p><p>First four out: Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Wisconsin</p><p>Next four out: Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Oregon, Michigan</p><p><br /></p><p>I think Pitt is pretty clearly the bottom of the ASU/OKST/Pitt trio for me, but it's close between those three. It depends how much they care about OKST's overall record and the metrics on ASU/Pitt – it could go any way, tbh.</p><p>The 4-6 lines were really tough for me. Same with the 8-9 lines, but less so there – I have no clue what to do with the 4-6 lines. I think this is where I'm going to drop a bit compared to the average bracketologist – don't rely on my predictions in that line, I feel pretty good about everywhere else (even the 8-9 line).</p><p>Check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! This bracketology has barely any affect on where I place teams in the bubble watch – I prefer to look at the general consensus for the watch and build out off that, while going off the consensus for bracketology would basically involve copying brackets from elsewhere, which... no, I'm not doing that.</p><p>Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a>, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big Ten: 9</p><p>SEC: 8</p><p>Big 12: 7</p><p>Big East: 5</p><p>ACC: 4</p><p>MWC: 4</p>Pac-12: 4<p>AAC: 2</p><p>WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-69809836119021101172023-03-12T14:50:00.001-07:002023-03-12T14:50:11.884-07:00Skarmory's Bubble Watch – 2023 (semi-live updates)<p>Welcome back to my bubble watch! <b>I will be updating each section somewhat live</b>, as games progress through the year – building a full watch every week is somewhat hard, so I've opted for this instead, and sections may not be up to date (I've included a date on each of them). Data is from <a href="https://warrennolan.com">warrennolan.com</a>, and non-D1 wins are not counted in records. Logos are from dep's emote servers on discord. I also reference <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com/">bracketmatrix.com</a> a lot, so feel free to take a look at that (shows the general consensus of bracketologists).</p><p>Everything should be updated. See you next year! :) Maybe I'll make some blog post after the selection show, dunno. <i>Mar. 12, 5:50 PM</i></p><p>Well, conference tournament season has almost ended, and things are settling in. I doubt any major changes will result from today's games – remember how weakly conference tournaments, especially late ones, are weighed (see '22 Texas A&M). That means we're pretty much set up with our current teams in their current groups, and nothing's going to shift them. Aaaaah, I'm excited for the selection show! Just 13.5 hours away! <i>Mar. 12, 4:23 AM</i></p><div><br /></div><h2>American</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Houston, Memphis</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: N/A</div><div><br /></div><div>The championship game is starting soon between Houston and Memphis, and that'll only affect seeding (and probably only Memphis' seeding as well). This conference has been destined to be 2-bid for ages, ever since UCF went on a losing streak to knock them out of the at-large conversation right before I started the watch for this year.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":AACHouston3:" aria-label=":AACHouston3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="853434659916480543" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853434659916480543.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Houston (31-3 (17-1 AAC), NET 1, SOS 96, 7-2 Q1, 8-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":AACMemphis1:" aria-label=":AACMemphis1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="853436002587770882" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853436002587770882.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Memphis (26-8 (13-5 AAC), NET 29, SOS 73, 4-4 Q1, 9-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><h2>ACC</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Duke, Virginia, Miami (FL)</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, Pittsburgh</div><div><br /></div><div>I don't even know what number to give the ACC now. 5 seems likely, though we could easily see one of NC State or Pittsburgh miss, and Clemson is a potential dark horse bubble candidate. North Carolina probably should be off the watch entirely, but they're still here because... I don't really know why, actually.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":ACCDuke4:" aria-label=":ACCDuke4:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="853760277262499860" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853760277262499860.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Duke (26-8 (14-6 ACC), NET 16, SOS 57, 5-6 Q1, 7-2 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":Virginia~1:" aria-label=":Virginia~1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="715040508942221362" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/715040508942221362.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Virginia (25-7 (15-5 ACC), NET 26, SOS 71, 5-5 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":ACCMiamiFL3:" aria-label=":ACCMiamiFL3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="853760535697555486" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853760535697555486.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Miami (FL) (25-7 (15-5 ACC), NET 35, SOS 81, 5-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":ACCNorthCarolinaState2:" aria-label=":ACCNorthCarolinaState2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="853760658834849815" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853760658834849815.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>NC State (23-10 (12-8 ACC), NET 45, SOS 78, 1-6 Q1, 7-4 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>I don't think losing to Clemson by 25+ for the second time in two weeks is what NC State needed. That tanked their efficiency metrics some, and with just 1 Q1 win... things are getting dicey. NC State is now just the third to last team in on bracketmatrix, and while they're still in a lot of brackets, things are trending the wrong direction – the one win against Duke in Q1 may not be enough to hold up their resume, especially with 4 Q2 losses (vs. Clemson and against em in the ACCT; vs. Pitt; @ Cuse). I would guess NC State is on the right side of the bubble as of now, but when your resume looks somewhat similar to UNC's... that's not a good sign.</div><div><br /></div><img alt=":ACCNorthCarolina4:" aria-label=":ACCNorthCarolina4:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="853760583231602688" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853760583231602688.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>North Carolina (20-13 (11-9 ACC), NET 46, SOS 49, 1-9 Q1, 6-4 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div>I still think North Carolina is done, but I'm just very slightly worried... I really don't know what to say if UNC sneaks into the tournament. I do doubt it actually happens – there's not much of a case for them, but honestly, they're not that much worse resume-wise than NC State, at least from my view (KPI and SOR disagree – there's a decent gap, from 38 to 46 in KPI and 40 to 52 in SOR with NC State ahead). Combine that with metrics hanging around the high 30s to mid 40s, and I find it hard to knock the Tar Heels off the watch entirely.</div></div><div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":ACCClemson5:" aria-label=":ACCClemson5:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="853759531276042290" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853759531276042290.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Clemson (23-10 (14-6 ACC), NET 60, SOS 102, 4-4 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 2 Q4 losses) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Clemson did pick up a 26 point win against NC State in the ACC tournament, but they followed that up by getting dominated by Virginia, so they didn't get much of a boost overall from those two games. I'll let the blurb from last time do the talking, since not much changed... I still don't think Clemson has a good chance to make it, but after seeing how close Dayton was last year, I feel like leaving the Tigers off the watch at this point is a mistake. The biggest problem they have is the 2 Q3 and 2 Q4 losses – the ones at South Carolina and against Loyola-Chicago were early season, but they picked up bad losses solidly into conference play as well, specifically at Boston College and Louisville. That many bad losses is a death sentence for most teams, and it probably should be one for Clemson as well – they do have positive or .500 records in both of the top two quadrants, including wins vs. Duke, at NC State and at Pittsburgh, but when those are your best wins, you really need to have a strong resume elsewhere, and they definitely don't. It's not like the predictive metrics are giving them a boost either – they're as low as 63rd in KenPom. I do think there's a chance the committee doesn't weigh the non-conference losses too heavily, but I don't think that'd be enough to get Clemson in; if there is a surprise team that makes it, though, I'd count on it being Clemson.</div><div><br /></div><img alt=":ACCPittsburgh5:" aria-label=":ACCPittsburgh5:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="853760806369624075" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/853760806369624075.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Pittsburgh (22-11 (14-6 ACC), NET 67, SOS 91, 4-4 Q1, 3-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>A 27-point loss to Duke that felt much worse than that did not help Pittsburgh in the metrics. Already sitting around 60th in metrics in general and as low as 66th in KenPom before that game, they're down to 77th in live KenPom, and they're now mostly hanging around the high 60s to the low 70s; for a team with 7 losses below Q1, I don't know if they can afford that. It seems like overall, Pittsburgh is a generally liked team by bracketologists; most years, I'd doubt that this team would make it, but combine a weak bubble with some nice wins in Q1 (@ NC State, also @ Northwestern by 29 in Q1-A), and they might be in. However, I'm personally not thrilled, especially with losses at Notre Dame and vs. Florida State, along with a pretty rough 3-5 Q2 record. It's time to sweat it out and see if Pitt's done enough.</div><div><br /></div></div></div><h2>Big 12</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia, TCU</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: Oklahoma State</div><div><br /></div><div>Texas took the Big 12 tournament – 7 teams are locks for the NCAA tourney, and Oklahoma State is right on the bubble. Could we see 80% of the conference make the NCAA tournament? That would have to be a record, and it'd be a fitting one for possibly the best conference in college basketball history.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><div><div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":B12Texas1:" aria-label=":B12Texas1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="854111639875747870" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854111639875747870.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Texas (26-8 (12-6 Big 12), NET 7, SOS 6, 14-8 Q1, 4-0 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><div><br /></div></div></div><img alt=":B12Kansas5:" aria-label=":B12Kansas5:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="854108279071047700" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854108279071047700.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Kansas (27-7 (13-5 Big 12), NET 9, SOS 1, 17-7 Q1, 4-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div></div></div></div><div><div><div><img alt=":B12Baylor2:" aria-label=":B12Baylor2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="854107838045880321" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854107838045880321.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Baylor (22-10 (11-7 Big 12), NET 15, SOS 2, 11-10 Q1, 4-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div></div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B12IowaState7:" aria-label=":B12IowaState7:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="854108106149330985" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854108106149330985.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Iowa State (19-13 (9-9 Big 12), NET 20, SOS 4, 10-11 Q1, 2-2 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":B12KansasState2:" aria-label=":B12KansasState2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="854109345276100689" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854109345276100689.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Kansas State (23-9 (11-7 Big 12), NET 23, SOS 16, 9-8 Q1, 4-1 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar.</i></b><b><i> 12</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><img alt=":B12WestVirginia3:" aria-label=":B12WestVirginia3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="854111801787285515" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854111801787285515.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>West Virginia (19-14 (7-11 Big 12), NET 24, SOS 5, 6-13 Q1, 6-1 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></span><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B12TexasChristian3:" aria-label=":B12TexasChristian3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="854111514500137012" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854111514500137012.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>TCU (21-12 (9-9 Big 12), NET 28, SOS 11, 8-10 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><br /></div></div></div></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><div><br /></div></div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B12OklahomaState2:" aria-label=":B12OklahomaState2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="854109529176276992" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/854109529176276992.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Oklahoma State (18-15 (8-10 Big 12), NET 43, SOS 8, 6-12 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>After knocking off Oklahoma to start off the Big 12 tournament, the Cowboys dropped the quarterfinal game to Texas, ending their season; they now have to wait and see if their name gets called on Sunday. They sit at 18-15 overall, with a 6-12 Q1 record that's split up into 1-11 Q1-A and 5-1 Q1-B (I don't really know what to make of the further divisions of Q1, though...). Their best win, and only Q1-A win, is at Iowa State – with a resume like this, I don't know if having that weak of a top win is enough to get them in, considering how heavily they weigh on having strong wins. The loss to Southern Illinois is another point that'll hurt them a lot – having a Q3 loss among their 15 losses isn't helpful, and that loss count might be too much. The metrics are the best thing they have – most are low 40s or even into the 30s, which is better than pretty much the rest of the bubble. They remind me a lot of Oklahoma last year – honestly, overall, they're eerily similar, with OKST having 2 more Q1 wins and 2 less Q2 wins, and everything else being about the same. That team was the second team out last year.</div><div><br /></div><h2>Big East</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Connecticut, Marquette, Creighton, Xavier</div><div>Should be in: Providence</div><div>Work left to do: N/A</div><div><br /></div><div>The only slight question mark left in the Big East is Providence, and even then, they're pretty safe. Marquette absolutely demolished Xavier in the Big East championship game – they may get a 2 seed, and I think UConn could do some serious damage in the Big Dance as well.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":cbbUConn:" aria-label=":cbbUConn:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="1039306041021714545" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/1039306041021714545.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Connecticut (25-8 (13-7 Big East), NET 8, SOS 42, 6-6 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":BEMarquette2:" aria-label=":BEMarquette2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="855881514596171786" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/855881514596171786.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Marquette (28-6 (17-3 Big East), NET 12, SOS 45, 7-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":BECreighton2:" aria-label=":BECreighton2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="855881155572531220" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/855881155572531220.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Creighton (21-12 (14-6 Big East), NET 17, SOS 25, 3-8 Q1, 6-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><img alt=":BEXavier1:" aria-label=":BEXavier1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="855882062678589470" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/855882062678589470.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Xavier (25-9 (15-5 Big East), NET 22, SOS 30, 8-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><div><img alt=":BEProvidence2:" aria-label=":BEProvidence2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="855881601082195998" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/855881601082195998.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Providence (21-11 (13-7 Big East), NET 55, SOS 62, 3-8 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div></div><div>Well... Providence's season is over now, and it did not end well. They closed the season on a three game losing streak – a loss at home to Xavier, then one at home to Seton Hall by 24 (which did eventually fall to Q3), and then a loss to UConn in the conference tournament where they sort of started coming back after an awful first half but where they never really had a chance. At this point, pretty much everything on Providence's resume screams mediocre. When the committee convened, they held something like a 4-8 Q1 record (though with 2 or 3 Q1-A wins), with 2 Q3 losses and only 3 wins in Q2, along with middling metrics hanging across the 40s. Now, they're down to just 3 Q1 wins, albeit with one of the Q3 losses now being in Q2; those changes may not be taken into consideration by the committee, depending on when they convened and how much they changed today. None of the resume is particularly impressive, but it's not awful, and the bubble is relatively weak this year, so they're probably fine, but... they did not make things easy on themselves at the end.</div><div><br /></div><h2>Big Ten</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: Rutgers, Wisconsin</div><div><br /></div><div>Penn State's run to the Big Ten finals is enough to lock them up. Sure, conference tournament runs weren't weighed too heavily last year with Texas A&M, but Penn State was already probably in before the conference tournament, and they've picked up 3 Q1 wins in this event. I don't see any way they miss now, so they're a lock. That leaves the last true bubble candidate as Rutgers, and they seem to be on the right side of things as of now, but they're certainly not safe – I've also kept Wisconsin on, at least for now, but I don't really think they have a chance at the tournament.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B10Purdue1:" aria-label=":B10Purdue1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="856620038600785971" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856620038600785971.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Purdue (29-5 (15-5 B1G), NET 5, SOS 21, 10-4 Q1, 9-1 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B10Indiana3:" aria-label=":B10Indiana3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="856619093792260126" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856619093792260126.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Indiana (22-11 (12-8 B1G), NET 30, SOS 12, 6-9 Q1, 6-2 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><div><img alt=":B10Maryland3:" aria-label=":B10Maryland3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="856619299576610837" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856619299576610837.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Maryland (21-12 (11-9 B1G), NET 31, SOS 36, 3-10 Q1, 6-2 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><div><div></div></div><img alt=":B10MichiganState1:" aria-label=":B10MichiganState1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="856619453914808380" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856619453914808380.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Michigan State (19-12 (11-8 B1G), NET 33, SOS 7, 5-9 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B10Illinois2:" aria-label=":B10Illinois2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="856619030559457320" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856619030559457320.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Illinois (20-12 (11-9 B1G), NET 34, SOS 31, 2-11 Q1, 7-1 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":B10Iowa3:" aria-label=":B10Iowa3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="856619165917380639" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856619165917380639.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Iowa (19-13 (11-9 B1G), NET 39, SOS 22, 4-7 Q1, 9-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 10</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: #2c3032; --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: #36393f; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B10Northwestern2:" aria-label=":B10Northwestern2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="856619767602610237" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856619767602610237.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Northwestern (21-11 (12-8 B1G), NET 41, SOS 37, 7-6 Q1, 4-5 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":B10PennState1:" aria-label=":B10PennState1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="856619944921399296" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856619944921399296.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Penn State (22-12 (10-10 B1G), NET 49, SOS 28, 7-7 Q1, 5-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":B10Rutgers1:" aria-label=":B10Rutgers1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="856620191651069972" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856620191651069972.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Rutgers (19-14 (10-10 B1G), NET 40, SOS 41, 4-7 Q1, 6-3 Q2, 4 Q3 losses) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Rutgers gave Purdue a fight, but it wasn't enough, and the Scarlet Knights bowed out of the B1G tournament in the quarterfinals. As such, it's time to wait and see if what they did was enough – the only real strikingly bad part of their resume are the 4 Q3 losses, being vs. Seton Hall, vs. Nebraska, vs. Temple in Connecticut, and at Minnesota. Outside of that, they're a decent 5-7 in Q1, headlined by a great win at Purdue, and they have an also decent 6-3 Q2 record – however, their resume metrics sit across the 50s because of the bad losses. The predictive metrics they have are all top 40, which helps quite a bit – I'd think everything combined, they're in, but they're not in by much and could still miss.</div></div><div><br /></div></div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":B10Wisconsin5:" aria-label=":B10Wisconsin5:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="856620348128886825" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856620348128886825.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Wisconsin (17-14 (9-11 B1G), NET 80, SOS 13, 5-7 Q1, 6-6 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Oh no. Wisconsin absolutely could not afford a first round conference tourney loss to Ohio State, and that's exactly what they got. Tip: Don't go down 27 points in what is practically an elimination game. The Badgers are very much on the wrong side of the bubble now, but I'm not going to drop them at this point – the show is just a few hours away at this point, there's no point in really removing them incase the committee just ignores the bad metrics. The 5 Q1 wins are nice, but a 6-6 Q2 record and 7 total losses below Q1 are both not ideal, and their predictive metrics are completely in the gutter; their highest resume metric is at 50 as well, so it's looking really bad. Time to wait and see for Wisconsin, but a trip to the NIT seems pretty certain now.</div><div><br /></div><h2><b>Mountain West</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: San Diego State, Boise State</div><div>Should be in: Utah State</div><div>Work left to do: Nevada</div><div><br /></div><div>The Mountain West tournament probably secured Utah State's spot – sure, they didn't win it, but they picked up a 2nd Q1 win against Boise, which should help them out some. Meanwhile, Nevada's game one loss to San Jose State leaves them right on the bubble heading into the selection show.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":MWCSanDiegoState2:" aria-label=":MWCSanDiegoState2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="857343759262810152" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/857343759262810152.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>San Diego State (26-6 (15-3 MWC), NET 14, SOS 47, 5-5 Q1, 6-1 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></b><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":MWCBoiseState2:" aria-label=":MWCBoiseState2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="857343095062003792" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/857343095062003792.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Boise State (23-9 (13-5 MWC), NET 27, SOS 60, 3-5 Q1, 9</b><b>-2</b><b> </b><b>Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":MWCUtahState2:" aria-label=":MWCUtahState2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="857343986984812574" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/857343986984812574.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Utah State (25-8 (13-5 MWC), NET 19, SOS 72, 2-5 Q1, 9-1 Q2, 2 Q4 losses) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Utah State is an incredibly weird team. They're 0-5 in Q1-A, they've lost probably the two easiest games on their schedule, and in the 26 other games between Q1-B and the top of Q4 they're 25-1, with the one loss being at San Jose State. In those 25 wins, they have 2 Q1 wins (both against Boise), 9 Q2 wins and 13 Q3 wins, along with a Q4 win. I... really don't know what to make of that resume, and the two main resume metrics seem to disagree with eachother – USU is 15th in KPI and 30th in SOR. Meanwhile, the predictive metrics love them, and even BPI/Sagarin which are low on the MW have them at least top 40 – they're as high as 18th in KenPom. All that taken together, and I guess this is a tournament team? It's a weird situation though, and if there's a random snub, it could easily be Utah State – remember, one of their Q1 wins was in the conference tournament, so it may not be weighed much.</div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><h3>Work left to do</h3></div><div><div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":MWCNevada2:" aria-label=":MWCNevada2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="857343463485865994" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/857343463485865994.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Nevada (21-10 (12-6 MWC), NET 37, SOS 70, 4-5 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Why, Nevada, why? I mean, I can't complain about the SJSU loss because I wanted SJSU to win (go Spartans! been rooting for em all year), but losing your final three, being two Q3 games and a Q2-B game? Yikes. At this point, there's nothing left to do but hope what they did in their 21-7 start is enough – home wins against all the other top MW teams are all solid, three being Q1, and SDSU is a Q1-A win now, but their Q2 record has fallen to .500. Combine that with metrics all over the map where none of them are particularly special, and waiting until Sunday will be a very tense affair. They're currently projected out by bracketmatrix, but they're in a fair number of brackets – I don't know what to expect with them.</div><div><br /></div></div></div></div><h2><b>Pac-12</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: Arizona State</div><div><br /></div><div>Oregon went out in the semifinals to UCLA, and now their resume looks like a worse version of UNC's... which is a team that is barely hanging onto a spot in the watch. Goodbye, Ducks, 19-14 in the Pac-12 wasn't enough to cut it this year, and honestly I don't know the last time it would be good enough to cut it. We've got three certain teams – Arizona with the autobid, UCLA just barely missing a 1 seed and likely ending up as the top 2, and USC locking in a spot just before Selection Sunday, leaving Arizona State as the question mark. If they make it, the Pac-12 should get 4 bids; if they miss, the Pac-12 should get 3.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></b><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":ucla:" aria-label=":ucla:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="656329346197225494" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/656329346197225494.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>UCLA (29-5 (18-2 Pac-12), NET 3, SOS 44, 8-5 Q1, 9-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":P12Arizona1:" aria-label=":P12Arizona1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="857743485087252491" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/857743485087252491.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Arizona (28-6 (14-6 Pac-12), NET 10, SOS 46, 9-2 Q1, 7-4 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":P12SouthernCalifornia3:" aria-label=":P12SouthernCalifornia3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="857729551102378074" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/857729551102378074.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>USC (22-10 (14-6 Pac-12), NET 50, SOS 63, 3-6 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div></div></div><div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div></div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":P12ArizonaState2:" aria-label=":P12ArizonaState2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="857728807146356832" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/857728807146356832.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Arizona State (22-12 (11-9 Pac-12), NET 66, SOS 55, 5-6 Q1, 4-5 Q2, 1 Q4 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The Pac-12 tournament has come and gone, and Arizona State managed to pick up a win over USC before getting knocked out by Arizona. That gives them a 5th Q1 win on the year – still, both their Q1 and Q2 records are below .500, though wins at Arizona and against (admittedly, an injured) Creighton in Vegas are Q1-A. They also have a pretty terrible loss at Texas Southern, which is just a pure Q4 loss (though the Tigers did manage to sneak into the NCAA tournament after going on a run as the bottom seed in their conference tournament), and the metrics don't seem to like them at all – they seem to be hanging around the mid-60s in general in the predictives, and around 50th in the resume metrics. All in all, Arizona State is right on the bubble going into Sunday, and there's nothing they can do after going out in the semifinals to Arizona.</div><div><br /></div><h2>SEC</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Missouri</div><div>Should be in: Mississippi State</div><div>Work left to do: Vanderbilt</div><div><br /></div><div>Vanderbilt went out in the semis, so it's a likely 8-bid SEC, unless something weird happens. Mississippi State isn't quite a lock, but they're fairly safe and a should be in team. Alabama grabbed the autobid with a blowout win of Texas A&M in the conference tournament final, but that game is largely irrelevant except it probably prevents A&M from moving up a seed line.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></b><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":alabama:" aria-label=":alabama:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="650179821090897963" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/650179821090897963.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Alabama (29-5 (16-2 SEC), NET 2, SOS 10, 13-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":SECTennessee1:" aria-label=":SECTennessee1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="858451064009261076" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858451064009261076.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Tennessee (23-10 (11-7 SEC), NET 4, SOS 32, 7-7 Q1, 3-3 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><div><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":SECTexasAM8:" aria-label=":SECTexasAM8:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="858451155478249532" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858451155478249532.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Texas A&M (25-9 (15-3 SEC), NET 18, SOS 56, 7-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 2 Q4 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><img alt=":SECArkansas5:" aria-label=":SECArkansas5:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="858450358836527144" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858450358836527144.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Arkansas (20-13 (8-10 SEC), NET 21, SOS 27, 4-10 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><img alt=":SECKentucky4:" aria-label=":SECKentucky4:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="858450602363584532" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858450602363584532.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Kentucky (21-11 (12-6 SEC), NET 25, SOS 24, 6-7 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":SECAuburn2:" aria-label=":SECAuburn2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="858450419142885398" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858450419142885398.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Auburn (20-12 (10-8 SEC), NET 32, SOS 18, 3-10 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":SECMissouri2:" aria-label=":SECMissouri2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="858450921901391882" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858450921901391882.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Missouri (24-9 (11-7 SEC), NET 42, SOS 35, 6-9 Q1, 4-0 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div></div></div></div></div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":SECMississippiState3:" aria-label=":SECMississippiState3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="858450842473463838" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858450842473463838.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; color: #dcddde; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Mississippi State (21-12 (8-10 SEC), NET 48, SOS 37, 4-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>A quarterfinals blowout exit to Alabama leaves Mississippi State sitting likely just on the right side of the bubble, waiting for the selection show in about 14.5 hours. The metrics for them (both predictive and resume) have fallen to the high 40s-mid 50s range, which isn't ideal. Still, their resume seems okay – the lack of bad losses compared to other bubble teams (just 1 Q3 loss, @ Georgia), and the two Q1-A wins among their 8 top two quadrant wins (vs. Marquette in Fort Myers, @ Arkansas) will help boost them slightly above the cut line, and I think they're far enough above it to be considered a should be in team at this moment. I expect to hear their name called Sunday evening, but it's not a guarantee.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(2, 2, 2, 0.06); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d6d2cd; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(2, 2, 2, 0.06); border: 0px; color: #e0e1e5; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":SECVanderbilt3:" aria-label=":SECVanderbilt3:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="858451248720904234" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/858451248720904234.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Vanderbilt (20-14 (11-7 SEC), NET 81, SOS 19, 5-11 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Oh, Vanderbilt, what do I do with you? The Commodores were debatably the hottest team in college basketball, before losing to Texas A&M in the SEC semifinals – after starting 10-12, they won 10 out of their next 11, with the loss being to... <i>checks notes</i> LSU on the road??? What? That's a Q3 loss and one of three bad losses on their resume, joining home losses to Southern Miss (Q3) and Grambling (Q4). That, combined with horrible efficiency metrics (80th in live KenPom as of now, the others aren't much better), has left Vandy in terrible position, but they've certainly tried to fight their way into the field – in their 10-1 stretch, they have wins vs. Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State, wins @ Kentucky and against Kentucky in the SEC tourney in Nashville, and even a home/road sweep of Florida for another Q1/Q2 win; they're a total of 4-0 Q1, 3-0 Q2, and 3-1 Q3 in that stretch. If only they'd beaten LSU... I doubt it's enough to get them in, given the rest of their year is awful, but they've made an incredible push that got them reasonably in the picture. I think the loss to Texas A&M is enough to knock them out, but I've kept them around incase the committee throws its yearly curveball at Vanderbilt.</div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><h2>Others</h2></div><div><br /></div><div>Autobids: Gonzaga, FAU, Oral Roberts, Charleston</div><div>Locks: St. Mary's</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: N/A</div><div><br /></div><div>FAU clinched the C-USA autobid by beating UAB, which means there's no movement left in this section. Oral Roberts and Charleston will be potentially scary 12 seeds, FAU is around the 8 line, Gonzaga could get a 2 but is most likely a 3, and St. Mary's seems to be about a 5 or 6.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Autobids</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":WCCGonzaga1:" aria-label=":WCCGonzaga1:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="859558016960167936" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/859558016960167936.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>Gonzaga (27-5 (14-2 WCC), NET 6, SOS 54</b><b>, 6-4 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) –</b><b> <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img alt=":fau:" aria-label=":fau:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="1060723268769816627" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/1060723268769816627.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>FAU (29-3 (18-2 C-USA), NET 13, SOS 152, 2-1 Q1, 4-2 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><img alt=":oralroberts:" aria-label=":oralroberts:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-id="1080958254118604920" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/1080958254118604920.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: #282b2c; --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d6d2cd; background-color: #313338; border: 0px; color: #e0e1e5; font-family: "gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: break-spaces; width: 1.375em;" /> <b>Oral Roberts (26-4 (18-0 Summit), NET 36, SOS 202, 0-4 Q1, 1-0 Q2) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><b><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":CAACharleston2:" aria-label=":CAACharleston2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="856636226952757269" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/856636226952757269.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span>Charleston (30-3 (16-2 CAA), NET 51, SOS 333, 0-1 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><span class="emojiContainer-2XKwXX" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" data-darkreader-inline-outline="" face=""gg sans", "Noto Sans", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" role="button" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: rgba(3, 4, 4, 0.07); --darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; --darkreader-inline-color: #d3cfc9; --darkreader-inline-outline: initial; background-color: rgba(4, 4, 5, 0.07); border: 0px; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: break-spaces;" tabindex="0"><img alt=":WCCSaintMarys2:" aria-label=":WCCSaintMarys2:" class="emoji" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" data-id="859562233884049459" data-type="emoji" draggable="false" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/emojis/859562233884049459.webp?size=96&quality=lossless" style="--darkreader-inline-border-bottom: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-left: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-right: initial; --darkreader-inline-border-top: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 1.375em; margin: 0px; object-fit: contain; padding: 0px; text-indent: -9999px; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.375em;" /> </span><b>St. Mary's (25-7 (14-2 WCC), NET 11, SOS 77, 2-3 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><h2><b>Statistics:</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>This portion will cover teams moving in/out across the past week-ish. (It's pretty loose, so I just leave here what I think makes sense to include at this point.)</div><div><br /></div><div>+ Vanderbilt</div><div><br /></div><div>– Oregon, Michigan</div><div><br /></div><div>Teams on my radar: Oregon, Michigan</div><div><br /></div><div>Total locks/confirmed autobids: 41 (9 clinched autobids, 3 predicted autobids)</div><div><br /></div><div>Total should be in: 3</div><div><br /></div><div>Total work left to do: 10</div><div><br /></div><div>Spots vs. teams included (accounting for autobids): 36, 32 taken by locks/should be in, 4 spots for 10 work left to do</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog sometimes, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, see you around!</div>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-58241609155380838222023-03-08T17:05:00.002-08:002023-03-08T17:05:45.776-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 03/08/23<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Posted at 8:05 PM on 03/08/23 – any games ending before that time are included, any games after are not.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Kansas, </b><b>Alabama, </b><b>Houston, UCLA</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Purdue</b>, Texas, Baylor, Arizona</p><p>3 seeds: Kansas State, <b>Gonzaga</b>, Tennessee, <b>Marquette</b></p><p>4 seeds: UConn, Xavier, Indiana, <b>San Diego State</b></p><p>5 seeds: <b>Virginia</b>, Miami (FL), St. Mary's, Iowa State</p><p>6 seeds: TCU, Creighton, Michigan State, Duke</p><p>7 seeds: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Northwestern</p><p>8 seeds: Maryland, West Virginia, Illinois, Auburn</p><p>9 seeds: Arkansas, <b>FAU</b>, Iowa, Boise State</p><p>10 seeds: USC, Memphis, Providence, NC State</p><p>11 seeds: Mississippi State, Nevada, (<i>Utah State</i><i>, </i><i>Penn State</i><i>), (</i><i>Rutgers, </i><i>Pittsburgh)</i></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Oral Roberts, </b><b>Charleston, Drake, Utah Valley</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>VCU, </b><b>Toledo</b><b>, </b><b>Yale</b><b>, Iona</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Louisiana, Kennesaw State</b><b>, </b><b>Furman, UC Irvine</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Montana State, </b><b>Vermont</b><b>, Colgate</b><b>, UNC Asheville</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Grambling, Northern Kentucky, <i>(NC Central, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), (SE Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last four byes: Providence, NC State, Mississippi State, Nevada</p><p>Last four in: (<i>Utah State</i><i>, </i><i>Penn State</i><i>), (</i><i>Rutgers, </i><i>Pittsburgh)</i></p><p>First four out: Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Oregon</p><p>Next four out: North Carolina, Michigan, Clemson, Vanderbilt</p><p><br /></p><p>Check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! This bracketology has barely any affect on where I place teams in the bubble watch – I prefer to look at the general consensus for the watch and build out off that, while going off the consensus for bracketology would basically involve copying brackets from elsewhere, which... no, I'm not doing that.</p><p>Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a>, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big Ten: 9</p><p>SEC: 8</p><p>Big 12: 7</p><p>ACC: 5</p><p>Big East: 5</p><p>MWC: 4</p>Pac-12: 3<p>AAC: 2</p><p>WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-11010471921346742332023-03-05T19:30:00.001-08:002023-03-05T19:30:50.377-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 03/05/23<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Posted at 10:30 PM on 03/05/23 – any games ending before that time are included, any games after are not.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Kansas, </b><b>Alabama, </b><b>Houston, UCLA</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Purdue</b>, Texas, Baylor, Arizona</p><p>3 seeds: Kansas State, Tennessee, <b>Marquette, Gonzaga</b></p><p>4 seeds: UConn, Xavier, Indiana, St. Mary's</p><p>5 seeds: <b>San Diego State, Virginia</b>, TCU, Miami (FL)</p><p>6 seeds: Iowa State, Creighton, Michigan State, Duke</p><p>7 seeds: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Northwestern</p><p>8 seeds: Maryland, Illinois, Arkansas, <b>FAU</b></p><p>9 seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Iowa, Boise State</p><p>10 seeds: USC, Providence, NC State, Memphis</p><p>11 seeds: Mississippi State, Nevada, (<i>Penn State, Utah State), (</i><i>Rutgers, </i><i>Pittsburgh)</i></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Oral Roberts, </b><b>Charleston, Drake, Utah Valley</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>VCU, </b><b>Toledo</b><b>, </b><b>Yale</b><b>, Iona</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Kennesaw State</b><b>, </b><b>UC Santa Barbara, </b><b>Furman, Montana State</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Vermont</b><b>, Colgate</b><b>, South Alabama, UNC Asheville</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Youngstown State</b><b>, </b><b>Grambling, <i>(Northwestern State, NC Central), (SE Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last four byes: NC State, Memphis, Mississippi State, Nevada</p><p>Last four in: (<i>Penn State</i><i>, Utah State)</i><i>, (</i><i>Rutgers</i><i>, Pittsburgh)</i></p><p>First four out: Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Oregon</p><p>Next four out: North Carolina, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Clemson</p><p><br /></p><p>Check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! This bracketology has barely any affect on where I place teams in the bubble watch – I prefer to look at the general consensus for the watch and build out off that, while going off the consensus for bracketology would basically involve copying brackets from elsewhere, which... no, I'm not doing that.</p><p>Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a>, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big Ten: 9</p><p>SEC: 8</p><p>Big 12: 7</p><p>ACC: 5</p><p>Big East: 5</p><p>MWC: 4</p>Pac-12: 3<p>AAC: 2</p><p>WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-87698068855267736282023-02-26T18:18:00.001-08:002023-03-05T16:20:01.281-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/26/23<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Updated for games on 2/26/23.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Alabama, </b><b>Kansas, </b><b>Houston, Purdue</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>UCLA</b>, Texas, Baylor, Arizona</p><p>3 seeds: Kansas State, Tennessee, <b>Marquette, Gonzaga</b></p><p>4 seeds: Indiana, UConn, <b>Virginia</b>, St. Mary's</p><p>5 seeds: Miami (FL), Iowa State, <b>San Diego State</b>, Xavier</p><p>6 seeds: TCU, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland</p><p>7 seeds: Kentucky, Providence, Creighton, Duke</p><p>8 seeds: Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas</p><p>9 seeds: Texas A&M, Nevada, <b>FAU</b>, NC State</p><p>10 seeds: West Virginia, Rutgers, USC, Auburn</p><p>11 seeds: Memphis, Boise State, <i>(Mississippi State, Pittsburgh), (Arizona State, Oklahoma State)</i></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Oral Roberts, </b><b>Charleston, Bradley</b><b>, Liberty</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>VCU, </b><b>Utah Valley</b><b>, </b><b>Yale</b><b>, </b><b>Toledo</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Marshall, Iona</b><b>, </b><b>Eastern Washington, Furman</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>UC Santa Barbara, Vermont</b><b>, Colgate</b><b>, UNC Asheville</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Youngstown State</b><b>, </b><b>Northwestern State, <i>(Grambling, Norfolk State), (Morehead State, Wagner)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last four byes: USC, Auburn, Memphis, Boise State</p><p>Last four in: <i>(Mississippi State, Pittsburgh), (Arizona State, Oklahoma State)</i></p><p>First four out: Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin, Penn State</p><p>Next four out: Clemson, New Mexico, Texas Tech, North Carolina</p><p><br /></p><p>Check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! This bracketology has barely any affect on where I place teams in the bubble watch – I prefer to look at the general consensus for the watch and build out off that, while going off the consensus for bracketology would basically involve copying brackets from elsewhere, which... no, I'm not doing that.</p><p>Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a>, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 8</p>Big Ten: 8<p>SEC: 8</p><p>ACC: 5</p><p>Big East: 5</p>Pac-12: 4<p>MWC: 3</p><p>AAC: 2</p><p>WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-9184673909026104422023-02-19T18:25:00.004-08:002023-02-19T18:25:49.521-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/19/23<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Updated for games (outside Boise State-UNLV) on 2/19/23.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue</b></p><p>2 seeds: Texas, <b>Arizona</b>, UCLA, Baylor</p><p>3 seeds: <b>Virginia</b>, Kansas State, Tennessee, Indiana</p><p>4 seeds: <b>Marquette</b>, Iowa State, <b>Gonzaga</b>, Xavier</p><p>5 seeds: UConn, Miami (FL), St. Mary's, Creighton</p><p>6 seeds: <b>San Diego State</b>, Northwestern, TCU, Providence</p><p>7 seeds: Michigan State, Maryland, Illinois, Duke</p><p>8 seeds: Iowa, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri</p><p>9 seeds: Nevada, Texas A&M, Rutgers, <b>FAU</b></p><p>10 seeds: NC State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kentucky</p><p>11 seeds: Boise State, Wisconsin, <i>(Memphis, Mississippi State), (USC, Pittsburgh)</i></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Charleston, Oral Roberts, Kent State, Liberty</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>Drake</b><b>, Utah Valley</b><b>, VCU, Southern Miss</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Yale</b><b>, Iona</b><b>, UC Irvine, </b><b>Eastern Washington</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Furman, Vermont</b><b>, Colgate</b><b>, Youngstown State</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>UNC Asheville, </b><b>Northwestern State, <i>(Grambling, Norfolk State), (Morehead State, Fairleigh Dickinson)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last four byes: Oklahoma State, Kentucky, Boise State, Wisconsin</p><p>Last four in: <i>(Memphis, Mississippi State), (USC, Pittsburgh)</i></p><p>First four out: North Carolina, Arizona State, North Texas, Oregon</p><p>Next four out: Michigan, Penn State, Texas Tech, New Mexico</p><p><br /></p><p>Check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! None of that is impacted by this, don't worry, this is more of an exercise for where I place teams.</p><p>Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a>, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big Ten: 9</p><p>Big 12: 8</p><p>SEC: 8</p><p>ACC: 5</p><p>Big East: 5</p><p>MWC: 3</p><p>Pac-12: 3</p><p>AAC: 2</p><p>WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-47078896930772268292023-02-13T16:31:00.002-08:002023-02-13T16:31:53.758-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/13/23<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Updated for games on 2/12/23.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston</b></p><p>2 seeds: Texas, <b>UCLA</b>, Baylor, Arizona</p><p>3 seeds: <b>Virginia</b>, Tennessee, Kansas State, Iowa State</p><p>4 seeds: <b>Xavier</b>, UConn, Marquette, <b>Gonzaga</b></p><p>5 seeds: <b>San Diego State</b>, Indiana, Miami (FL), TCU</p><p>6 seeds: St. Mary's, Missouri, Illinois, Creighton</p><p>7 seeds: Michigan State, Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland</p><p>8 seeds: Duke, <b>FAU</b>, Providence, West Virginia</p><p>9 seeds: Northwestern, Nevada, Auburn, Oklahoma State</p><p>10 seeds: NC State, Arkansas, Boise State, Pittsburgh</p><p>11 seeds: Memphis, Wisconsin, <i>New Mexico, North Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State</i></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Charleston, Oral Roberts, Southern Miss, Kent State</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>Liberty, Utah Valley, Drake, VCU</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>UC Santa Barbara, Iona, Yale, Furman</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Eastern Washington, Colgate, Vermont, Youngstown State</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Northwestern State, UNC Asheville, <i>(Grambling, Norfolk State), (SIU-Edwardsville, Wagner)</i></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Last four byes: Boise State, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Wisconsin</p><p>Last four in: <i>New Mexico, North Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State*</i></p><p>First four out: USC, Texas A&M, Oregon, Clemson</p><p>Next four out: Michigan, Seton Hall, Arizona State, Penn State </p><p>Also considered: Utah State, Wake Forest</p><p>*First four matchups are New Mexico vs. Kentucky and North Carolina vs. Mississippi State.</p><p><br /></p><p>Check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! None of that is impacted by this, don't worry, this is more of an exercise for where I place teams.</p><p>Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a>, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big Ten: 9</p><p>Big 12: 8</p><p>SEC: 7</p><p>ACC: 6</p><p>Big East: 5</p><p>MWC: 4</p><p>AAC: 2</p><p>Pac-12: 2</p><p>WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-19796966313915614002023-02-09T12:08:00.055-08:002023-02-09T12:26:17.229-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/08/23<p>I made this the other day, figured I might as well actually publish it. Used a much different method for bracketing, one that hopefully gets me closer to the actual bracket.</p><p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. The timing on this was iffy – I'm pretty sure none of the games from 2/8 counted, so this would be before them.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Purdue</b>, Kansas<b>, Alabama, Houston</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Arizona, Texas</b>, Baylor, UCLA</p><p>3 seeds: Kansas State, <b>Xavier</b>, Tennessee, Iowa State</p><p>4 seeds: <b>Virginia</b>, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Gonzaga</p><p>5 seeds: Marquette, TCU, Indiana, <b>St. Mary's</b></p><p>6 seeds: Duke, Iowa, <b>San Diego State</b>, Rutgers</p><p>7 seeds: Missouri, Auburn, Illinois, Providence</p><p>8 seeds: West Virginia, Michigan State, Creighton, <b>FAU</b></p><p>9 seeds: Maryland, NC State, Pittsburgh, Arkansas</p><p>10 seeds: Nevada, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, USC</p><p>11 seeds: Northwestern, Wisconsin, <i>(North Carolina, Kentucky), (Boise State, Memphis)</i></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Charleston, Oral Roberts, Utah Valley, Drake</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>VCU, Southern Miss, Liberty, Kent State</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>UC Santa Barbara, Yale, Furman, Iona</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Eastern Washington, Northwestern State, Colgate, Vermont</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>UNC Asheville, Alcorn State, <i>(MD-Eastern Shore, Youngstown State), (SIU-Edwardsville, Fairleigh Dickinson)</i></b></p><p><b><i><br /></i></b></p><p>Last four byes: New Mexico, USC, Northwestern, Wisconsin</p><p>Last four in: <i>(North Carolina, Kentucky), (Boise State, Memphis)</i></p><p>First four out: Clemson, Penn State, Oregon, Mississippi State</p><p>Next four out: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Wake Forest</p><p><br /></p><p>Check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! None of that is impacted by this, don't worry, this is more of an exercise for where I place teams.</p><p>Also, check out <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a>, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>COMING EVENTUALLY PROBABLY</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-88686176951665067132022-03-12T15:51:00.015-08:002022-03-13T15:01:56.882-07:00Skarmory's Bracketology – Live Updates pre-Selection Sunday<p>Figured I might as well do another one of these, eh. Getting down to it, I want to make a bracket heading into Selection Sunday – the latest update was at 6:01 PM on March 13.</p><p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. </p><p>1 seeds: <b>Kansas</b>, Baylor, <b>Gonzaga, Arizona</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Tennessee, Villanova</b>, Kentucky, Texas Tech</p><p>3 seeds: Auburn, Purdue, Wisconsin, Providence</p><p>4 seeds: <b>Duke</b>, Illinois, Arkansas, UCLA</p><p>5 seeds: Connecticut, Texas, Alabama, St. Mary's</p><p>6 seeds: Colorado State, Michigan State, LSU, <b>Houston</b></p><p>7 seeds: TCU, San Diego State, <b>Iowa</b>, Ohio State</p><p>8 seeds: Creighton, Marquette, Iowa State, <b>Murray State</b></p><p>9 seeds: <b>Boise State</b>, Seton Hall, USC, Miami (FL)</p><p>10 seeds: Rutgers, Texas A&M, North Carolina, Memphis</p><p>11 seeds: San Francisco, <i>(Wyoming, Davidson), (Oklahoma, Michigan)</i>, <b>Virginia Tech</b></p><p>12 seeds:<b> Loyola-Chicago</b>, <b>UAB, New Mexico State</b><b>, </b><b>South Dakota State</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>Richmond, Chattanooga, Vermont, Akron</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Montana State, Delaware, Yale, Longwood</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>CSU Fullerton, Georgia State, St. Peter's, Colgate</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Jacksonville State, Bryant, <i>(Norfolk State, Wright State), (Texas Southern, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)</i></b></p><p><b><i><br /></i></b></p><p>Last four byes: Texas A&M, North Carolina, Memphis, San Francisco</p><p>Last four in: <i>(Wyoming, Davidson), (Oklahoma, Michigan)</i></p><p>First four out: Indiana, Xavier, BYU, St. Bonaventure</p><p>Next four out: Florida, Notre Dame, SMU, Dayton</p><p><br /></p><p>Credit to <a href="https://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and FOX...lol. Also, check out my <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/02/skarmorys-bubble-watch-semi-live-updates.html">bubble watch</a> – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together.</p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>COMING SOON</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-30959045493143537932022-02-18T08:37:00.000-08:002022-02-18T08:37:33.000-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/18/22<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. </p><p>1 seeds: <b>Auburn, Kansas, Gonzaga, Providence</b></p><p>2 seeds: Texas Tech, Baylor, <b>Wisconsin</b>, Purdue</p><p>3 seeds: <b>Arizona</b>, Villanova, Kentucky, Tennessee</p><p>4 seeds: <b>Duke</b>, Marquette, Texas, Illinois</p><p>5 seeds: UCLA, Ohio State, Alabama, <b>Houston</b></p><p>6 seeds: Michigan State, UConn, Iowa State, LSU</p><p>7 seeds: Xavier, Arkansas, <b>Colorado State</b>, Seton Hall</p><p>8 seeds: St. Mary's, TCU, Miami (FL), Wyoming</p><p>9 seeds: USC, San Francisco, Creighton, Boise State</p><p>10 seeds: Indiana, Notre Dame, San Diego State, <b>Davidson</b></p><p>11 seeds: <b>Murray State</b>, Kansas State, Rutgers, (<i>Oklahoma, Michigan)</i></p><p>12 seeds: <i>(St. Bonaventure, West Virginia)</i>, <b>Loyola-Chicago, North Texas, New Mexico State</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>Ohio, Iona, South Dakota State, Chattanooga</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Wagner, Hofstra, UC Irvine, Oakland</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Vermont, Yale, Navy, Liberty</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Weber State, Winthrop, <i>(Texas State, Southern), (Norfolk State, Nicholls)</i></b></p><p><b><i><br /></i></b></p><p>Last four byes: Notre Dame, San Diego State, Kansas State, Rutgers</p><p>Last four in: <i>(Oklahoma, Michigan), (St. Bonaventure, West Virginia)</i></p><p>First four out: Iowa, Wake Forest, Memphis, BYU</p><p>Next four out: Oregon, VCU, Florida, Belmont</p><p><br /></p><p>Credit to <a href="https://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and FOX...lol. </p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 9 (<b>Kansas</b>, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, TCU, Kansas State, <i>Oklahoma, West Virginia</i>)</p><p>Big Ten: 8 (<b>Wisconsin</b>, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Rutgers, <i>Michigan</i>)</p><p>Big East: 7 (<b>Providence</b>, Villanova, Marquette, UConn, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton)</p><p>SEC: 6 (<b>Auburn</b>, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas)</p><p>MWC: 4 (<b>Colorado State</b>, Wyoming, Boise State, San Diego State)</p><p>ACC: 3 (<b>Duke</b>, Miami (FL), Notre Dame)</p><p>Pac-12: 3 (<b>Arizona</b>, UCLA, USC)</p><p>WCC: 3 (<b>Gonzaga</b>, St. Mary's, San Francisco)</p><p>A10: 2 (<b>Davidson</b>, <i>St. Bonaventure</i>)</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-66763478495878502532022-02-15T14:32:00.139-08:002022-03-13T15:09:17.602-07:00Skarmory's Bubble Watch – Semi-Live updates<p style="text-align: left;">Welcome back to my bubble watch! <b>I will be updating each section somewhat live</b>, as games progress through the next week – building a full watch every week is somewhat hard, so I've opted for this instead, and sections may not be up to date (I've included a date on each of them). Data is from <a href="https://warrennolan.com">warrennolan.com</a>, and non-D1 wins are not counted in records.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Prefaces for now: I am currently in Mexico; also have IVs stuck in my arm sometimes. However, the show must go on; see ya either way! Will be here through the end of the season, but I should be fine on updating this. I also have a <a href="https://skarmorybballpostseason.blogspot.com/2022/03/skarmorys-bracketology-live-updates-pre.html">bracketology up here</a>, but it does not affect the actual placements of teams on this bubble watch – it's more to show where I mark teams from my own view.</p><div style="text-align: left;">See y'all next year! Had fun doing this, want to do it again next year, excited to see how my predictions turn out.</div><h2>American</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Houston, Memphis</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: SMU</div><div><br /></div><div>Memphis' win over SMU in the semifinals was enough to lock them up. That leaves one question mark: SMU. The Mustangs will be right on the bubble heading into the selection show – we'll see where they end up, but they have nothing they can do any more. Houston gets a chance for revenge against Memphis in the conference championship game – the Tigers swept the Cougars in the regular season.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Houston (29-5 (15-3 AAC), NET 3, SOS 102, 1-4 Q1, 10-1 Q2) – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Memphis (21-10 (13-5 AAC), NET 31, SOS 77, 5-4 Q1, 3-4 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><b>SMU (23-8 (13-4 AAC), NET 44, SOS 105, 2-2 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SMU is right on the bubble, and they have nothing more they can do after losing in the semifinals to Memphis. The Houston win and regular season sweep of Memphis are the main points of their resume; the main question will be – is that enough? They do have three more Q2 wins – vs. Dayton, @ Tulane, and vs. Vanderbilt – but losses to Missouri and Loyola Marymount hang a dark cloud over the Mustangs' tournament resume.</div></div><div><br /></div><h2>Atlantic 10</h2><div><br /></div><div>Autobid: Richmond</div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Davidson</div><div>Work left to do: VCU, Dayton</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, I don't think either Dayton or VCU have any good at-large chances, so we're down to just Davidson for an at-large. I guess the committee could put in either Dayton or VCU, but I don't think it's likely at all. Richmond stole a bid, which heavily hurts Dayton and VCU's chances, and Davidson seems pretty safe as an at-large.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Autobid</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Richmond (23-12 (10-8 A10), NET 82, SOS 110, 1-2 Q1, 6-9 Q2, 1 Q4 loss) – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Davidson (26-6 (15-3 A10), NET 38, SOS 135, 2-2 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Davidson should be okay, despite Richmond stealing the A10 bid, but I'm not 100% sure, especially since most brackets haven't been updated yet. The marquee win on their resume is against Alabama on a neutral court early, and they do have an additional Q1 win at VCU, but a loss at Rhode Island is Q3 and they do have 3 Q2 losses as well. Like I said, they should be fine, but I just don't feel comfortable immediately locking them.</div></div><div><br /></div></div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><div><div><div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />VCU (21-9 (14-4 A10), NET 56, SOS 95, 3-3 Q1, 3-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Well, VCU is in bad position after a loss to Richmond in the conference tournament. They sit at 21-9, but with a 3-3 Q1 record and 3-5 Q2 record, they probably don't have the wins required to make up for their 6 Q2/Q3 losses. Wins at Davidson, Dayton and Vanderbilt are Q1, but after that, it falls off, and even Vanderbilt is somewhat iffy. A loss at home to Wagner is Q3, and losses vs. Chattanooga and against Richmond in the conference tournament are not ideal either. They appear to be on the wrong side of the bubble now, but I haven't dropped them from the watch.</div></div><div><br /></div><b>Dayton (23-10 (14-4 A10), NET 58, SOS 117, 3-2 Q1, 5-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 3 Q4 losses) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div>I don't think Dayton has any at-large chance, but with how the bubble has been this year, I feel like they should remain in the off chance the committee weighs their early season Q4 losses less strongly. Losses at home to UMass-Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay are awful, but were in November, and since then, they've been a tournament team – one real rough loss at La Salle, but wins over Kansas and Miami on neutral courts, a 30 point win at VCU, and home wins against Davidson and Virginia Tech are all very good. A loss against Richmond in the conference tournament semifinals, however, hurts their at-large chances; it's probably enough to where they have no more at-large chance, but I've kept them on here as well.</div><div><br /></div></div></div></div></div><h2>ACC</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina</div><div>Should be in: Miami (FL)</div><div>Work left to do: Wake Forest, Notre Dame</div><div><br /></div><div>Congratulations to Virginia Tech on winning the ACC tournament! They went from a team with an outside shot at an at-large that needed a run to winning the whole tournament, and they still will not get an at-large – they earned the autobid! Their run has made them the third ACC team securely in the tournament – North Carolina has also moved up to lock status, while Miami should be fine as well, and Wake Forest and Notre Dame will be sweating it out on Sunday.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Duke (28-6 (16-4 ACC), NET 13, SOS 67, 6-2 Q1, 6-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Virginia Tech (23-12 (11-9 ACC), NET 27, SOS 70, 3-5 Q1, 6-5 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />North Carolina (24-9 (15-5 ACC), NET 32, SOS 58, 3-8 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div></div></div></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><div><b>Miami (FL) (23-10 (14-6 ACC), NET 62, SOS 76, 4-3 Q1, 5-4 Q2, 3 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Miami is in a pretty good position now, but they have nothing more they can do. Avoiding a loss to Boston College is huge, and probably put them in a safe enough position where they don't have to worry, but after the Duke loss, I don't think they're a lock to make it. Their quadrant records have stabilized out somewhat, but 4-3 Q1 is still good, and a 5-4 record in Q2 is above .500. However, they do have 3 Q3 losses, which definitely keep some doubt in there. Wins at Duke, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are all good, and they also have a Q1 win against North Texas on a neutral court, but losses at home to Virginia, UCF and Florida State are not ideal.</div></div><div><br /></div></div></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><div><b>Wake Forest (23-9 (13-7 ACC), NET 48, SOS 106, 1-4 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Oh no, Wake Forest lost to Boston College in the ACC tourney. That will significantly dampen their hopes – at 1-4 Q1 and 4-3 Q2, they did not want to pick up a 2nd Q3 loss, but they just did. Wins at Virginia Tech, vs. North Carolina and vs. Notre Dame give them an edge over fellow ACC bubble teams in 1-on-1 comparisons, but they may not be enough to lift an entire resume. I was never too high on Wake, and their resume may not support a tournament bid at this point – their NET rating is at 48, which is okay, but not super high. They'll definitely be sweating Selection Sunday out.</div><div><br /></div></div></div><div><b>Notre Dame (21-10 (15-5 ACC), NET 53, SOS </b><b>68</b><b>, 2-8 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Time for Notre Dame to see if what they did over the season is enough. They lost their first conference tournament game to Virginia Tech – it's not a bad loss, Q1, but a missed opportunity for a team with 4 Q1/Q2 wins. Those wins are a great one vs. Kentucky, solid ones vs. North Carolina and at Miami, and one at Clemson. Just those 4 may not be enough, with how the rest of the bubble is trending – they have some higher-end Q3 wins, but still, it's not ideal. The road loss to Boston College is also not ideal, and they have 10 total losses, which may be too much when they only have 4 Q1/Q2 wins. We'll see – they seem to be on the right side of the bubble right now, but I'm not sure it'll stay that way.</div><div><div><div><br /></div></div></div><h2>Big 12</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Iowa State</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: Oklahoma</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, we're down to one question mark: Oklahoma. Kansas took the Big 12 tournament, while Texas Tech knocked off Oklahoma in the semifinals, so we're really only left with the Sooners as a bubble team. I'd say they're on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but it's close.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Locks</h3><div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Baylor (26-6 (14-4 Big 12), NET 4, SOS 13, 10-5 Q1, 8-1 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><b>Kansas (28-6 (14-4 Big 12), NET 6, SOS 6, 12-5 Q1, 8-1 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Texas Tech (25-9 (12-6 Big 12), NET 9, SOS 12, 8-9 Q1, 7-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><b>Texas (21-11 (10-8 Big 12), NET 17, SOS 17, 5-10 Q1, 5-1 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />TCU (20-12 (8-10 Big 12), NET 45, SOS 10, 8-8 Q1, 2-4 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><b>Iowa State (20-12 (7-11 Big 12), NET 49, SOS 11, 9-8 Q1, 1-4 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><br /></div></div></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Oklahoma (18-15 (7-11 Big 12), NET 40, SOS 3, 4-12 Q1, 6-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Well, Oklahoma has to just sit and wait. A loss to Texas Tech in the semifinals ends the Sooners' chances to build up their resume, so they're left with what they have. The 18-15 record is not ideal, but they do have the huge win over Baylor in the conference tournament, in addition to wins over Texas Tech at home and Arkansas on a neutral court which are big. They also have a bunch of solid wins in Q2 – however, that may not be enough with 15 losses, including one at home to Butler, which is Q3.</div><div><br /></div><h2>Big East</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Villanova, Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Creighton</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: Xavier</div><div><br /></div><div>Villanova won the conference tournament in the Big East, over Creighton, who was the team coming in that was probably in but needed a win to seal their spot; they got two. That leaves one major question mark in the Big East: Xavier. They will have to wait and see what their fate is, as they have been eliminated from the Big East tournament, after a loss to Butler.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Villanova (26-7 (16-4 Big East), NET 7, SOS 16, 7-6 Q1, 10-1 Q2) – Autobid – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Connecticut (23-9 (13-6 Big East), NET 16, SOS 40, 5-6 Q1, 8-3 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Providence (25-5 (14-3 Big East), NET 33, SOS 54, 5-3 Q1, 9-2 Q2) – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><b>Seton Hall (20-10 (11-8 Big East), NET 37, SOS 28, 6-7 Q1, 3-3 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Marquette (19-12 (11-8 Big East), NET 43, SOS 23, 5-7 Q1, 5-5 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Creighton (22-11 (12-7 Big East), NET 55, SOS 33, 7-6 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><br /></div><div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Xavier (18-13 (8-11 Big East), NET 41, SOS 39, 5-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Well, Xavier has to just sweat it out now. A loss to Butler in the conference tournament is Q3, and if they weren't in trouble before, they are now. Their last win against a team not named Georgetown was in mid February at home against UConn – that is also probably their best win on the year, though they do have 4 other Q1 wins, including one vs. Ohio State (the others are neutral vs. VT, @ OKST and @ Creighton). Is a 9-11 top 2 quadrants record with 2 Q3 losses good enough? I can definitely say the DePaul home loss and recent Butler loss are not good, and put them in a position where they'll be sweating on Sunday.</div></div><div><br /></div></div><h2>Big Ten</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State</div><div>Should be in: Indiana</div><div>Work left to do: Michigan, Rutgers</div><div><br /></div><div>The storm has cleared in the Big Ten, and we have 6 locks, 1 should be in team and 2 teams with work left to do...that can't do any more work. The 6 locks are obviously in and have been for a while, while Indiana picked up enough in the conference tournament to make their chances of an at-large good. Michigan and Rutgers are the interesting bubble cases – Michigan appears to be on the right side of it, while Rutgers is right on it. We could see anywhere from a 7 to 9 bid Big Ten; I think we'll see 8 or 9 make it, personally.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Purdue (27-7 (14-6 B1G), NET 11, SOS 37, 8-6 Q1, 6-1 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Iowa (26-9 (12-8 B1G), NET 14, SOS 53, 4-6 Q1, 8-3 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 12</i></b></div><div><br /></div><b>Illinois (22-9 (15-5 B1G), NET 15, SOS 21, 6-6 Q1, 6-3 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><b>Wisconsin (24-7 (15-5 B1G), NET 24, SOS 18, 9-3 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><b>Ohio State (19-11 (12-8 B1G), NET 26, SOS 25, 5-5 Q1, 5-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Michigan State (22-12 (11-9 B1G), NET 36, SOS 14, 5-9 Q1, 8-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><h3 style="text-align: left;"><b>Should be in</b></h3><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Indiana (20-13 (9-11 B1G), NET 39, SOS 38, 4-8 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Indiana fell to Iowa in the semifinals, but as the dust has settled, they've put themselves on the right side of the bubble. They're certainly not a lock to make it, but they should be in the field by now, after picking up some huge wins over Illinois and Michigan in the conference tournament – those account for half of their Q1 wins now. Those two wins add to the previous two they had at home, against Purdue and Ohio State, and give them some solid wins at the top of their resume – solid enough to the point where I think they're fine. They have some meh losses, such as at Syracuse, Penn State and Northwestern, but the only Q3 loss is at home against Rutgers and is more realistically a Q2 loss, but technically it is Q3. We'll see if they've done enough when the selection show comes around.</div><div><br /></div></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Michigan (17-14 (11-9 B1G), NET 34, SOS 7, 5-10 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Michigan dropped the opening conference tournament game to Indiana, which leaves them at 17-14 heading into Selection Sunday. That record will hurt them quite a bit – the only really meh losses are at UCF and vs. Minnesota, of which the latter is Q3, but the sheer number of them is a problem. Wins at Iowa, vs. Purdue, and at Ohio State are all very good, and they have decent depth wins, along with a top 35 NET rating and support from metrics. Is it enough for an at-large? Maybe; I'd personally say they're currently on the right side of the bubble.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Rutgers (18-13 (12-8 B1G), NET 77, SOS 34, 6-6 Q1, 3-4 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>It was quite a year for the Scarlet Knights. They started out the year 3-3, with losses at home to Lafayette, at DePaul and at UMass, and an OT win over Lehigh at home in their first game. Since then, they've definitely improved quite a bit – they picked up a win vs. Purdue in Purdue's first ever game as #1, and picked up some solid wins, but ended up dropping conference games at Penn State, at Minnesota, vs. Maryland and at Northwestern. At that point, it looked like they were completely out of it, but they pulled off 4 straight wins against ranked teams (at the time) – vs. Michigan State, vs. Ohio State, at Wisconsin and vs. Illinois. They lost 3 in a row after that, but they were in good enough position where after winning at Indiana and vs. Penn State to close the year, they were on the bubble, likely the right side of it. They lost to Iowa, however, in their first Big 12 tournament game – that leaves them with probably the most intriguing bubble case in the nation as of now. We'll see where they end up, come Selection Sunday.</div><div><br /></div><h2><b>Mountain West</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: Wyoming</div><div><br /></div><div>We are looking at a likely 4 bid MWC; CSU, Boise and SDSU are locks, with SDSU being the latest addition there, and Wyoming should be fine, though they're in work left to do now. Boise ended up taking the conference tournament, picking up their 3rd win against San Diego State to win the championship (the three wins were by a combined 7 points, and the largest margin was a 42-37 win, lol), while CSU and Wyoming went out in the semifinals.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />San Diego State (23-8 (13-4 MWC), NET 25, SOS 60, 5-8 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><div><div><b>Colorado State (24-5 (14-4 MWC), NET 28, SOS 81, 5-3 Q1, 8-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><div></div></div></div><div><div><div><br /></div><b>Boise State (26-7 (15-3 MWC), NET 29, SOS 86, 6-3 Q1, 7</b><b>-3</b><b> </b><b>Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div></div><div><b>Wyoming (24-8 (13-5 MWC), NET 50, SOS 90, 4-5 Q1, 7-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I was thinking Wyoming was pretty safe, but they're the 2nd to last team in now on bracketmatrix, and I'm much less sure, so they've been moved down to work left to do. Wins at home against Colorado State and Boise State are huge, but after that, sweeps of Utah State and Fresno State produce two low-end Q1 and two low-end Q2 wins, while the remaining 5 Q2 wins aren't particularly huge either. They also have 2 Q3 losses – neutral court against Stanford and at New Mexico – which do not help their case either, but with the weaker bubble this year, I think they should be okay.</div></div><div><div><div><br /></div></div></div></div><h2><b>Pac-12</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: Arizona, UCLA, USC</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: N/A</div><div><br /></div><div>Colorado fell to Arizona, which spells the end of the Buffaloes' at-large hopes. That just leaves 3 teams that will make it – Arizona took the autobid, while the LA schools will get at-larges.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Arizona (31-3 (18-2 Pac-12), NET 2, SOS 62, 6-3 Q1, 9-0 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />UCLA (25-7 (15-5 Pac-12), NET 10, SOS 43, 5-4 Q1, 8-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div></div><div><b>USC (26-7 (14-6 Pac-12), NET 35, SOS 80, 4-4 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><h2>SEC</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama</div><div>Should be in: Texas A&M</div><div>Work left to do: N/A</div><div><br /></div><div>Texas A&M has put themselves in good position with an SEC tournament run to the final – good enough where I've put them in should be in, as I feel like they're pretty safe. We should see a 7 bid SEC as such – Tennessee nabbed the autobid, so congrats to them on winning the SEC tourney!</div><div><br /></div><h3>Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Kentucky (26-7 (14-4 SEC), NET 5, SOS 19, 9-7 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Tennessee (26-7 (14-4 SEC), NET 8, SOS 4, 11-7 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b><b> – Autobid – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Auburn (27-5 (15-3 SEC), NET 12, SOS 42, 8-5 Q1, 7-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b>LSU (22-11 (9-9 SEC), NET 18, SOS 27, 6-9 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Arkansas (25-8 (13-5 SEC), NET 20, SOS 46, 7-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><b>Alabama (19-13 (9-9 SEC), NET 30, SOS 1, 8-8 Q1, 5-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Texas A&M (22-12 (9-9 SEC), NET 42, SOS 47, 4-10 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Texas A&M made a deep run in the SEC tournament, and now that it has ended, I can say the Aggies are in good position for an at-large. Wins over Auburn and Arkansas in the tournament are good Q1 wins, while the Florida win is a decent depth win, and a loss to Tennessee isn't bad at all. At this point, in addition to the Auburn/Arkansas conference tournament wins, they have wins at Alabama and vs. Arkansas in the regular season, and a perfect 5-0 Q2 record. However, home losses to South Carolina and Missouri are Q3, and I don't feel like they're a lock to make it at this point.</div></div><div><br /></div><h2><b>West Coast</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Francisco</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: BYU</div><div><br /></div><div>San Francisco's win over BYU in the conference tournament was enough to lock them up; I trust the committee enough to invite this San Francisco team, which leaves the WCC with 1 big question mark: BYU. They'll be right on the cut line by Selection Sunday – the question is whether they're on the right side of it or not. There's nothing they can do at this point, other than wait.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Gonzaga (26-3 (13-1 WCC), NET 1, SOS 59, 10-3 Q1, 2-0 Q2) – Autobid</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>St. Mary's (24-7 (12-3 WCC), NET 19, SOS 56, 4-7 Q1, 6-0 Q2)</b><b> – <i>Last updated:</i></b><b><i> Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />San Francisco (23-9 (10-6 WCC), NET 22, SOS 65, 4-6 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div></div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>BYU (20-10 (9-6 WCC), NET 54, SOS 66</b><b>, 4-6 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Time for BYU to wait and see how things go. Are wins vs. St. Mary's, at San Francisco, vs. San Diego State, and at Missouri State in Q1, along with wins against Oregon on a neutral court, Utah State at home and Utah on the road in Q2 actually good enough? I'd say the Q2 wins are lower-end Q2, while the Q1 wins are split. The main problem is their Q4 road loss to Pacific, but even though it's Q2, a loss at Utah Valley is not ideal either. I would not want to be part of BYU's team at this point – must be an incredibly tense atmosphere there.</div></div><div><br /></div><h2>Others</h2></div><div><br /></div><div>Autobids: Murray State, Loyola-Chicago, South Dakota State</div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: North Texas</div><div><br /></div><div>Quick preface: the Autobids section is only for potential bubble teams that got autobids. With that out of the way, Murray State, Loyola-Chicago, and South Dakota State picked up their conference tournaments; I was somewhat disappointed to see Murray beat Morehead, as I would've liked to see Morehead in the tourney, but I wasn't sure at all that Loyola would've gotten an at-large with another loss to Drake. That only leaves one real options for an at-large (UAB isn't in that category for me): North Texas.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Autobids</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Murray State (27-2 (18-0 OVC), NET 21, SOS 219, 2-1 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Loyola-Chicago (24-7 (13-5 MVC), NET 23, SOS 112, 3-2 Q1, 5-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) </b><b>– <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><b>South Dakota State (28-4 (18-0 Summit), NET 65, SOS 255, 0-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><b><i><br /></i></b></div><div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>North Texas (22-6 (16-2 C-USA), NET 47, SOS 144, 1-1 Q1, 5-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b><b> – <i>Last updated: Mar. 13</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Yikes, a loss to Louisiana Tech in the conference is Q2, but it definitely doesn't help. The Mean Green are at 1-1 Q1, 5-3 Q2 with 2 Q3 losses heading into Sunday, and while they do have a top 50 NET rating, that's worse than a decent amount of fellow bubble teams. I doubt it's enough for an at-large at this point – a win at UAB is solid, but it's their only Q1 win, and they are 1-2 in Q2-A (higher-end Q2). Time to wait and see.</div></div><div><br /></div></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><b>Statistics:</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>This portion will cover teams moving in/out across the past week-ish. (It's pretty loose, so I just leave here what I think makes sense to include at this point.)</div><div><br /></div><div>+ Texas A&M, Dayton</div><div><br /></div><div>– Colorado, Florida</div><div><br /></div><div>Teams on my radar: SBU, Fla</div><div><br /></div><div>Total locks/autobids: 42 (13 guaranteed autobids)</div><div><br /></div><div>Total should be in: 4</div><div><br /></div><div>Total work left to do: 12</div><div><br /></div><div>Spots vs. teams included (accounting for autobids): 36, 33 taken by locks/should be in, 3 spots for 12 work left to do</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, see you whenever the next one pops up!</div>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-24153182164254633132022-02-04T18:58:00.000-08:002022-02-04T18:58:54.964-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology: 02/04/22<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. This was made during Feb. 4; all relevant teams were checked before their games ended (Creighton/SHU, Iona/Canisius notably), with the exception of Princeton, where I just ignored their game today.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Auburn, Baylor</b>, Kansas, <b>Providence</b></p><p>2 seeds: <b>Wisconsin, </b><b>Gonzaga</b>, Texas Tech, Purdue</p><p>3 seeds: <b>Arizona</b>, Kentucky, UCLA, <b>Duke</b></p><p>4 seeds: Michigan State, Marquette, <b>Houston</b>, Iowa State</p><p>5 seeds: Xavier, Ohio State, Villanova, Alabama</p><p>6 seeds: Tennessee, Illinois, LSU, UConn</p><p>7 seeds: Texas, TCU, Indiana, St. Mary's</p><p>8 seeds: San Francisco, <b>Davidson, Wyoming</b>, Miami (FL)</p><p>9 seeds: Colorado State, BYU, <b>Murray State</b>, USC</p><p>10 seeds: Creighton, Boise State, <b>Iona</b>, San Diego State</p><p>11 seeds: Seton Hall, Oklahoma, West Virginia, North Carolina</p><p>12 seeds: <i>(Stanford, Iowa), (Arkansas, Notre Dame)</i>, <b>Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>North Texas, </b><b>Ohio, South Dakota State, Chattanooga</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Oakland, Wagner, Vermont, Hofstra</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Princeton, UC Irvine, </b><b>Weber State, Navy</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Liberty, Appalachian State, <i>(Winthrop, Texas Southern), (Norfolk State, New Orleans)</i></b></p><p><b><i><br /></i></b></p><p>Last four byes: Seton Hall, Oklahoma, West Virginia, North Carolina</p><p>Last four in: <i>(Stanford, Iowa), (Arkansas, Notre Dame)</i></p><p>First four out: Mississippi State, Belmont, VCU, Oregon</p><p>Next four out: Florida State, UAB, Saint Louis, Cincinnati</p><p><br /></p><p>Credit to <a href="https://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and FOX...lol. </p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 8 (<b>Baylor</b>, Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia)</p><p>Big East: 7 (<b>Providence</b>, Marquette, Xavier, Villanova, UConn, Creighton, Seton Hall)</p><p>Big Ten: 7 (<b>Wisconsin</b>, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa)</p><p>SEC: 6 (<b>Auburn</b>, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas)</p><p>ACC: 4 (<b>Duke</b>, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Notre Dame)</p><p>MWC: 4 (<b>Wyoming</b>, Colorado State, Boise State, San Diego State)</p><p>Pac-12: 4 (<b>Arizona</b>, UCLA, USC, Stanford)</p><p>WCC: 4 (<b>Gonzaga</b>, St. Mary's, San Francisco, BYU)</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-72647375094130582882022-02-02T14:44:00.008-08:002022-02-06T11:41:53.666-08:00Skarmory's Bubble Watch – 02/02/2022<p>Welcome back to my bubble watch! Everything is post-Feb 1 games, data is from <a href="https://warrennolan.com">warrennolan.com</a>, and non-D1 wins are not counted in records. I may make some slight adjustments following finishing off my own bracketology.</p><h2>American</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Houston</div><div>Work left to do: SMU</div><div><br /></div><div>Cincinnati and UCF are off the bubble watch for this edition, leaving two AAC teams. Cincinnati has much better hopes, with games at home against Memphis and Houston; win one and they're maybe back on, lose both and they're certainly gone; I was very close to including them here. UCF is a lot clearer as being out, with losses at Wichita and vs. Houston this week. Memphis is also still on the wrong side. but they do have some more chances.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Houston (18-2 (7-0 AAC), NET 2, SOS 139, 0-2 Q1, 4-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Houston picked up a solid win at UCF, which gives them another Q2 win – however, their only Q1 win (which I believe was against OKST on a neutral court?) has dropped to Q2. Still, they don't have a bad loss, and that UCF win helps out. Next week features a home game against Tulane and a big road trip to Cincinnati.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>SMU (16-4 (7-1 AAC), NET 55, SOS 203, 1-2 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>SMU handled USF on the road and Temple at home, which is important as they can't really afford any bad losses – the two Jacksonville Classic losses to Mizzou and Loyola Marymount are bad enough already, with the latter being Q4 (the former is Q3). Their road win against Memphis is now Q1, which helps slightly. They get chances for some big wins up next – a road trip to Wichita next Saturday is a Q2 opportunity, and then they have a huge game, at home against Houston, on the next Wednesday.</div><div><br /></div><h2>Atlantic 10</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Davidson</div><div>Work left to do: VCU, Saint Louis</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, that's it for St. Bonaventure for now. The 102 NET is just too bad without enough good wins – neutral court wins against Marquette and Boise won't cut it for them as of now. They're certainly not out of the hunt, but they're off the watch for now.</div><div><br /></div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Davidson (17-3 (8-1 A10), NET 45, SOS 148, 2-1 Q1, 2-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Davidson picked up a neat resume-padding win at St. Bonaventure, which may be Q2, but it certainly helps. The recent home loss to VCU will not hurt them significantly, as they're still solidly in the field. The road win at VCU actually looks better after the loss, and the neutral court win over Alabama is still solid, and is the key piece on their resume. On February 12th, they get their next Q2 game; a trip to Rhode Island.</div><div><br /></div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>VCU (13-6 (6-2 A10), NET 56, SOS 59, 1-2 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I gave VCU the benefit of the doubt last week, and they earned their spot. They picked up the best win possible in the conference at Davidson, which is their only Q1 win as of this moment, as Dayton on the road is ping-ponging between Q1 and Q2 (3 days ago it was Q2, 2 days ago it was Q1, yesterday and today it's Q2 again). They also have 4 Q2 wins, after picking up a win at cross-town rival Richmond. The home loss to Wagner isn't great, but it's not awful by any means, and they're much closer to being in now. Home games against Dayton and Duquesne are next up.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Saint Louis (13-6 (5-2 A10), NET 64, SOS 126, 1-2 Q1, 1-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Saint Louis's resume is very similar to last week; a road win against Boise is Q1 and is against a bubble team, and they also have a home win against a bubble Iona team that's Q2. The road loss to UMass is rough, but I still think they're in the conversation, though I'm less convinced now. They travel to George Mason next, which is a Q2 game. They get a trip to Davidson on February 19, which will be an important game for their chances.</div></div><div><br /></div><h2>ACC</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Duke</div><div>Work left to do: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State</div><div><br /></div><div>The ACC had a lot more shuffling this week than anyone really moving in/out of the picture. I don't really see anyone joining the picture soon, so I'd say what we have right now is going to be there for at least a little while.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Duke (18-3 (8-2 ACC), NET 12, SOS 73, 4-1 Q1, 3-2 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Duke picked up a solid win at Notre Dame, which was needed after barely beating Clemson at home and Louisville on the road. I'm still not particularly impressed by them, but the great Gonzaga and Kentucky wins help a ton, and they also have a road win at Wake which is also Q1. The Miami and FSU losses have me worried. Next game is the road trip to UNC-Chapel Hill. There are too many Q3 games left for me to consider locking Duke.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>North Carolina (16-6 (8-3 ACC), NET 35, SOS 62, 0-6 Q1, 4-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>North Carolina is now up to 4 Q2 wins, after picking up a home win against Virginia Tech, the Furman win jumping into Q2, and an OT escape at Louisville. I'm still not fully convinced, however; they haven't picked up a Q1 win yet. They get a chance in the rivalry game against Duke on Saturday.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Wake Forest (17-5 (7-4 ACC), NET 49, SOS 113, 1-3 Q1, 2-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Wake was looking like they were very much on the right path, but a loss at Syracuse will set them back some. The Virginia Tech road win is still good, and they also have a solid home win against UNC, but their other Q2 win is game at Virginia, which is not nearly as impressive. Their next chance for a good win is a trip down to Tallahassee to take on FSU, where they'll be looking for a season sweep.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Miami (FL) (16-5 (8-2 ACC), NET 63, SOS 69, 2-1 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Miami currently looks like the best chance for a 2 bid ACC, even with 2 Q3 losses; home losses to FSU and UCF may be Q3, but they aren't all that bad. A road win against Duke is huge, and they also have another road win at VT to pick up a second Q1 win. Their Q2 wins also look solid, as they've beaten fellow ACC bubble teams UNC and Wake at home, as well as a neutral court win over North Texas that is 4 points away from being Q1. They host Notre Dame and go to Virginia next.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Notre Dame (13-7 (7-3 ACC), NET 72, SOS 46, 1-5 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Notre Dame had a huge chance at home against Duke, but lost it; not all that surprised that Duke won, even with their struggles, but the 43 points is a yikes. Their win over Kentucky is still pretty much the only thing keeping them in the conversation. They also have a decent home win against UNC, but their other Q2 wins are at home against Clemson and at Louisville, which are both very borderline. A road loss at Boston College certainly doesn't help their case, either. They have 2 more games this week: road trips to Miami and NC State.</div><div><div><b><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Florida State (13-7 (6-4 ACC), NET 79, SOS 63, 2-3 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Florida State had a trip to Georgia Tech and a home game against Virginia Tech this week, and they dropped both. That probably puts them either right on or on the wrong side of the bubble. Beating Duke at home and sweeping Miami are good, but they probably still need more, especially with 2 Q3 losses (the aforementioned trip to GT and a home loss to Cuse). A road game against Clemson is Q1 for now, and they also host Wake in this upcoming week.</div></div><div><br /></div><h2>Big 12</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Baylor, Kansas</div><div>Should be in: Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State, TCU</div><div>Work left to do: Oklahoma, West Virginia</div><div><br /></div><div>Welcome to lock status, Baylor and Kansas! I don't think they have any chance of missing, even if they lose out. Both teams are 7-2 Q1 and 4-1 Q2 at this point; Kansas needed one more win for me to lock them up as of yesterday, and they picked it up. The Big 12 still looks like it has 6 solidly in and 2 more on the bubble or probably in, with Oklahoma and WVU looking like the teams that are slipping. Kansas State seems solidly out of the picture at this point, and OKST is tourney banned, so 8 is probably the max.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Baylor (19-3 (7-2 Big 12), NET 6, SOS 23, 7-2 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Kansas (18-3 (7-1 Big 12), NET 9, SOS 9, 7-2 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Texas Tech (17-5 (6-3 Big 12), NET 10, SOS 18, 5-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Texas Tech picked up a home win against Texas, which is another good win to add to the pile. The road win at Baylor and home win vs. Kansas are also still great, and they really haven't done anything bad this season. They're a couple wins away from lock status – road trips to sliding WVU and Oklahoma might do it, but I'm not going to say they will for certain.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Texas (16-6 (5-4 Big 12), NET 16, SOS 35, 3-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I nearly put Texas in work left to do last week, but they proved that they really should be in, after picking up two Q1 wins; a blowout win at TCU and a squeaked-out home win against Tennessee. They may have lost to Texas Tech on the road after that, but that doesn't really change my opinion. The KSU road win and home loss are ping-ponging between Q1/Q2 and Q2/Q3 respectively, but they still look pretty easily in despite that. Home games against Iowa State and Kansas are up next, which could be some really good wins.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Iowa State (16-6 (3-6 Big 12), NET 28, SOS 17, 6-5 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Iowa State may have 6 Q1 wins, but I'm starting to get a little worried – a 3-6 conference record is not ideal, but they should be fine if they don't collapse down the stretch. They do look like they're turning things around somewhat, with the road win at OKST followed by handling Mizzou, and I'm not too worried about the Kansas loss. We'll see; they get a rematch with Texas, this time on the road, which I don't expect them to win; I'd be somewhat worried with a loss at WVU or vs. Kansas State, however. That would put them at 4-8 in conference, which is not great.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>TCU (15-4 (4-3 Big 12), NET 40, SOS 47, 4-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>TCU jumps to should be in after a home win against LSU and a road win at Oklahoma, both Q1 wins. I was not feeling great about them after that Texas loss, but they've bounced back well; the Oklahoma win pushed them into should be in for me. The Iowa State domination is still very impressive to me as well, and though they did lose to Santa Clara on a neutral court, I feel good about their chances as of now. Next up are home games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State.</div></div><div><br /></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Oklahoma (13-9 (3-6 Big 12), NET 39, SOS 15, 2-7 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Oklahoma is slipping a decent bit, after losses to Auburn and TCU. Neither are particularly bad, but that just adds to their 2-7 stretch. They did pick up a win at an even colder WVU this past week, but their last win before that was Iowa State on January 8. Games at Oklahoma State and vs. Texas Tech will be important.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>West Virginia (13-8 (2-6 Big 12), NET 62, SOS 11, 2-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>West Virginia was in pretty solid position, but they're now on a 6 game slide, and I'm feeling like they could easily miss now. A home win against UConn and a road win against UAB are still Q1, but past that, they really don't look all that impressive. They host Texas Tech and Iowa State next – losses to both put them in serious trouble.</div><div><br /></div><h2>Big East</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Villanova, Connecticut, Xavier, Marquette, Providence</div><div>Work left to do: Seton Hall, Creighton</div><div><br /></div><div>I'm not sure how many Big East teams will get in, but I'm guessing 6 or 7 – depends on what Seton Hall and Creighton do, but I think at least one will make it.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Villanova (16-5 (9-2 Big East), NET 5, SOS 14, 4-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Villanova looks pretty much the same as last week, except the Marquette loss at home is now Q1. A season sweep of Xavier, a road win over Seton Hall and a neutral court win against Tennessee are all good Q1 wins, while they don't really have a rough loss yet. A chance for revenge at Marquette and a home game against UConn are next.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Connecticut (15-5 (6-3 Big East), NET 17, SOS 68, 2-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>UConn should still be fine, but a home loss to Creighton does not impress. The Auburn neutral court win is keeping them in a good position, and they have another 2 solid wins (@ Marquette, VCU on a neutral court), but past that it's not great at all. The St. Bonaventure win dropped to Q3, though it's still decent, and this Creighton loss is Q2. They're on shakier ground than I think people realize; next up is a trip to Villanova and a home game against Marquette.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Xavier (15-5 (5-4 Big East), NET 18, SOS 19, 4-5 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Xavier still is solidly in, with their results this past week being a loss at home to Providence and road win at Creighton, which is Q1. A home win against Marquette is also Q1 now, so their Q1 win count has increased from 2 to 4 in this past week. They host Butler and DePaul next; they haven't lost a game below Q1, so they're looking to not pick up a bad loss.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Marquette (15-7 (7-4 Big East), NET 27, SOS 6, 6-5 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Marquette has handled a very tough schedule well so far, with a win at Villanova leading their resume. Home wins against Illinois, Xavier and Providence are all very solid, and while the home loss to Creighton is Q2 and the St. Bonaventure loss on a neutral court is Q3 those are both still not bad losses in my view. They get a rematch against Villanova at home and a trip to UConn up next, and they're looking to start up a new streak after their 7 game win streak was snapped by Providence.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Providence (19-2 (9-1 Big East), NET 29, SOS 41, 5-1 Q1, 5-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Providence is honestly the closest Big East team to a lock for me, despite being 29th in NET. 19-2 with wins at UConn, Xavier and Wisconsin, and home wins against Texas Tech and Marquette is very good. Sure, the Virginia loss on a neutral court is not good, but other than that, their resume looks great. One more win probably locks them up; avoiding a loss at Georgetown on Sunday would do it barring any rescheduled games.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Seton Hall (12-7 (4-5 Big East), NET 41, SOS 24, 3-5 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Well, Seton Hall is 2-4 in their last 6 and picked up a home loss to St. John's this week. That's enough for me to drop them to work left to do. Home wins against UConn and Texas and a road win against Michigan are all still good, but past that, what do they really have? They did manage to avoid a loss at Georgetown; next up, they host Creighton.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Creighton (13-7 (5-4 Big East, NET 65, SOS 25, 4-5 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Creighton picked up a huge win at UConn, which may have just put them on the right side of the bubble. They now have 4 Q1 wins, including a home win against Nova, a road win against Marquette and a neutral court win against BYU; they do have 2 rough losses (@ Butler is 4 points off Q3, vs. Arizona State is 10 points off Q4), but I think this puts them in the field at least as of now.</div><div><br /></div><h2>Big Ten</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin</div><div>Work left to do: Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota</div><div><br /></div><div>I was close to dropping Minnesota, but I decided to keep them around for now, as picking up a win in this next week would keep them in the conversation. The other reason I didn't drop Minnesota is because I think they have a better case than Michigan at this point, but Michigan is in too many brackets for me to feel comfortable leaving them off.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Purdue (18-3 (7-3 B1G), NET 8, SOS 32, 6-2 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Purdue is in a great position, and outside of that loss at Rutgers, they've looked solid pretty much the rest of the year. A win against Villanova on a neutral court is great, and they have 5 other Q1 wins to back it up; at Illinois, a sweep of Iowa, vs. Ohio State and UNC on a neutral court. They have too many opportunities for bad losses to be a lock, but they could be fairly soon; next up are games at Minnesota and vs. Michigan.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Illinois (15-5 (8-2 B1G), NET 14, SOS 30, 2-3 Q1, 5-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Illinois picked up a much needed win vs. Michigan State, and also managed to escape Northwestern this week. That puts them in a much better position than they were in last week. Still, after that MSU win, their resume isn't particularly impressive – wins at Iowa, vs. Michigan and vs. Notre Dame are the only particularly impressive other ones, though they do have 3 more Q2 wins. They host Wisconsin and go to Indiana next.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Ohio State (13-5 (6-3 B1G), NET 19, SOS 10, 3-5 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Well, Ohio State gave it their all to come back at Purdue, and actually managed to tie the game. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough for them to win. They didn't particularly need that win, though it would've been a great win if they got it, but they'll have to do with home wins against Duke and Wisconsin to lead their resume. However, after that, it falls off a decent bit; a neutral court win against Seton Hall is solid, but after that it's road wins against Minnesota and Penn State. They host Iowa and Maryland next.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Michigan State (17-4 (8-2 B1G), NET 20, SOS 20, 3-3 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Michigan State didn't look great throughout most of that Illinois loss, but they're still in good position; the Northwestern home loss is also still rough, but they certainly have the wins to make up for it. The road win at Wisconsin is probably their best win, and they also have neutral court wins against UConn and Loyola-Chicago, which are both Q1, not to mention the 6 Q2 wins (added two of those this week by beating Michigan at home and Maryland on the road; the latter wasn't exactly impressive but it was a win). Next up is a trip to Rutgers.</div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Wisconsin (17-3 (8-2 B1G), NET 21, SOS 8, 7-3 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Wisconsin still looks about the same as last week for me; their resume looks like one of the top in the country for me, but other metrics don't seem to agree. Either way, I would personally have them as a 1 or 2 seed, and they should be easily in right now; they're the closest B1G team to a lock for me, and winning both games this week would likely do it. A neutral court win over Houston and a road win against Purdue are two great wins, and the other 8 combined Q1/Q2 wins back them up too. None of their losses are bad; vs. MSU, vs. Providence and at Ohio State aren't bad losses at all. They play at Illinois tomorrow.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Iowa (14-7 (4-6 B1G), NET 24, SOS 36, 2-5 Q1, 2-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Iowa got a Q1 win in a way I did not expect (actually 2!) – the home win against Indiana climbed up to Q1 status, and so did the neutral court win against Utah State. However, I'm still not impressed at all by them, and the double OT loss to Penn State really makes me somewhat concerned. They travel to Ohio State next, followed by hosting Minnesota. The latter, if they lose, would likely be a Q3 loss, though Minnesota could maybe jump to the top 75 in NET?</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Indiana (16-5 (7-4 B1G), NET 30, SOS 84, 2-2 Q1, 2-3 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Indiana isn't quite into should be in yet; the home wins against Purdue and Ohio State are very good, but really they lack depth. The Maryland road win they just picked up is Q2, and they do have the neutral court win over Notre Dame, but I need something more. Their next game is at home against Illinois, which is an opportunity to really cement the fact that they should be in the tournament.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Michigan (11-8 (5-4 B1G), NET 53, SOS 28, 1-4 Q1, 1-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>I just don't really see Michigan as a tournament candidate right now, though the efficiency metrics do love them. The results just don't show it for me; wins at Indiana and vs. SDSU are decent, but they have some rough losses, including a Q3 loss (at home to Minnesota, which shouldn't really be Q3 but whatever). A road trip to Purdue on Saturday will be big.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Minnesota (11-7 (2-7 B1G), NET 87, SOS 27, 2-7 Q1, 0-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Pretty much everything I said about Minnesota last week still applies. Minnesota is currently in a spot where they just really need more opportunities. Right now, they're 2-7 in Q1, with some decent road wins at Michigan and Mississippi State, but that isn't enough to get them in right now. They host Purdue and travel to Iowa this upcoming week – they absolutely need to win one of those.</div><div><br /></div><h2><b>Mountain West</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: N/A</div><div>Work left to do: Boise State, Wyoming, Colorado State, San Diego State</div><div><br /></div><div>No should be in teams this week for the Mountain West, after CSU fell to Wyoming. Fresno is still on the outside looking in; Utah State also kinda is but I don't really see them making it as an at-large, but I would not be surprised to see them sneak in via a conference tournament run.</div><div><br /></div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b><br /></b></div><div><div><b>Boise State (16-4 (8-0 MWC), NET 31, SOS 92, 4-0 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Boise is on a 14 game win streak, which is impressive. They've picked up 4 Q1 wins, with 3 of those being in the last 2 weeks (road wins at SDSU, USU and Fresno). They would probably be in should be in, if it weren't for that home loss to CSU Bakersfield??? They also have 2 Q2 losses and a Q3 loss on a neutral court to St. Bonaventure, but those are somewhat more understandable, and they have solid wins. The next major contests are USU and SDSU at home, in about 3 weeks.</div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Wyoming (16-3 (6-1 MWC), NET 34, SOS 112, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>That Wyoming-CSU game was fun, and Wyoming managed to eke out the win. That definitely puts them on the right side of the bubble, but I'm just not sure how safe they actually are right now. The CSU win is actually a Q2 win, as it was at home; their Q1 win is a win at Utah State. They still don't have a bad loss, and they have the second game against USU up next, at home; if they win that, they could jump to should be in, but I just don't have a good read on the MWC at this point.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Colorado State (15-3 (6-3 MWC), NET 38, SOS 136, 2-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Colorado State drops to work left to do after having lost their last 2; the Wyoming one isn't bad, but losing at home to UNLV is a Q3 loss. They're still on the right side of the bubble, but definitely in a worse position than last week; the St. Mary's home win is still probably their best win, and is joined by the MSST neutral court win in Q2; the Creighton neutral court win and the USU home win are also good. They host San Diego State next.</div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>San Diego State (12-5 (4-2 MWC), NET 46, SOS 71, 1-4 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>San Diego State hasn't looked great as of late, and that makes them currently the bubbliest Mountain West team. Wins over St. Mary's on a neutral court and Colorado State at home are solid, but that's really it; a road win at UNLV is Q2 but not all that special, and they've picked up 5 losses (although none of them are bad). Next up is a big game at Colorado State.</div><div><br /></div><h2><b>Pac-12</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Arizona, UCLA, USC</div><div>Work left to do: Oregon, Stanford</div><div><br /></div><div>It seems like UCLA has turned out to be the best Pac-12 team. USC is struggling, and UCLA beat Arizona solidly, though it was at home. Colorado and Wazzu need more to be in the convo for me, while Stanford has solidified their case.</div><div><br /></div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Arizona (17-2 (7-1 Pac-12), NET 3, SOS 83, 1-2 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Arizona dropped the road trip to UCLA, and they get a home game against them on Thursday, followed by hosting USC. For their resume, it doesn't look all that different; they still have the Q1 win at Illinois, and wins at home against Wyoming, on a neutral court over Michigan and on the road at Stanford also help. They haven't picked up a bad loss yet this season, either.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>UCLA (16-2 (8-1 Pac-12), NET 11, SOS 53, 3-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>UCLA picked up a huge home win against Arizona, which adds to their great wins vs. Villanova and at Marquette, and gives them a really great top of their resume. The thing is that their Q2 wins aren't all that impressive; @ Colorado, @ UNLV, @ Cal and @ Utah are okay, but the last 2 are borderline Q3, and I would probably say the Q3 home win against Stanford that they picked up this week is better than all of those. Next up is the road trip to Zona.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>USC (18-3 (8-3 Pac-12), NET 25, SOS 173, 2-0 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Well, I am thoroughly unimpressed with USC. The home loss against Stanford is technically Q3, and they managed to get swept by them. Wins at Washington State and on a neutral court against San Diego State are Q1, but I just am not impressed at all. Still, as of now, they probably should be in. A road trip to Arizona comes on Saturday, and a week after that they host crosstown rivals UCLA.</div><div><br /></div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Oregon (12-7 (6-3 Pac-12), NET 59, SOS 48, 2-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 2 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Oregon is really just relying on a road sweep of the LA schools right now; their Q2 win vs. SMU is decent, but they seem right on the bubble, and would certainly not even be in the conversation without the UCLA and USC wins. The home loss to Colorado gives them a second Q3 loss, in addition to the ASU home loss, which might be too much. Up next is a trip to Colorado and Utah.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Stanford (13-7 (6-4 Pac-12), NET 89, SOS 10, 4-4 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Stanford finished off the season sweep against USC, which is huge for their resume; those are 2 of their 4 Q1 wins, and are the main thing keeping them alive. A neutral court win against Wyoming and a road win at Wazzu are solid and Q1, and they did pick up a home win against Oregon in here, but without those USC wins they're out of the picture. Road losses to Colorado and Washington aren't great, the latter being Q3, but I'd probably have them in right now. They host Wazzu and Washington this week.</div></div><div><br /></div><h2>SEC</h2><div><br /></div><div>Locks: Auburn</div><div>Should be in: Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama</div><div>Work left to do: Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Texas A&M</div><div><br /></div><div>Auburn has locked themselves up after picking up 3 wins since my last bubble watch, including one vs. Alabama yesterday, which really sealed any possible doubt. They're the last one loss team left, as well, and the current #1 team in the country. Overall, I probably see a 6 or 7 bid SEC; I don't think more than 2 of Arkansas/MSST/Florida/TAMU are making it, and possibly only 1.</div><div><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Locks</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Auburn (21-1 (9-0 SEC), NET 4, SOS 31, 7-1 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Kentucky (17-4 (7-2 SEC), NET 7, SOS 33, 4-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Kentucky totally changed their impression on me after that Kansas game. That was an impressive win, and has me convinced that they are legitimately good. That adds to the Tennessee and North Carolina wins at home and on a neutral court respectively as beatdowns of tournament teams. They've struggled at points (lost at Notre Dame, MSST took them to overtime at home), but they look good. Next up, they host Vanderbilt and travel to Alabama; I doubt those two wins would be enough to lock them, but we're getting to the point it's worth considering.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Tennessee (15-6 (6-3 SEC), NET 13, SOS 3, 3-6 Q1, 4-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Tennessee handled Florida and Texas A&M at home, and while they did lose at Texas, that's not a big deal. They just really need to do anything too bad – wins vs. Arizona and LSU are very solid, and their depth is building up some; the 6 losses aren't going to be as much of a problem the deeper we get into the season. Next up are trips to South Carolina and Mississippi State.</div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>LSU (16-6 (4-5 SEC), NET 15, SOS 22, 4-4 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I have no clue what to think about LSU now. I thought they were looking pretty good, but the Ole Miss home loss is Q3, and they did not look good in the TCU road loss either. The Kentucky and Tennessee wins are still keeping them solidly in, and the rest of their resume is still solid (9 combined Q1/Q2 wins), but I just don't know what to think. Next up are trips to Vandy and Texas A&M.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Alabama (14-8 (4-5 SEC), NET 22, SOS 1, 6-5 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>"I legitimately would not be surprised if they lost at Georgia and then beat Baylor at home and Auburn on the road. Well, maybe slightly, but you get the idea." I said this about them last week – they did the first two, and I think Auburn is just like immune to whatever voodoo Alabama has going on. They're 5-2 in Q1-A (I don't like to talk about these subtiers, but basically Q1-A is top tier Q1 and Q1-B is bottom tier Q1, same thing for Q2, Q3/Q4 aren't relevant enough), and 1-3 Q1-B; the 2 Q1-A losses are to Auburn, so yeah, I just have no idea. Next up they host Kentucky and travel to Ole Miss. I wouldn't be surprised if they win the first and lose the second at all at this point.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Florida (13-8 (3-3 SEC), NET 43, SOS 44, 1-5 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Florida is definitely in some more trouble now; the road loss to Tennessee is more a missed opportunity, but the road loss to Ole Miss could hurt. That, in addition to the Texas Southern loss which is Q4 means they need some solid wins. The Ohio State win on a neutral court is very good, but they really need more; wins vs. MSST/OKST at home are decent, but I don't know if they'd make it right now. The next big opportunity is a road trip to Kentucky on the 12th.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Mississippi State (14-7 (5-3 SEC), NET 47, SOS 78, 1-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Mississippi State still feels bubbly; the road game at Kentucky could've been huge, but they unfortunately dropped that one in OT. Home wins against Alabama, Arkansas and Furman, along with a neutral court win over Richmond will likely not cut it with 2 Q3 losses (admittedly they could be worse (vs. Minnesota, neutral vs. Louisville)). They very much have the opportunities – they look for their first road win of the year (!) at Arkansas, followed by hosting Tennessee and trips to LSU and Alabama. Losing all 4 would definitely knock them out of contention – I don't think 1-3 is enough to put them on the right side of the bubble either, so they probably need at least 2 of those, which would require a road win.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Arkansas (16-5 (5-3 SEC), NET 51, SOS 111, 1-3 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Arkansas is in the best position out of any of the work left to do SEC teams, with a good win at LSU and 5 Q2 wins to back it up. Still, they're certainly not safe – home losses to Vanderbilt and Hofstra do not help their case. Next up is a trip to Georgia, trying to avoid a 3rd Q3 loss, followed by what could be an important home game against Mississippi State.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Texas A&M (14-7 (4-5 SEC), NET 67, SOS 72, 0-6 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Texas A&M could certainly be dropped, but I've opted to keep them in for now despite them being on a 5 game losing streak. The home loss to South Carolina is rough, but other than that, all their losses are in Q1. Wins vs. Arkansas and on a neutral court against Notre Dame are decent, but that would probably not get them in right now. Next up is a home game against Missouri – if they can't break the streak there, they're probably out of the conversation.</div><div><br /></div><h2><b>West Coast</b></h2><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Gonzaga, St. Mary's</div><div>Work left to do: BYU, San Francisco</div><div><br /></div><div>This week, St. Mary's and BYU have swapped spots in should be in/work left to do. Also, Santa Clara picked up a huge win vs. BYU, but it's not enough to get them in the conversation after losing to San Francisco. </div><div><br /></div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Gonzaga (17-2 (6-0 WCC), NET 1, SOS 79, 3-2 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Not much has changed since last week for Gonzaga; they're still just picking up solid wins and not bad losses. Wins on a neutral court against Texas Tech and UCLA are very good, and home wins against Texas, BYU and San Francisco are solid. They have two losses, both neutral court losses, to Duke and Alabama. As long as they don't drop any random game, their next real test will be a road trip to BYU on Saturday. Should be fun!</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>St. Mary's (16-4 (5-1 WCC), NET 23, SOS 75, 2-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>St. Mary's is looking like a pretty sure bet to make the tournament now – the road win against San Francisco added another needed win, which also makes up for them losing a Q1 win. They don't have a bad loss (worst is against SDSU on a neutral court), and as long as they don't pick one up, they should be fine. Next opportunity for a Q1/Q2 win is a trip to Santa Clara on the 8th.</div><div><br /></div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b><br /></b></div><div><div><b>BYU (15-6 (5-3 WCC), NET 33, SOS 56, 3-1 Q1, 6-4 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Well, BYU went from solidly in to losing to Pacific since the last watch. Yikes. Still, with 9 Q1/Q2 wins, I think they're still in the field pretty clearly, but losses at Santa Clara and Pacific do not help. The road win at San Francisco and home win vs. St. Mary's certainly are good, but they have a lot of questionable losses, not just those two (@ Utah Valley, Vandy on a neutral court are also Q2 but not great). They host San Francisco and Gonzaga this week – will be interesting to see how that shakes out.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>San Francisco (16-5 (4-3), NET 36, SOS 103, 2-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>San Francisco would only really feel safe with a win against one of the big WCC teams; they're still in for now, but certainly not safely in; their 2 Q1 wins are 6 and 3 points off Q2 respectively (neutral court wins against Davidson and UAB), and the Grand Canyon loss has dropped to Q3. They travel to BYU on Thursday, and if they don't win that, the only other shot at a win over the big 3 in the WCC is a late home game against Gonzaga. I have a feeling they'll be right on the bubble at the end of the year if they don't beat BYU or pull off a big win in the WCC tourney.</div><div><br /></div><h2>Others</h2></div><div><br /></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Murray State</div><div>Work left to do: Loyola-Chicago, UAB, Belmont, Iona, Toledo, Ohio</div><div><br /></div><div>This week's list of keep an eye on them!: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Drake, and Oakland! I think we're likely to see all of those 5 outside of Drake win their conference tournaments, though the WAC and SoCon are tough, so we could see one of those drop their conference tournament.</div><div><br /></div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><br /></div><div><b>Murray State (17-2 (10-0 OVC), NET 26, SOS 209, 2-1 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Murray State didn't look great as of these past few games, but they still seem destined for a tournament bid as long as they don't drop a Q4 game, which is the majority of games in this conference, so... Either way, right now, they'd easily be in as an at-large, with only one real rough loss (ETSU on a neutral court) and Q1 wins at Belmont and Memphis, along with a home win over Chattanooga. The next non-Q4 game is a trip to Morehead State on February 12, and if they don't drop any of the Q4 games, they're in great shape.</div><div><br /></div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Loyola-Chicago (15-4 (7-2 MVC), NET 32, SOS 124, 1-2 Q1, 3-2 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Loyola-Chicago is not looking too good as of late; they only scored 44 in a road win at Southern Illinois, and they dropped a game at Drake. I really don't know how good their at-large case is now – they certainly have some work left to do in my book. Vandy, DePaul and Southern Illinois are Q2 wins, but they're not exactly the most impressive Q2 wins, so the main thing they have is a neutral court win over San Francisco. On Sunday, they travel to Missouri State, which is a Q1 opportunity and a chance for revenge.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>UAB (15-5 (7-2 C-USA), NET 48, SOS 185, 2-1 Q1, 1-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Yikes, a loss to a Marshall team on a 10 game losing streak? They're lucky that's not a Q4 loss, but that still gives them a second Q3 loss, in addition to Rice. The road wins against North Texas and Saint Louis are huge, especially considering the fact that they have 1 Q1/Q2 game left, which is them hosting North Texas on the 19th. I'm not sure how much of an at-large chance they have, but it's certainly worse than last week.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Belmont (16-5 (7-2 OVC), NET 50, SOS 127, 1-3 Q1, 4-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Belmont's resume improved greatly these past 9 days as a result of other teams' doings. The Murray State and Ohio losses are now Q1, and the Furman and Drake wins are now Q2. They still also have the wins that had them up here in the first place; at Saint Louis, vs. Chattanooga and vs. Iona on a neutral court. Sure, the Dayton and Morehead State losses aren't great, but I think Belmont has a much better case than last week.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>North Texas (13-4 (8-1 C-USA), NET 54, SOS 144, 0-1 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>I've opted to include North Texas for this watch, as I think they have a reasonable enough case now; they have 3 okay Q2 wins, @ Wichita State, @ Louisiana Tech, and a neutral court win against Drake. The Buffalo home loss hurts somewhat, but I think they have enough of case to be here. They travel to UAB on the 19th; that will be huge.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Iona (18-3 (10-0 MAAC), NET 58, SOS 157, 1-3 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Nothing's really changed with Iona since last week; they still have a solid resume with no bad losses and a neutral court win over Alabama. Losses to Belmont on a neutral court and Saint Louis are still Q1, and certainly could be a lot worse. Wins against Liberty on a neutral court and Monmouth on the road are their Q2 wins. They will not have another Q1/Q2 opportunity, unless they face a Monmouth team that sits at or above 100 NET in the conference tournament, or one of their other wins jump up to Q2 which doesn't seem likely.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Toledo (17-4 (10-1 MAC), NET 61, SOS 236, 1-1 Q1, 0-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>The winner of Ohio @ Toledo will most likely be the only one in the watch for next week, but for this week, I figured I'd include both. Toledo's resume right now is pretty much just the Ohio road win, but a sweep of them I think would shove them in the at-large convo. However, it really wouldn't be that much, especially if Ohio falls below 75 in NET. That's coming up on the 8th, so until then, we wait.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Ohio (16-3 (8-1 MAC), NET 74, SOS 206, 0-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>The winner of Ohio @ Toledo will most likely be the only one in the watch for next week, but for this week, I figured I'd include both. I think Ohio has a much better chance, on the back of a home win against Belmont and a road win at Buffalo, along with the lack of a bad loss. However, if they drop both to Toledo, they don't have another chance to pick something big up. The matchup on February 8 should be good.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Statistics:</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>+ Michigan, North Texas</div><div><br /></div><div>– Cincinnati, UCF, St. Bonaventure</div><div><br /></div><div>Total locks: 3 (2 autobids)</div><div><br /></div><div>Total should be in: 27 (8 autobids)</div><div><br /></div><div>Total work left to do: 34 (5 autobids)</div><div><br /></div><div>Spots vs. teams included (accounting for autobids): 36, 18 taken by locks/should be in, 18 spots for 29 work left to do</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, I doubt I'll be getting one up next week, so my next one will probably come in two weeks. See you whenever the next one pops up!</div>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-78582871516551788492022-01-24T15:30:00.001-08:002022-01-24T15:30:18.807-08:00Skarmory's Bubble Watch: 01/24/22<p>Hey, this is back! I titled the blog with this and I barely made any bubble watches, but they are one of my favorite things to make; just takes a while and I couldn't finish one before. Everything is post-Jan 23 games; data is from warrennolan.com, and non-D1 wins aren't counted in records.</p><h2 style="text-align: left;">American</h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Houston</div><div>Work left to do: SMU, Cincinnati, UCF</div><div><br /></div><div>UCF, SMU and Memphis are all borderline; I have included UCF & SMU, but they definitely have a very uphill battle to fight. Memphis needs more to make it on, as a few bad losses and 8 total losses at this point is way too much for me to consider them.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><b>Houston (17-2 (6-0 AAC), NET 3, SOS 163, 1-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Houston just put up an amazing defensive showcase against East Carolina. Granted, ECU isn't all that good, but it was awesome to watch. Resume-wise, they don't have all that much in the win column, but they haven't done anything bad either. A neutral court loss to Wisconsin and a road loss to Alabama aren't bad, but their Q1/Q2 wins are neutral court wins against Oklahoma State and Oregon, plus a road win at Temple. Plenty of games to add to that are still left on their schedule, as road contests at Cincinnati and SMU are currently Q1 games, while road contests against UCF and Memphis are higher-end Q2 games.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><b>SMU (14-4 (5-1 AAC), NET 59, SOS 212, 0-2 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>As of now, SMU has quite a bit of work to do to get in the tourney. Neutral court losses to Missouri and Loyola Marymount are Q3 losses, and road wins at Memphis and Tulane and a home win against Dayton are their Q2 wins. A home game against Houston comes on February 9th, which could be the key game for an NCAA tournament bid, and if they don't win that they have an uphill battle to fight.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Cincinnati (13-5 (4-2 AAC), NET 65, SOS 140, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Cincinnati may be in trouble as well, but a neutral court win against Illinois is huge. They also have a home win against SMU and a road win against Wichita State, which help mitigate home losses to Monmouth and Tulane. They have one contest left against all of the AAC tournament hopefuls, which could very easily be the difference between them getting in and one of the others making it; two of their last three games are at UCF and at SMU, which may turn into win-and-in type of games, though there will be a conference tournament afterwards.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>UCF (12-5 (4-3 AAC), NET 78, SOS 132, 1-2 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>UCF sits in a fairly similar situation to the other two, but with their Q3 losses being at home to Temple and at USF, I would say those are even worse than the other two teams'. A road win at Miami and a home win against Michigan are good, however, and they did beat Memphis at home and Temple on the road (which are both barely Q2). A home chance against Houston could be make or break for them, like it is for SMU.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Atlantic 10</h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Davidson</div><div>Work left to do: VCU, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure</div><div><br /></div><div>Hey, the A10 has a section this year! Enough teams are on the bubble in the A10 where I think it fits to have a section. Also, can I take some time to point out Dayton's resume? 2-1 Q1 with a neutral court win against Kansas, 3-3 Q2, and 3 Q4 losses. I don't think they have a chance, but that is a really interesting resume.</div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><b>Davidson (15-2 (6-0 A10), NET 37, SOS 169, 2-1 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Davidson earned a top 25 spot this week! I was not expecting that, but they made it. Their resume is headlined by a neutral court win against Alabama, followed by a road win at VCU. The two losses on a neutral court to both San Francisco and New Mexico State aren't great, but could certainly be worse. They also have home games against VCU and St. Bonaventure coming up soon.</div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b>VCU (11-6 (4-2 A10), NET 67, SOS 76, 1-2 Q1, 2-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>VCU seems borderline on inclusion for me. However, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Wins at Dayton and Vandy, and a neutral court win against Syracuse are decent, but that's it for their wins. A loss at home to Wagner is Q3, though just barely, and they have 3 Q2 losses (vs. Davidson, vs. Chattanooga, @ St. Bonaventure). A win at Davidson on Wednesday would be huge. If they don't win that, they have a very uphill battle to fight.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Saint Louis (11-6 (3-2 A10), NET 68, SOS 105, 1-3 Q1, 1-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Saint Louis and VCU look fairly similar resume-wise, but despite VCU having an extra Q2 win, I think Saint Louis's wins are better. A road win against Boise is Q1 and is against a bubble team, and they also have a home win against a bubble Iona team that's Q2. The road loss to UMass is rough, but I still think they're in the conversation. Their next Q1/Q2 game is in 2 weeks, when they host Dayton.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>St. Bonaventure (11-4 (3-1 A10), NET 92, SOS 102, 2-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Despite sitting at 92nd in NET (I have no idea why), St. Bonaventure seems like the most likely A10 team to get a second bid, at least as of today. Neutral court wins over Marquette and Boise are good, and a home win against fellow bubble hopeful VCU also helps out. The home loss to Northern Iowa isn't great, but outside of that, they don't have anything too bad on their resume. A home game against Davidson next Tuesday will be a big chance for them to improve their chances at a tourney bid.</div></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">ACC</h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Duke</div><div>Work left to do: Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida State, Miami (FL), Notre Dame</div><div><br /></div><div>Virginia Tech feels similar to Memphis resume-wise, but they have more chances to make it up. They also have a higher NET rating. I wouldn't say they're in the picture yet, but they might be soon.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><b>Duke (15-3 (5-2 ACC), NET 12, SOS 73, 3-2 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Duke has looked like the one certainty to make the tournament in an otherwise weak ACC. Even then, I don't think Duke looks great, but they do look like the best team in the conference. Losses at Florida State and at home against Miami aren't necessarily encouraging, but neutral court wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky very much are. They're not quite to lock status yet, especially in a weaker ACC.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><b>Wake Forest (16-4 (6-3 ACC), NET 40, SOS 110, 1-3 Q1, 3-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Wake has set themselves up in a solid position so far, with some decent wins at Virginia Tech, vs. UNC and vs. Miami, all potential bubble teams, and their only concerning loss being at Louisville. If they don't fall apart or pick up some bad losses, they'll be in, but as of now they remain in work left to do.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>North Carolina (12-6 (4-3 ACC), NET 51, SOS 42, 0-6 Q1, 1-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I don't really know what to make of North Carolina. They're 0-6 in Q1, but they've won their only Q2 game and haven't lost anything below Q1. Their Q2 win is at home against Michigan, which is decent, but honestly I just really need more data points for them. Their next big test is at home against Duke, which is obviously a huge game anyway; right before that, they have their second Q2 game of the year, a road trip to Louisville. With 3 Q1 and 4 Q2 games left on their schedule as it stands now, we'll have to wait to see what they do in those.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Florida State (13-5 (6-2 ACC), NET 58, SOS 56, 2-3 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>FSU picked up two very timely huge wins, a great home in in OT against Duke and a home win against Miami (which they nearly blew a 43-19 lead in...) to put themselves in the field for now in my opinion. Those two wins, in addition to a road win at Miami as well, help build a solid case. However, they do have two Q3 losses; a home loss to Syracuse and a neutral court loss to South Carolina. Their spot is clearly not secure, so we'll see if they can hold onto it.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Miami (FL) (14-5 (6-2 ACC), NET 69, SOS 65, 1-2 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Miami holds a great win at Duke and backs it up with some solid wins vs. Wake and UNC. I would say that Miami is currently in the second best position out of ACC teams, as even their 1 Q3 loss is a home loss to a bubble team in UCF. Losing both games to FSU certainly doesn't help, but they're in a decent position as of now.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Notre Dame (11-6 (5-2 ACC), NET 72, SOS 44, 1-4 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Notre Dame has a great home win against Kentucky, which is the main thing holding their bubble hopes together. Their 2 Q2 wins are at home against UNC and at Louisville; the first is decent, the second is okay; but they still also have a rough loss at Boston College. They still have some chances, but not that many games left against other contenders; road games against Wake, FSU and Miami are their only ones left against teams currently in this section.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Big 12</h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State</div><div>Work left to do: Oklahoma, TCU, West Virginia</div><div><br /></div><div>I debated throwing Kansas State in; if they'd beaten Kansas, they certainly would have been in. For now, I only have 8 out of the 9 eligible Big 12 teams on my watch. KSU needs something significant, and as of now, they don't really have it yet.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><b>Baylor (17-2 (5-2 Big 12), NET 4, SOS 18, 7-1 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Baylor is very close to being an immediate lock, but with how they've been playing as of late, I don't feel comfortable locking them up yet. Either way, their resume is still great (7 Q1 wins speak for themselves), and their only real blemish is a home loss to Oklahoma State; losing at home to Texas Tech is not too bad. Wins at home against KSU and at Alabama will almost certainly lock them up.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Kansas (16-2 (5-1 Big 12), NET 7, SOS 27, 5-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Kansas is in a similar spot to Baylor – not quite locked yet, but a couple more wins and they will be. Their resume feels very similar, with a bad loss on a neutral court to Dayton but other than that nothing too bad. They have a chance for revenge against TTU at home, followed by another home game against Kentucky. Winning those two will also most likely lock them up.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Texas Tech (15-4 (5-2 Big 12), NET 14, SOS 23, 4-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Texas Tech has two great wins, one on the road against Baylor and one at home against Kansas. That puts them already in great shape, and with no real bad losses and some more solid wins (neutral against Tenn, home vs. ISU are also Q1), they look pretty good right now. They get a chance to sweep Kansas when they visit them in their next game – could be very interesting.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Texas (14-5 (4-3 Big 12), NET 17, SOS 68, 1-4 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I was very close to putting Texas in work left to do, because honestly I just don't see what they've done that's all that impressive. A road win against Kansas State is their only Q1 win, and they have some decent home wins against Oklahoma, WVU and Oklahoma State, but they need something more for me to feel like they really solidly should be in. Games at TCU and vs. Tennessee will be big for this; 2 Q1 games that will be fairly important.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Iowa State (14-5 (2-5 Big 12), NET 30, SOS 11, 5-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Iowa State could certainly be in the work left to do category, but I think their 5 Q1 wins keep them in should be in, for now. Wins at home against TTU, Texas and Iowa, a neutral court win over Xavier and a road win at Creighton are all solid wins, and their one rough game was their loss to TCU, who is still looking like a tournament team. They'll be fine if they don't completely collapse.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><b>Oklahoma (12-7 (2-5 Big 12), NET 41, SOS 20, 1-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Oklahoma sits pretty clearly right on the bubble for me for now. The home loss to Butler is concerning, and with only 1 Q1 win (vs. ISU), it doesn't look particularly amazing. However, their 4 Q2 wins all seem solid; vs. Florida, neutral court against Arkansas, at UCF and vs. Kansas State. We'll see how it goes, but they definitely have some work left to do. The next two games are at West Virginia and Auburn.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>TCU (13-3 (3-2 Big 12), NET 44, SOS 84, 2-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>TCU has not yet run into the really tough part of their schedule, so it'll be interesting to see how they do. The domination of Iowa State on the road was very impressive to me, but other than that, they don't have too much. The neutral court loss to Santa Clara is uh... not great, and their other Q1/Q2 wins are decent (vs. Oklahoma, @ KSU, neutral against TAMU), but there's still some question marks. Home games against Texas and LSU should answer some of them.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>West Virginia (13-5 (2-4 Big 12), NET 48, SOS 15, 2-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>West Virginia has looked solid so far this season – not doing anything wrong, just chugging along. They have 2 Q1 wins – vs. Connecticut and at UAB – and no bad losses (the worst one being on a neutral court against Marquette). Their Q2 wins aren't the most impressive, but if they keep up what they're doing, they should be fine – but right now, they stay in work left to do.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Big East</h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Villanova, Connecticut, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence</div><div>Work left to do: Creighton</div><div><br /></div><div>I think the Big East will probably get these 7 teams in; I don't see any of them really falling out, or anyone else jumping in.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><b>Villanova (14-5 (7-2 Big East), NET 6, SOS 4, 4-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Villanova has played a very tough schedule, and has handled it fairly well so far. A season sweep of Xavier, a road win over Seton Hall and a neutral court win against Tennessee are all good Q1 wins, while their only 2 losses which are somewhat rough are at Creighton and vs. Marquette. With plenty of chances for Q3 losses (and even a Q4 loss), they aren't nearly safe enough to be locked up yet.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Connecticut (13-4 (4-2 Big East), NET 15, SOS 50, 2-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>UConn has a fairly solid resume – nothing bad, and a great win over Auburn on a neutral court headlining it. They don't have a bad loss, and they have solid wins past that (at Marquette, along with neutral court wins over bubble teams VCU and St. Bonaventure). The one Q2 loss is to a Providence team which is very much underrated by NET. As long as they don't do anything too bad, they should be fine.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Xavier (14-4 (4-3 Big East), NET 19, SOS 17, 2-4 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Xavier is another team that hasn't done anything too notable; they have no bad losses, and a bunch of decent wins. Home wins against Ohio State and Marquette are both solid, and they have good depth too (a Q1 road win at Oklahoma State is the best out of those). They're solidly in right now, and probably will stay that way.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Seton Hall (11-5 (3-4 Big East), NET 29, SOS 10, 3-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I don't know how I feel about Seton Hall. Home wins against UConn and Texas are solid, and a road win against Michigan is decent, but that's really it for them. They should be fairly solidly in for now, but I'm not sure whether to keep them in should be in or work left to do. A road loss to DePaul isn't great, either. I've left them in should be in for now, but they could fall down to work left to do fairly easily.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Marquette (14-6 (6-3 Big East), NET 32, SOS 7, 6-4 Q1, 1-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Marquette has an interesting resume. Plenty of good wins (at Villanova, vs. Illinois, vs. Xavier, vs. Seton Hall are all very good), but they also have some more meh losses, like one on a neutral court to St. Bonaventure. However, what I'm seeing makes me say that they're solidly in for now. Those wins are really good. If they keep up what they're doing, 5 of their last 6 games are against non-tournament hopefuls, so they have an easier time the rest of the way, and they're already on a 6 game winning streak.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Providence (16-2 (6-1 Big East), NET 39, SOS 66, 4-1 Q1, 3-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>The efficiency metrics and NET seem to dislike Providence, but they have been playing well from my view. Outside of a weird early season neutral court loss to Virginia, they've looked good the rest of the year, with road wins at Wisconsin & UConn and a home win against TTU all being very good. As long as they keep up what they're doing, they'll easily be in.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><b>Creighton (12-5 (4-2 Big East, NET 52, SOS 32, 3-4 Q1, 0-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I could've put Creighton in should be in, but they're not quite there yet for me. A home win over Villanova is a good starting point for them, and they also have a road win against Marquette and a neutral court win against BYU. However, they have no Q2 games yet, and they lost at home to Arizona State. They'll get more Q1/Q2 games, but we'll just have to see what they do with them.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Big Ten</h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State</div><div>Work left to do: Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota</div><div><br /></div><div>Michigan and Rutgers have too much work to do to be in the conversation as of now. Michigan was close, but they need more decent wins, even with how the metrics love them. Rutgers can get into the convo if they pick up some good wins as well.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><b>Purdue (16-3 (5-3 B1G), NET 8, SOS 51, 3-2 Q1, 3-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Purdue has looked fairly good this year, though they do have that weird loss at Rutgers. However, they definitely have the wins and metrics to make up for it. A neutral court win over Villanova leads their resume, and that Rutgers loss is the only major blemish, but it's still Q2. As long as they don't pick up a bunch of bad losses, they'll make the tournament.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Illinois (13-5 (6-2 B1G), NET 13, SOS 34, 1-3 Q1, 4-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Kenpom/similar metrics and NET love Illinois, but that hasn't translated particularly well to the floor. A road win against Iowa is solid, but that's really it for their good wins, and without Cockburn they struggle; see the recent road loss to Maryland for an example. A home game against Michigan State will be big in my view, as I'm not sure what I think of them right now.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Michigan State (15-3 (6-1 B1G), NET 18, SOS 21, 3-2 Q1, 4-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Michigan State has one weird home loss to Northwestern, which is Q3, but other than that they've looked good. Losses to Baylor and Kansas on a neutral court are not bad, and wins at Wisconsin and against UConn/Loyola on neutral courts are good. Their trip to Illinois will be big for both teams, and I'm intrigued to see how it plays out.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Wisconsin (15-3 (6-2 B1G), NET 21, SOS 5, 5-2 Q1, 5-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Wisconsin's resume looks like one of the top in the country for me, but other metrics don't seem to agree. Either way, I would personally have them as a 1 or 2 seed, and they should be easily in right now. A neutral court win over Houston and a road win against Purdue are two great wins, and the other 8 combined Q1/Q2 wins back them up too. None of their losses are bad; vs. MSU, vs. Providence and at Ohio State aren't bad losses at all.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Ohio State (12-4 (5-2 B1G), NET 23, SOS 16, 3-4 Q1, 1-0 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Ohio State hasn't done anything too bad this year, and they have some decent wins; vs. Duke & Wisconsin are both very good. However, they really need more wins in Q1/Q2; for now they're pretty solidly in, but we'll have to see how they do in their remaining Q1/Q2 games. Their next 2 games are road games at Minnesota and Purdue; we'll see how those go.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Work left to do</h3><div><b>Iowa (14-5 (4-4 B1G), NET 22, SOS 61, 0-4 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Iowa hasn't done too much notable - their Q2 wins are okay (vs. Indiana, neutral against USU, @ Minny and @ Virginia), but they also have a Q2 loss at Rutgers, and they haven't won a Q1 game yet. They need to pick up a Q1 win in here somewhere; they get a chance while hosting Purdue in their next game.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Indiana (14-5 (5-4 B1G), NET 42, SOS 86, 2-2 Q1, 1-3 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Indiana picked up a huge win at home against Purdue, which probably just put them on the right side of the bubble - one home win against OSU and a neutral court win over Notre Dame before may not have been enough. Even with that win, they have an unimpressive 1-3 Q2 record, with losses at Penn State and Syracuse in that. They're 12-1 at home and 1-4 on the road; we'll see what they can do at Maryland. If they lose that one, that does not bode well.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Minnesota (11-5 (2-5 B1G), NET 79, SOS 37, 2-5 Q1, 0-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Minnesota is currently in a spot where they just really need more opportunities. Right now, they're 2-5 in Q1, with some decent road wins at Michigan and Mississippi State, but that probably isn't enough to get them in. They have a stretch of vs. Ohio State, at Wisconsin and vs. Purdue coming up - they probably need to at least win one of those.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><b>Mountain West</b></h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Colorado State</div><div>Work left to do: Wyoming, Boise State, San Diego State</div><div><br /></div><div>Hey, the Mountain West has a section this year! I think there's enough reasonable bubble candidates for a MWC section this year, as there are at least 4 for this week's watch, and Fresno may be worth keeping an eye on as well.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Should be in</h3><div><b>Colorado State (14-1 (5-1 MWC), NET 27, SOS 175, 2-1 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Colorado State has looked pretty good so far, outside of a blowout loss at San Diego State. Wins over St. Mary's at home and Mississippi State/Creighton on a neutral court put them in a very good position, as long as they don't do anything awful in conference. If they can survive the two Nevada schools at home, they get Wyoming on the road and a chance for revenge vs. San Diego State. If they can win those, they'll be in great shape.</div><h3 style="text-align: left;"><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b>Wyoming (14-2 (4-0 MWC), NET 31, SOS 158, 1-1 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>More is needed from Wyoming. They don't have a bad loss, but their best win is at Utah State (or at Grand Canyon, take your pick). They need something more – a road game at Boise is next up, and they get Colorado State at home next Monday. Those 2 games should tell us whether Wyoming is a legitimate tourney contender.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Boise State (14-4 (6-0 MWC), NET 43, SOS 147, 2-0 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Well uh, that was certainly a win at SDSU. It's the type of top win they needed, and they managed it while only scoring 42, winning 42-37. I'm not sure whether to think they're good or bad after that. Either way, they really needed that win, as their best win before that was one of Wazzu on a neutral court, USU on the road or Fresno at home. Those now sit as okay depth wins, which is important because they have some losses which do not impress. Losses at home to Saint Louis, on a neutral court to St. Bonaventure and at UC Irvine are all within 10 ranks of being Q3 losses, so they could reasonably fluctuate there, though the first two are still bubble teams. I also almost missed their Q4 loss at home to Cal State Bakersfield...yikes. A home game against Wyoming and a road trip to Fresno will likely be high-end Q2 and low-end Q1 respectively, and could be huge for their resume.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>San Diego State (10-4 (2-1 MWC), NET 47, SOS 56, 2-3 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>San Diego State has a great home win against Colorado State to lead their resume, but that and a neutral court win against St. Mary's are their only two real good wins; UNLV on the road is I guess Q2, but not particularly impressive. The Boise game was a missed opportunity (I suspect in more ways than one – 37 points and still being in the game? seriously?), but they do get road chances at Utah State and Colorado State in the next 2 weeks to get that type of a win.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><b>Pac-12</b></h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Arizona, UCLA, USC</div><div>Work left to do: Oregon, Stanford</div><div><br /></div><div>I haven't really seen any of these teams play. I also don't know too much about them, but I'm hoping to see the Arizona-UCLA-USC trio of games in early February.</div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><b>Arizona (16-1 (6-0 Pac-12), NET 1, SOS 99, 2-1 Q1, 4-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Arizona sits at #1 in NET as of now; not sure I agree with that, but they certainly do seem good. Honestly though, their resume feels somewhat underwhelming for a #1 team in NET, though I haven't really seen them play. Q1 wins at Illinois and on a neutral court against Michigan are decent, and a home win against Wyoming along with a road win at Stanford also help, it's still not that significant for me. Their one loss certainly isn't bad (at Tennessee), and I'm excited for their homestand against UCLA and USC on Feb 3/5. Until then, I'll wait.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>UCLA (13-2 (5-1 Pac-12), NET 16, SOS 62, 2-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>UCLA has 2 very solid wins to start off their resume, home against Villanova and at Marquette, but it really just falls off there. They did not look impressive in their neutral court loss to Gonzaga, and a home loss to Oregon is not great. Their Q2 wins are all pretty meh, comprising 3 borderline Q3 wins and a road win at Colorado, which doesn't feel that inspiring.The Arizona and USC games will tell me a lot.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>USC (16-2 (6-2 Pac-12), NET 24, SOS 173, 2-0 Q1, 4-2 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I know even less about USC than I do about Arizona and UCLA. 2 Q1 wins on a neutral court against SDSU and at Wazzu both seem decent, but they also have a home loss to Oregon and a road loss at Stanford. They should be in the tournament at this point, but I just don't really know what to say here; their Q2 wins are all pretty meh, comprising 3 borderline Q3 wins and a road win at Colorado, like UCLA. Completing the triangle, I'm intrigued for the Arizona/UCLA games.</div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b>Oregon (11-6 (5-2 Pac-12), NET 49, SOS 29, 2-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>A road sweep of the LA schools puts Oregon in the tournament for now, but they are certainly still on the bubble. A home win against SMU is their Q2 win, which is also decent. However, that home loss to Arizona State is Q3 and not very good. A road loss to a fellow bubble team in Stanford doesn't help their case either. Road games at Colorado and Utah will be Q2 opportunities, and if they lose both, they are not in good shape.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Stanford (11-6 (4-3 Pac-12), NET 93, SOS 19, 3-3 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Yes, I am including a Stanford team that is 93 in NET. I see their wins as being enough to keep them in the conversation - home wins against USC and Oregon, a neutral court win against Wyoming and a road win against Wazzu are all Q1/Q2 and decent. However, they do have some problematic losses; road losses to Santa Clara, Colorado and Washington do not inspire me. They travel to LA to face USC and UCLA next; they probably need to win at least one of those.</div></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">SEC</h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama</div><div>Work left to do: Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Texas A&M</div><div><br /></div><div>I...don't really have anything to say here. Congrats to Auburn on their first ever #1 ranking! Alabama has one of the weirdest resumes of any team this year (probably second to Dayton). Let's just get into the bubble teams, I guess?</div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><b>Auburn (18-1 (7-0 SEC), NET 5, SOS 31, 5-1 Q1, 5-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Auburn is probably the closest team to being a lock in my first bubble watch. They earned a well-deserved first ever #1 ranking this week, backed by a win at home against Kentucky that pushed them over the edge. Wins at home against LSU, at Alabama and against Loyola-Chicago on a neutral court are all solid. They have plenty of depth as well. If they win at Mizzou and vs. Oklahoma, most likely they're a lock.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Kentucky (15-4 (5-2 SEC), NET 9, SOS 48, 2-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Honestly, I haven't been particularly impressed by Kentucky at many points this season, outside of the great home win against Tennessee and the first half of the Auburn game. Outside of that, they've looked okay to me, but not great. Their resume doesn't exactly look great either, with wins at Texas A&M, against UNC on a neutral court and at Vandy being okay but not great. Their loss at Notre Dame isn't great, but the rest isn't bad at all. Overall, I'm just not really sure what to think.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>LSU (15-4 (3-4 SEC), NET 10, SOS 12, 4-3 Q1, 3-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>LSU has been sneakily building up a solid resume, and I haven't seen people pay all that much attention to them. Home wins against Kentucky and Tennessee are very good, and they have solid depth too. The home loss to Arkansas isn't great, but their resume looks pretty good outside of that. However, the 3 game losing streak they're on (vs. Arkansas, @ Alabama, @ Tennessee) doesn't encourage me. Games vs. Texas A&M and at TCU are chances to break that streak with a decent win.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Tennessee (13-5 (4-3 SEC), NET 11, SOS 3, 2-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Tennessee picked up a very good win at home against LSU to add to their Arizona win, which makes 2 wins over top 10 teams in NET. Past that, their resume is okay, but not great; no bad losses, but the next best win is a neutral court win over UNC, and past that road wins at Vandy/Colorado. Games at home against Florida and at Texas should be good to add to that depth, or tell us if they still have a decent bit of work left to do.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Alabama (13-6 (4-3 SEC), NET 20, SOS 1, 5-4 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>What is wrong with Alabama? Like seriously, I don't even know where to begin with them. They have 5 Q1 wins, which include a neutral court win over Gonzaga, and home wins against Houston, Tennessee and LSU, but also losses at Memphis and Missouri, along with some losses to more likely tourney teams in Mississippi State on the road, Iona, and Davidson, the latter two both on a neutral court. I legitimately would not be surprised if they lost at Georgia and then beat Baylor at home and Auburn on the road. Well, maybe slightly, but you get the idea.</div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><b>Florida (12-6 (3-3 SEC), NET 34, SOS 53, 1-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Florida is loved by the non-resume metrics, but that doesn't help their loss to Texas Southern. Granted, I won't knock anyone too hard for losing to Texas Southern (it always happens to someone), but it certainly does not help. A neutral court win over Ohio State is good, and home wins over Mississippi State and Florida State are decent, but that TXSO loss hangs a dark cloud over their resume. They actually have 3 games this week; at Ole Miss on Monday, a huge one at Tennessee on Wednesday, and vs. OKST in the Big 12-SEC challenge on Saturday.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Mississippi State (13-5 (4-2 SEC), NET 45, SOS 154, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Mississippi State's resume is headlined by a home win against Alabama (I can say at least 3 bubble teams have their resume headlined by Bama), but past that it's...eh. A home win against Arkansas is decent, but with 2 Q3 losses at home to Minnesota (doesn't seem that bad to me but I guess NET hates Minny) and on a neutral court against Louisville, they seem very bubbly. If they can pull off a win at Kentucky or Texas Tech, that will probably put them on the right side of the bubble.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Arkansas (14-5 (4-3 SEC), NET 55, SOS 110, 1-3 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)</b></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Arkansas would have a pretty solid resume, but they have 2 Q3 losses; losses vs. Vanderbilt and vs. Hofstra are not great. Past that, they do have a very good win at LSU, and decent depth with wins against Kansas State and Cincinnati on neutral courts and a home win against Texas A&M, but those 2 Q3 losses take them closer to the bubble. Their Big 12-SEC challenge game is at home against West Virginia - could be a big help if they win that one.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Texas A&M (14-4 (4-2 SEC), NET 61, SOS 142, 0-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Texas A&M has basically won what they're supposed to and lost what they're supposed to. Wins at home against Arkansas and against Notre Dame on a neutral court are okay, and they don't have a bad loss (worst one would be against TCU on a neutral court or at Arkansas). In their next 3 games, they have road trips to LSU and Tennessee; picking up one of those would be big.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><b>West Coast</b></h2><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Gonzaga, BYU</div><div>Work left to do: St. Mary's, San Francisco</div><div><br /></div><div>Hey, it's another conference that doesn't normally have a section! With 4 teams having good shots, it was warranted here too from my point of view. With the way the WCC is going, I wonder if it'll make itself a staple here (maybe until BYU leaves?). I don't think Santa Clara has much of a chance this year, but I will be keeping an eye on them.</div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><b>Gonzaga (15-2 (4-0 WCC), NET 2, SOS 52, 4-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Gonzaga is doing Gonzaga things this year, just picking up solid wins and not having any bad losses. Wins on a neutral court against Texas Tech and UCLA are very good, and home wins against Texas, BYU and San Francisco are solid. They have two losses, both neutral court losses, to Duke and Alabama. As long as they don't drop any random game, their next real test will be a road trip to BYU. Should be fun!</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>BYU (15-4 (5-1 WCC), NET 25, SOS 43, 4-1 Q1, 4-3 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>BYU is another team with an awkward resume. Wins at San Francisco, vs. Saint Mary's, and on a neutral court against Oregon are all solid Q1 wins, and they also have wins vs. SDSU (Q2) and at Missouri State (which is Q1 somehow?). However, they have some rough losses. A neutral court loss to Vanderbilt is not good, and they also lost on the road to Utah Valley, which was bizarre. Road trips to Santa Clara and Pacific are next up.</div><h3><b>Work left to do</b></h3><div><b>St. Mary's (14-4 (3-1 WCC), NET 28, SOS 72, 2-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I'm not exactly sure what to do with St. Mary's; they could be in should be in, but I've left them in work left to do for now. A neutral court win against Oregon is the top of their resume, with another neutral court win against Notre Dame also being solid, though Q2. Their other Q1 win is a road win against Utah State. They haven't done anything bad; their worst loss is to San Diego State on a neutral court; but, I just think they need more to be in should be in. A road trip to San Francisco could solve that.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>San Francisco (15-4 (3-2), NET 35, SOS 106, 2-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>San Francisco is finally in a good position to make the tournament; it feels like they're just outside the bubble every year. This year, neutral court wins against UAB and Davidson help their case significantly, and their only rough loss is a neutral court loss to Grand Canyon. A home win against Fresno also helps. If they don't pick up a bad loss in conference play, they should be fine, but a win against one of St. Mary's (who they get at home on Thursday), BYU (who they travel to the next Thursday), or even Gonzaga (they've got a home game on Feb. 24, which is three Thursdays after the BYU game) would be insurance for their tourney hopes.</div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Others</h2></div><div>Locks: N/A</div><div>Should be in: Loyola-Chicago</div><div>Work left to do: Murray State, UAB, Belmont, Iona</div><div><br /></div><div>There were quite a few options here. Chattanooga, North Texas, Toledo, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, and Oakland all barely missed out. Keep an eye out for those teams, as they may have at-large chances down the line.</div><div><h3>Should be in</h3><div><b>Loyola-Chicago (13-3 (5-1 MVC), NET 26, SOS 121, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Loyola-Chicago was definitely in before their loss to Missouri State, but they're less sure now. Losing to Missouri State at home is only a Q2 loss, so they should be fine, but it doesn't help them out. A neutral court win against San Francisco is major, but past that their Q2 wins are road wins against Vanderbilt and DePaul, which isn't awe-inspiring. I could've dropped them to work left to do, but I think they should stay in should be in for now. They still have a Q1 game left, a road trip to Missouri State, and this week they travel to Drake, which is a Q2 game.</div><h3>Work left to do</h3><div><b>Murray State (14-2 (7-0 OVC), NET 33, SOS 194, 2-1 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Murray State is actually in a pretty good position for the tournament. They picked up a road win against fellow OVC bubble hopeful Belmont, which is their best win on the year, and they also have a second Q1 win, at Memphis. A home win against Chattanooga also helps. The neutral court loss to East Tennessee State is the one real issue for them, but as long as they don't lose to anyone not named Belmont or Morehead State, they have a decent shot at making it, though a home loss to Morehead would be Q3. The home game against Morehead is on Saturday.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>UAB (14-4 (6-1 C-USA), NET 36, SOS 195, 2-1 Q1, 1-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>UAB is also in a decent position right now, with wins at North Texas and Saint Louis being Q1. That, plus a win at Louisiana Tech, gives them 3 Q1/Q2 wins and road wins against the 2 top contenders in the C-USA. The road loss to Rice is uh...yeah, but outside of that, they look pretty destined for the tournament. They only have 1 Q2 game left, a home game against North Texas, though a road trip to WKU is 3 points off Q2 status.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Belmont (13-5 (4-2 OVC), NET 50, SOS 100, 1-1 Q1, 2-4 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Belmont took a loss at Morehead State on Thursday, which was not helpful for their at-large hopes; they still do have a Q1 win at Saint Louis, but that could've been another Q2 win, or at least not a questionable Q2 loss. A home win against Chattanooga and a neutral court win over Iona are also in Belmont's resume, but they feel a lot more questionable as a bubble team now. They have 1 Q1/Q2 game left: a road trip to Murray State on February 24, and potentially another game against them in the conference tournament.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Iona (16-3 (8-0 MAAC), NET 54, SOS 135, 1-3 Q1, 2-0 Q2)</b></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Iona actually has a solid resume; no bad losses and a neutral court win over Alabama will help quite a bit. Losses to Belmont on a neutral court and Saint Louis aren't great, but they're not bad either, and certainly could be a lot worse. Wins against Liberty on a neutral court and Monmouth on the road are their Q2 wins. They will not have another Q1/Q2 opportunity, unless they face a Monmouth team that sits at or above 100 NET in the conference tournament.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Ohio (13-3 (5-1 MAC), NET 84, SOS 179, 0-2 Q1, 1-1 Q2)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Ohio was borderline on inclusion for me, but the lack of a bad loss and a solid home win against Belmont was enough for me to include them here. The home loss to Toledo feels like it's a huge missed opportunity. Losses at Kentucky and LSU aren't bad, however, and they will get a chance for a Q1 win later on at Toledo. They travel to Buffalo on Friday, which is their only Q2 game left.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, I doubt I'll be getting one up next week, so my next one will probably come in two weeks. See you whenever the next one pops up!</div>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-58939181711354155892022-01-17T07:54:00.004-08:002022-02-03T11:56:24.681-08:00First Bracketology of 2021–22! (Jan. 17)<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. This was made during the morning of Jan 17, before the noon tipoff games.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Auburn, Baylor, Gonzaga, Wisconsin</b></p><p>2 seeds: Kansas, <b>Duke</b>, LSU, <b>Providence</b></p><p>3 seeds: Purdue, Iowa State, <b>Arizona</b>, Texas Tech</p><p>4 seeds: Ohio State, Villanova, Michigan State, Seton Hall</p><p>5 seeds: UConn, Xavier, UCLA, West Virginia</p><p>6 seeds: Alabama, Creighton, Marquette, Illinois</p><p>7 seeds: Kentucky, <b>Houston</b>, Tennessee, <b>Colorado State</b></p><p>8 seeds: BYU, Iowa, Texas, <b>Loyola-Chicago</b></p><p>9 seeds: San Diego State, San Francisco, <b>Davidson</b>, TCU</p><p>10 seeds: <b>Iona</b>, Oklahoma, St. Mary's, Miami (FL)</p><p>11 seeds: Stanford, Oregon, Indiana, Mississippi State</p><p>12 seeds: <i>(Arkansas, Wake Forest)</i>, <b>Murray State</b>, <i>(USC, </i><i>Notre Dame)</i>, <b>Oakland</b></p><p>13 seeds: <b>UAB, Ohio, New Mexico State, Wagner</b></p><p>14 seeds: <b>Chattanooga, UC Irvine, Vermont, Charleston</b></p><p>15 seeds: <b>Navy, Princeton, South Dakota State, Weber State</b></p><p>16 seeds: <b>Liberty, Winthrop, <i>(Texas State, Norfolk State), (Texas Southern, Nicholls)</i></b></p><p><b><i><br /></i></b></p><p>Last four byes: Stanford, Oregon, Indiana, Mississippi State</p><p>Last four in: <i>(Arkansas, Wake Forest), </i><i>(USC, </i><i>Notre Dame)</i></p><p>First four out: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, UCF</p><p>Next four out: Kansas Statem Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Belmont</p><p><br /></p><p>Credit to <a href="https://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and FOX...lol. </p><p><br /></p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big 12: 8</p><p>Big East: 7</p><p>Big Ten: 7</p><p>SEC: 7</p><p>Pac-12: 5</p><p>ACC: 4</p><p>WCC: 4</p><p>MWC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-12598702269304064882021-03-14T12:47:00.002-07:002021-03-14T12:58:24.070-07:00Bracketology FINAL UPDATE: Post A-10 championship<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. This was made after the A-10 championship.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Gonzaga</b>, Baylor, Michigan, <b>Illinois</b><br />2 seeds: Ohio State, <b>Alabama</b>, Iowa, <b>Texas</b><br />3 seeds: Oklahoma State, Kansas, West Virginia, Arkansas<br />4 seeds: Purdue, Florida State, Virginia, <b>Houston</b><br />5 seeds: USC, Villanova, Tennessee, Missouri<br />6 seeds: Clemson, Wisconsin, BYU, Texas Tech<br />7 seeds: Creighton, LSU, Oklahoma, Colorado<br />8 seeds: Florida, Oregon, Rutgers, <b>Georgia Tech</b><br />9 seeds: North Carolina, <b>San Diego State</b>, Virginia Tech, Michigan State<br />10 seeds: Maryland, <b>St. Bonaventure,</b><b> Loyola-Chicago</b>, VCU<br />11 seeds: UConn, Louisville, <i>(Syracuse, UCLA)</i>,<i> </i><i>(Drake, Colorado State)</i><br />12 seeds: <b>Georgetown, Oregon State, Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara</b><br />13 seeds: <b>North Texas, Ohio, Colgate, Morehead State</b><br />14 seeds: <b>UNC-Greensboro, Liberty, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington</b><br />15 seeds: <b>Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Drexel, Oral Roberts</b><br />16 seeds: <b>Hartford Appalachian State, (<i>Iona, Texas Southern</i>)<i>, </i>(<i>Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's</i>)</b></p><p>Last four byes: Maryland, VCU, UConn, Louisville<br />Last four in: <i>(Syracuse, UCLA)</i>,<i> </i><i>(Drake, Colorado State)</i><br />First four out: Wichita State, Utah State, Ole Miss, Saint Louis<br />Next four out: Boise State, Seton Hall, Xavier, Duke</p><p>I'm literally 50/50 between whether the last team in should be Colorado State or Wichita State. I kept it as CSU, but it could easily be WSU.</p><p>Credit to <a href="https://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and FOX...lol. Anyway, you can also see my actual bracket <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h6qAGw8GNQ61RxGYVpF0TcblXYMC8a12rAlLtxsfm7o/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>, if it's updated. The date at the top of the bracket and below the seed list will be accurate.</p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big Ten: 9<br />ACC: 8<br />Big 12: 7<br />SEC: 6<br />Pac-12: 5<br />Big East: 4<br />A10: 2<br />MWC: 2<br />MVC: 2<br />WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5298896625982726862.post-64236147423182372972021-03-13T21:56:00.005-08:002021-03-13T21:56:39.933-08:00Skarmory's Bracketology - 3/14<p>Autobids indicated by <b>Bold text.</b> First four teams are in <i>italics</i>, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. This was made before the UC Santa Barbara-UC Irvine game finished.</p><p>1 seeds: <b>Gonzaga</b>, Baylor, Michigan, <b>Illinois</b><br />2 seeds: Ohio State, Iowa, Kansas, <b>Alabama</b><br />3 seeds: Oklahoma State, West Virginia, <b>Texas</b>, Purdue<br />4 seeds: Arkansas, Florida State, Virginia, <b>Houston</b><br />5 seeds: USC, Villanova, Tennessee, Missouri<br />6 seeds: Clemson, Wisconsin, BYU, Texas Tech<br />7 seeds: Oklahoma, Creighton, Colorado Florida<br />8 seeds: LSU, Oregon, Rutgers, <b>Georgia Tech</b><br />9 seeds: North Carolina, <b>San Diego State</b>, Virginia Tech, Michigan State<br />10 seeds: VCU, Maryland, <b>St. Bonaventure, Loyola-Chicago</b><br />11 seeds: UConn, Louisville, <i>(Syracuse, UCLA)</i>,<i> </i><i>(Drake, Colorado State)</i><br />12 seeds: <b>Georgetown, Oregon State, Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara</b><br />13 seeds: <b>North Texas, Ohio, Colgate, Morehead State</b><br />14 seeds: <b>UNC-Greensboro, Liberty, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington</b><br />15 seeds: <b>Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Drexel, Oral Roberts</b><br />16 seeds: <b>Hartford Appalachian State, (<i>Iona, Texas Southern</i>)<i>, </i>(<i>Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's</i>)</b></p><p>Last four byes: VCU, Maryland, UConn, Louisville<br />Last four in: <i>(Syracuse, UCLA)</i>,<i> </i><i>(Drake, Colorado State)</i><br />First four out: Wichita State, Utah State, Ole Miss, Saint Louis<br />Next four out: Boise State, Seton Hall, Xavier, Duke</p><p>Credit to <a href="https://bracketmatrix.com">bracketmatrix.com</a> for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and FOX...lol. Anyway, you can also see my actual bracket <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h6qAGw8GNQ61RxGYVpF0TcblXYMC8a12rAlLtxsfm7o/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>, if it's updated. The date at the top of the bracket and below the seed list will be accurate.</p><p>Bids by conference:</p><p>Big Ten: 9<br />ACC: 8<br />Big 12: 7<br />SEC: 6<br />Pac-12: 5<br />Big East: 4<br />A10: 2<br />MWC: 2<br />MVC: 2<br />WCC: 2</p>YellowSkarmoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16165333568563071687noreply@blogger.com0