Sunday, March 15, 2020

Skarmory's Bracketology - Final

Autobids indicated by Bold text. First four teams are in italics, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible.

1 seeds: Kansas (MW), Baylor (S), Gonzaga (W), Dayton (E)
2 seeds: San Diego State, CreightonFlorida State, Villanova
3 seeds: Maryland, Michigan State, Kentucky, Seton Hall
4 seeds: Duke, Oregon, Butler, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Auburn, Louisville, Ohio State, Penn State
6 seeds: Iowa, West Virginia, BYU, Michigan
7 seeds: Virginia, Illinois, Houston, St. Mary's
8 seeds: Providence, Marquette, LSU, Arizona
9 seeds: USC, Florida, Oklahoma, Colorado
10 seeds: Indiana, Rutgers, Arizona State, Wichita State
11 seeds: East Tennessee State, (XavierTexas Tech), Utah State, (Richmond, Texas)
12 seeds: Cincinnati, Stephen F. Austin, Yale, Akron
13 seeds: Vermont, New Mexico State, Liberty, Bradley
14 seeds: North Texas, Belmont, Hofstra, Little Rock
15 seeds: Eastern Washington, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Northern Kentucky
16 seeds: Winthrop, Boston University, (Siena, Prairie View A&M), (Robert Morris, NC Central)

Last four byes: Indiana, Rutgers, Arizona State, Wichita State
Last four in: (XavierTexas Tech), (RichmondTexas)
First four out: UCLA, NC State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi State
Next four out: Rhode Island, Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Purdue

Credit to for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and Anyway, you can also see my actual bracket here, if it's updated. The date at the top of the bracket and below the seed list will be accurate.

Bids by conference:

B1G: 10
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
Pac-12: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 4
American: 3
WCC: 3
A10: 2
MWC: 2

Saturday, March 7, 2020

Skarmory's Bracketology - 3/6

Autobids indicated by Bold text. First four teams are in italics, matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Games played after 3/6 weren't taken into account.

1 seeds: Kansas (MW), Baylor (S), Gonzaga (W), San Diego State (E)
2 seeds: Dayton, Florida State, Villanova, Seton Hall
3 seeds: Creighton, Maryland, Duke, Oregon
4 seeds: Kentucky, Michigan State, Louisville, Butler
5 seeds: Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa
6 seeds: Auburn, Michigan, Colorado, BYU
7 seeds: West Virginia, Arizona, Houston, Virginia
8 seeds: Illinois, LSU, Providence, Marquette
9 seeds: St. Mary's, Indiana, USC, Oklahoma
10 seeds: Xavier, Florida, Arizona State, Rutgers
11 seeds: UCLA, Wichita State, (Texas TechStanford), (TexasRichmond)
12 seeds: East Tennessee State, Stephen F. Austin, Yale, Liberty
13 seeds: Akron, Vermont, North Texas, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Bradley, Hofstra, Texas State, Eastern Washington
15 seeds: North Dakota State, Wright State, Belmont, UC Irvine
16 seeds: Colgate, Winthrop, (Siena, St. Francis (PA)), (Prairie View A&M, NC Central)

Last four byes: Arizona State, Rutgers, Wichita State, Texas Tech
Last four in: (Texas TechStanford), (Texas, Richmond)
First four out: Purdue, Cincinnati, NC State, Northern Iowa
Next four out: St. Louis, Utah State, Arkansas, Memphis

Credit to for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and Anyway, you can also see my actual bracket here, if it's updated. The date at the top of the bracket and below the seed list will be accurate.

Bids by conference:
B1G: 10
Big East: 7
Pac-12: 7
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
SEC: 4
WCC: 3
American: 2
A10: 2

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Skarmory's Bracketology - 3/4

Autobids indicated by Bold text. First four teams are in italics, matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Games played after 3/3 weren't taken into account.

1 seeds: Kansas (MW), Baylor (S), Gonzaga (W), San Diego State (E)
2 seeds: Dayton, Seton Hall, Creighton, Florida State
3 seeds: Maryland, Villanova, Kentucky, Duke
4 seeds: Oregon, Michigan State, Auburn, Louisville
5 seeds: Penn State, Butler, Wisconsin, Ohio State
6 seeds: Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, BYU
7 seeds: Marquette, West Virginia, Illinois, Virginia
8 seeds: Arizona State, Arizona, Houston, LSU
9 seeds: St. Mary's, Oklahoma, Providence, Florida
10 seeds: USC, Wichita State, Indiana, Xavier
11 seeds: UCLA, Rutgers, Texas Tech, TexasStanfordEast Tennessee State*
12 seeds: NC State*Northern Iowa, Stephen F. Austin, Yale
13 seeds: Vermont, Liberty, North Texas, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Akron, Arkansas-Little Rock, Eastern Washington, Belmont
15 seeds: North Dakota State, Colgate, Hofstra, Wright State
16 seeds: UC Irvine, Radford, (St. Francis (PA), Prairie View A&M), (Siena, North Carolina A&T)

Last four byes: Indiana, Xavier, UCLA, Rutgers
Last four in: Texas Tech, Texas, Stanford, NC State
First four out: Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Richmond, Mississippi State
Next four out: Utah State, South Carolina, Purdue, Arkansas

Note: ETSU will be a 12 seed in the bracket while NC State will be an 11 seed, because there's 3 first four teams on the 11 line and 1 on the 12, so NC State moves up to counter that for the bracket. This doesn't affect the true seed line though, which has ETSU as an 11 and NC State as a 12.

Credit to for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and Anyway, you can also see my actual bracket here, if it's updated. The date at the top of the bracket and below the seed list will be accurate.

Bids by conference:

B1G: 10
Big East: 7
Pac-12: 7
Big 12: 6
ACC: 5
SEC: 4
WCC: 3
American: 2

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Skarmory's Bracketology - 2/29

Autobids indicated by Bold text. First four teams are in italics, matchups in (parenthesis) if posible. Games played after 2/28 weren't taken into account.

1 seeds: Kansas (MW), Baylor (S), Gonzaga (W), San Diego State (E)
2 seeds: Dayton, Maryland, Creighton, Florida State
3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, Duke, Penn State
4 seeds: Oregon, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan State
5 seeds: Auburn, Michigan, Butler, Colorado
6 seeds: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, West Virginia
7 seeds: Marquette, Illinois, Arizona, BYU
8 seeds: Arizona State, LSU, Houston, Saint Mary's
9 seeds: Texas Tech, Virginia, Indiana, Florida
10 seeds: Xavier, Providence, Rutgers, USC
11 seeds: Oklahoma, Wichita State, Rhode Island*, East Tennessee State
12 seeds: Northern Iowa*, UCLA, (Stanford, Richmond), Liberty, Stephen F. Austin
13 seeds: Vermont, Yale, New Mexico State, Bowling Green
14 seeds: North Texas, Hofstra, Arkansas-Little Rock, Eastern Washington
15 seeds: Colgate, Wright State, UC Irvine, Belmont
16 seeds: Radford, South Dakota State, St. Francis (PA), Prairie View A&M, Siena, North Carolina A&T

Last four byes: Rutgers, USC, Oklahoma, Wichita State
Last four in: (Rhode Island, UCLA), (Stanford, Richmond)
First four out: Utah State, NC State, Purdue, Georgetown
Next four out: Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Memphis, Arkansas

*Rhode Island is one of the last four in, therefore they're in the play-in games, as they'll play against UCLA on the 12 line in the bracket. However, the true seed line has them as an 11. Northern Iowa would replace Rhode Island on the 11 line in the bracket, but they're a 12 on the true seed line.

Credit to bracketmatrix for compiling all the brackets in the bracket project, including my own! It's an honor to be on the big stage with names like ESPN and Anyway, you can also see my actual bracket here, if it's updated. The date at the top of the bracket and below the seed list will be accurate.

Bids by conference:
B1G: 10
Big East: 7
Pac-12: 7
Big 12: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 4
A10: 3
WCC: 3
American: 2

Monday, February 24, 2020

Skarmory's Bracketology - 2/24

1 seeds: Kansas (MW), Baylor (S), Gonzaga (W), Dayton (E)
2 seeds: San Diego State, Duke, Creighton, Maryland
3 seeds: Florida State, Seton Hall, Villanova, Louisville
4 seeds: Penn State, Auburn, Oregon, Butler
5 seeds: Kentucky, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State
6 seeds: Iowa, Marquette, West Virginia, Colorado
7 seeds: Wisconsin, Arizona, BYU, Texas Tech
8 seeds: LSU, Illinois, Arizona State, Florida
9 seeds: Houston, Xavier, Indiana, Rutgers
10 seeds: Oklahoma, St. Mary's, Virginia, NC State
11 seeds: Providence, USC, (Rhode Island, Wichita State), Northern Iowa
12 seeds: East Tennessee State, (Richmond, Georgetown), Liberty, Stephen F. Austin
13 seeds: Yale, Vermont, Akron, North Texas
14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Hofstra, Arkansas-Little Rock
15 seeds: Radford, Belmont, UC Irvine, Wright State
16 seeds: South Dakota State, Montana, (Siena, St. Francis (PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State)

Last four byes: Virginia, NC State, Providence, USC

Last four in: Rhode Island, Wichita State, Richmond, Georgetown

First four out: UCLA, Stanford, South Carolina, Purdue

Next four out: Cincinnati, Alabama, Memphis, Utah State Bracket + seed list per region.

This bracket is part of the bracketmatrix! Visit!

Thursday, February 6, 2020

Skarmory's Bubble Watch - 2/4

Everything is updated for games on February 3rd. Records do not include non-D1 games. All data taken from Let me know if you enjoyed!

Lock means no chance to miss the tournament, if there's any way it's possible that I see I won't lock teams.

The return of my bubble watch for 2019-20 is here! Let's get started, no more fuss!


Locks: N/A

Should be in: Wichita State, Houston

Work left to do: Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulsa

SMU needs to do more before I start considering them as a bubble team. AAC has certainly been an interesting conference this year all around.



Should be in

Houston (17-5 (7-2), NET 34, SOS 110, 2-4 Q1, 4-0 Q2, Q3 loss)

Houston is currently the highest ranked AAC team by NET, which is interesting. They hold 2 Q1 wins, @ Wichita State and @ South Carolina, and also have 4 Q2 wins. They do have a Q3 loss, home to Oklahoma State, but they're still pretty solidly in the tourney for now. Their next 2 games are at home, hosting Tulane and the other major AAC team, Wichita State.

Wichita State (17-4 (5-3), NET 38, SOS 91, 0-2 Q1, 7-2 Q2)

Wichita State may not have a Q1 win, but they do have 7 Q2 wins which is pretty good. They've bounced back from last year's NCAA tourney miss, and are pretty likely to make it this year. They have no bad loss, all of them being in Q1 & Q2. Two key games are next, home against Cincinnati and a trip to Houston.

Work left to do

Cincinnati (14-7 (7-2), NET 46, SOS 28, 0-4 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 3 Q3 losses)

I am thoroughly confused by Cinci's resume. Winless in Q1, undefeated in Q2 but 3 Q3 losses? Either way, that 6-0 Q2 mark is solid, but those Q3 losses raise an eyebrow. A home loss to Colgate, neutral court loss to Bowling Green and road loss to Tulane are the three, and I don't think any of them are going to move to Q2 any time soon. They did just pick up their best win of the season, a home victory against Houston, and have more opportunities coming up though. Next two games are road games against Wichita State and Connecticut, Q1 and Q2 games respectively.

Memphis (16-5 (5-3), NET 50, SOS 71, 1-3 Q1, 4-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

Memphis is an interesting bubble case. They've very much fallen off since they were ranked, as there have been players leaving/getting injured, but they have won 2 in a row now. Still, they're on the bubble. They host Temple and South Florida next.

Tulsa (15-6 (7-1), NET 61, SOS 129, 0-2 Q1, 4-2 Q2, Q3 loss, Q4 loss)

Tulsa is the outright leader of the AAC right now. Probably not what you expected at the start of the year. They do have 2 losses worse than Q2, including a Q4 loss to Arkansas State at home, but they also hold wins over Houston, Wichita State and Memphis. Definitely a bubble team for now.


Locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida State

Should be in: N/A

Work left to do: Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State

The top 3 of Duke, Louisville and FSU are all safe enough to the point where I can lock them. The rest of the ACC bubble situation is a mess. There are 6 teams ranked between 57 and 75 in NET. This was a complete mess, trying to determine who to put in and who to leave out.


Duke (18-3 (8-2), NET 6, SOS 7, 5-1 Q1, 3-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

Louisville (19-3 (8-1), NET 7, SOS 22, 4-3 Q1, 3-0 Q2)

Florida State (19-3 (9-2), NET 15, SOS 45, 4-3 Q1, 5-0 Q2)

Should be in


Work left to do

Virginia (14-6 (6-4), NET 57, SOS 65, 2-2 Q1, 4-3 Q2, Q3 loss)

Virginia is an interesting team this season. Coming off a national championship, their best win is home against FSU, and they have home losses to 3 teams in the 60s and 70s. Not ideal. They're definitely looking better than they were earlier, but still on the bubble. Next up, they host Clemson, followed by a trip to Louisville which could be a great win.

Virginia Tech (14-8 (5-6), NET 62, SOS 140, 2-5 Q1, 3-2 Q2, Q3 loss)

VT is 1-4 in their last 5. That's 1 way to make it to being a more questionable bubble case. They have a neutral court win against MSU which is holding strong, but that's 1 of only 2 Q1 wins, and their other one is @ Syracuse. A Q3 loss @ BC isn't good, and they don't have anything too special outside that MSU win. Next up is a trip to GT, followed by hosting BC; breaking the 3 game losing streak they have is key here, as a loss to either of them would be bad.

NC State (14-8 (5-6), NET 69, SOS 77, 2-4 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)

NC State is also on a 3 game losing streak, like VT. A home loss to UNC was one of those, which is another Q3 loss, to add to them already having a home loss to GT. NC State doesn't really have that standout win that VT has either. NC State has a 3 game road trip coming up, going to Miami, Syracuse and BC. Pretty crucial stretch for NC State there.

Big 12

Locks: Baylor, Kansas

Should be in: West Virginia

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma

Baylor and Kansas are locked, just because their resumes are so good.


Baylor (20-1 (9-0), NET 2, SOS 93, 7-0 Q1, 6-1 Q2)

Kansas (18-3 (8-1), NET 4, SOS 1, 9-3 Q1, 5-0 Q2)

Should be in

West Virginia (17-4 (5-3), NET 9, SOS 2, 5-2 Q1, 4-2 Q2)

I don't quite feel comfortable locking WVU just yet. 1 more win would do the trick however. Overall a solid resume, even if they don't have a standout best win; their 2 Q2 losses are 1 and 2 spots away from being Q1, somehow. ISU is up next; a win seals things.

Work left to do

Texas Tech (13-8 (4-4), NET 29, SOS 58, 2-8 Q1, 2-0 Q2)

Last year's second place team in the NCAA Tournament already has broken their loss total from the entirety of last season. All 8 losses are Q1, so they're not bad, but a grand total of 4 Q1 and Q2 wins isn't ideal. Coming so close to a win at Kansas has gotta hurt however. Next up, they host Oklahoma, before journeying out to Austin to play Texas.

Oklahoma (14-7 (3-4), NET 49, SOS 52, 2-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2)

Oklahoma looks to be on the bubble as of right now, posting a 14-7 record. NET places them in 49th, even though the stats on paper appear better than TTU who's ranked 29th. Anyway, they have a 2-6 Q1 & 5-1 Q2 record. Next up is a road trip to TTU, followed by hosting WVU; winning one of those two would definitely help out the Sooners' resume.

Texas (14-8 (4-5), NET 60, SOS 25, 2-7 Q1, 2-1 Q2)

Having 2 halftime leads against Kansas and blowing both of them has gotta hurt for Texas. Even winning just 1 of those would've been a huge help to Texas' resume. Instead, they don't have a standout win and sit in a spot with only 2 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins, even without a bad loss. They need to pick up something soon, and home games against TTU and Baylor are the opportunities they need.

Big East

Locks: N/A

Should be in: Butler, Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Marquette

Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown

The top 3 Big East teams somehow managed to all lose at home. Wow. For now, nobody's locked yet. I'll be keeping my eye on this conference, as the teams not mentioned could pull off a run and make it onto the bubble, but none of DePaul, Providence and St. John's look impressive enough yet to warrant being put on.



Should be in

Butler (17-5 (5-4), NET 12, SOS 55, 6-4 Q1, 5-1 Q2)

I need 1 more win from Butler to feel comfortable locking them. Next game is at home against Villanova, followed by a trip to Marquette. Butler has a really solid resume, just not quite enough yet. If they had managed to beat Providence at home, they would already be locked.

Villanova (17-4 (7-2), NET 13, SOS 10, 5-4 Q1, 4-0 Q2)

Villanova is pretty similar to Butler, where I need one more win to feel comfortable locking them. Whoever wins their game is definitely a lock. After Nova goes to Butler, Nova hosts Seton Hall. Same thing as Butler, not quite enough yet. A home win against Creighton would've locked them.

Creighton (16-5 (6-3), NET 14, SOS 33, 6-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)

Creighton got a huge win this past week, picking up a road win against Villanova. That's a great win, and by far the best one they have this season. Gives them a nice top win to cap off the resume, and now they're pretty close to being locked, a couple more wins will do it. A road trip to Providence is next, followed by hosting St. John's. Win both, and they're probably a lock.

Seton Hall (16-5 (8-1), NET 16, SOS 34, 6-4 Q1, 5-1 Q2)

Seton Hall was one of the victims of the Big East home teams losing this week, dropping a home game to Xavier. That definitely leaves them unlocked, and a 16 win team has never made the tournament so I'm not locking them yet. A win at either Georgetown or Villanova would do it.

Marquette (16-6 (6-4), NET 25, SOS 19, 4-5 Q1, 5-1 Q2)

A home win against Villanova is the best Marquette's resume has to offer, but an additional 3 Q1 and 5 Q2 wins is nothing to scoff at. Marquette definitely would be in the tournament if it was now, and it shouldn't be close. They were the one Big East home team not to lose this weekend, after escaping DePaul. Next up, they host Butler, followed by a trip to Villanova.

Work left to do

Xavier (14-8 (3-6), NET 47, SOS 27, 2-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2)

Xavier just pulled off a great win at Seton Hall, putting them squarely on the bubble. That's the first real solid win they have, with their other Q1 win being a road win at TCU. Overall, they're pretty much on the bubble right now, where every result matters. Next up is a trip to DePaul, followed by hosting Providence.

Georgetown (13-9 (3-6), NET 48, SOS 14, 2-8 Q1, 4-1 Q2)

The best thing Georgetown has for them is the strength of schedule. A top 10 SOS, and top 50 non-con SOS should appeal to the committee, but that record...yeesh. They need to get something going soon. The key win they have is a home victory against Creighton. A win @ St. John's stopped a 3 game losing streak, but they're on the wrong side of the bubble for now I'd have to think. Home games against Seton Hall and DePaul are next.

Big Ten

Locks: N/A

Should be in: Michigan State, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin

Work left to do: Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana

The B1G has an impressive amount of depth, with 12 possible tourney teams this season. In a 14 team conference, that's incredible. 9 of them are in should be in.



Should be in

Michigan State (16-6 (8-3), NET 10, SOS 67, 4-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2)

MSU is certainly interesting. They have 3 losses in conference play, at both the B1G schools in Indiana and @ Wisconsin, but they are still tied for the conference lead with Illinois (!). MSU is only 3-3 on the road this season, with 1 great one early in the season at Seton Hall but since then they've only beaten Minnesota by more than 5, and they have 3 losses on the road in B1G play, and a 5 point win @ Northwestern. Anyway, they host PSU next, then travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan.

Maryland (17-4 (7-3), NET 11, SOS 17, 5-4 Q1, 4-0 Q2)

Maryland would be locked if they didn't have home games against Nebraska and Northwestern left on their schedule. Those two would be Q3 losses even on the road, and Nebraska falls into Q4 at home as of this moment. Either way, Maryland's resume is really solid, with 5 Q1 wins and 4 more in Q2, and no bad losses. A home game against Rutgers is up next, followed by a trip to Illinois.

Ohio State (14-7 (4-6), NET 20, SOS 50, 3-5 Q1, 3-2 Q2)

Ohio State pulled their first win in 2020 against teams not named Nebraska or Northwestern with a home win against Indiana. NET still likes OSU, having them top 20. Next up are trips to Michigan and Wisconsin, where we can see if OSU can keep up the 2 game win streak they have now.

Iowa (16-6 (7-4), NET 21, SOS 75, 7-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

Iowa looks pretty good this season, with 7 Q1 wins and 3 more in Q2, and with only a single Q3 loss (@ Nebraska). Definitely on a good track for the tourney coming off a win against Illinois. The top win Iowa has is a home win against Maryland. They host Nebraska next, followed by a trip to Indiana.

Penn State (16-5 (6-4), NET 24, SOS 122, 5-3 Q1, 4-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

The B1G has an incredible amount of teams in should be in, including Penn State; having bounced back from a 3 game losing streak pulling off 4 wins in a row. They may have a sub 100 SOS, but they still have a bunch of good wins, and the 1 Q3 loss is at a neutral court to Ole Miss. Up next, they take a trip to Michigan State, before hosting Minnesota.

Rutgers (15-6 (7-4), NET 28, SOS 38, 2-5 Q1, 4-0 Q2, Q3 loss)

Rutgers is actually good in a sport for once. Holding a 15-6 record, Rutgers looks to be in a solid position to make the tourney. Their numbers aren't as good as I originally thought they were but it's not like they're bad. 15-6 record is still solid, especially in this B1G, so they are in should be in. Next up is a trip to Maryland, followed by hosting Northwestern.

Illinois (15-6 (8-3), NET 30, SOS 75, 4-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

Illinois is tied for first in the B1G. Let that sink in for a second. With such a good conference, that's impressive that a team that won 12 games total last year is up there, tied with MSU. Overall, a tourney appearance seems pretty likely, and they've broken the top 30 in NET. They may not have a clear top win, but they still look solid. They did just have their 7 game win streak snapped in Iowa, but they still have a gauntlet in their next 4 games of home games against Maryland and MSU, and road against Rutgers and Penn State. That stretch will be very interesting for Illinois, see how they do there.

Michigan (13-8 (4-6), NET 31, SOS 41, 4-8 Q1, 3-0 Q2)

Michigan has seemingly pulled out of their collapse, at least for now, with a win against Rutgers in MSG. Still, they're certainly a far cry from the top 5 ranking Michigan had at points this season. An 18 point neutral court win being Gonzaga's only loss is spectacular still, and all their losses are Q1, but still the fact that they started off the new year 1-5 isn't a great look. They have a two game home stretch against OSU and MSU next.

Wisconsin (13-9 (6-5), NET 32, SOS 3, 6-7 Q1, 1-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

Wisconsin is an interesting team. Nearly top 30 in NET, yet 13-9. Sorta symbolic of this B1G,
honestly. Anyway, they have 6 Q1 wins, with the latest being a home win against MSU, and a Q2 win; I think after that MSU win, they're far enough off the bubble where they can be in should be in, even with a loss to New Mexico on a neutral court leaving them with a Q3 loss. Up next is a trip to Minnesota, then they come back home to host OSU.

Work left to do

Purdue (12-10 (5-6), NET 39, SOS 51, 2-8 Q1, 3-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

Purdue has somehow managed to be on the bubble at only two games above .500, and they aren't even the closest B1G team to .500 on the bubble. Either way, they only have 5 combined Q1/Q2 wins, which definitely could be better but they do have a home win against MSU by *29*. They do have a Q3 loss, @ Nebraska, however. After barely escaping a trip to Northwestern, they get a home game against Iowa, followed by a trip to rival Indiana.

Minnesota (11-10 (5-6), NET 45, SOS 13, 3-8 Q1, 2-2 Q2)

Minnesota holds a sweep over Ohio State, accounting for 2 of their 3 Q1 wins, having also beaten PSU at home for the other one. They do have 5 Q1/Q2 wins combined, which is low, but no losses outside of Q2. At 11-10, they're the B1G team that's closer to .500 on the bubble than Purdue, at 1 game over .500. Their next game is playing host to Wisconsin, followed by a trip to PSU.

Indiana (15-7 (5-6), NET 51, SOS 37, 3-6 Q1, 2-1 Q2)

I don't really know what to do with Indiana, as they have records that are pretty similar to OSU's, but their NET is much lower and they are on a 3 game losing streak now. Either way, they have a two game home stand against Purdue and Iowa next, which could be key for tourney hopes.


Locks: N/A

Should be in: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, USC

Work left to do: Stanford, Arizona State

NET is super inconsistent with the Pac-12, and I'm not sure why.



Should be in

Arizona (15-6 (5-3), NET 8, SOS 6, 3-4 Q1, 2-2 Q2)

NET loves Arizona for...some reason I don't understand. They're 5-6 in the top 2 quadrants, which is not what I'd expect out of a top 10 team. Either way, they are in the field as of right now, see should be in categorization; they host USC & UCLA next.

Colorado (17-5 (6-3), NET 17, SOS 32, 4-2 Q1, 4-2 Q2, Q3 loss)

Colorado all things considered has a pretty solid resume. 4 Q1 wins is good, including a neutral court victory over Dayton and a home win against Oregon, and 4 Q2 is good too. Sure, they have a Q3 loss at home to Oregon State, but they still should be in the tournament pretty clearly at this point. Next up are home games against Cal and Stanford.

Oregon (18-5 (7-3), NET 19, SOS 8, 5-3 Q1, 4-2 Q2)

Oregon is very close to being a lock, but I just can't put them there quite yet with the fact that the Pac-12 isn't all that strong. Very good resume, but being too careful isn't exactly a thing with locks. Next up is a trip to rival Oregon State, followed by hosting Colorado. Need 1 more win for me to be comfortable enough to lock them.

USC (17-5 (6-3), NET 45, SOS 57, 3-4 Q1, 4-0 Q2, Q3 loss)

USC looks to be pretty much in the field for now, as even though they have a Q3 loss at home to Temple, they still have 3 Q1 wins and 4 Q2 wins. They hold a neutral court win over LSU and a home win against Stanford in the Q1 camp, along with a road win against TCU. A two game road trip to the Arizona schools is up next.

Work left to do

Stanford (16-5 (5-3), NET 23, SOS 105, 2-3 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)

NET likes Stanford for some reason. Only 2 Q1 wins, home against Oregon being the main one, and only 2 Q2 wins isn't as good as it should be for them to not be in work left to do, especially with 2 Q3 losses. A home loss to Oregon State and road to Cal aren't as bad as they could be for Q3 losses, but that's still not good. Coming off the Oregon win, they look to beat Utah and Colorado in the 2 game road trip they have next.

Arizona State (13-8 (3-4), NET 58, SOS 30, 2-6 Q1, 3-2 Q2)

I feel like ASU at least has a small bubble chance, enough to put them on for now after the road win against Washington. They recently picked up their 2 Q1 wins, at home against Arizona and @ Washington, but they only have 3 Q2 wins. No Q3 losses is nice, but they definitely have more work left to do than a bunch of their fellow teams in this category. Their first opportunities are home games against UCLA and USC.


Locks: N/A

Should be in: Auburn, LSU, Kentucky, Arkansas

Work left to do: Mississippi State, Alabama, Florida



Should be in

Auburn (19-2 (6-2), NET 18, SOS 46, 2-2 Q1, 7-0 Q2)

Auburn is borderline for me, but 19 wins is pretty good. However, if they lose out, they're 2-6 Q1, 7-4 Q2 with 2 Q3 losses, and another loss in the CT, probably a Q2 loss. I'm not quite ready to lock up the Tigers yet, as at that point they're also 6-12 in conference play. One more win and they're a lock, but if I lock them up and they lose 11 in a row and miss the tourney, I'm not going to be happy about that. Better to play locks safe than sorry, imo. This is only a relatively meaningless internet post anyway and is my opinion. Next 2 games are @ Arkansas and vs. LSU.

LSU (17-4 (8-0), NET 22, SOS 16, 3-2 Q1, 6-2 Q2)

LSU has been flying somewhat under the radar this season, and they only get the other 2 major teams in the SEC once this season. At 8-0 in conference play, they could definitely go into the CT as the one seed, especially if they beat either Auburn on the road or Kentucky at home. They started the year ranked, fell out, and only recently jumped back in the rankings. Up next is a two game road trip to Vandy and the aforementioned Auburn.

Kentucky (16-5 (6-2), NET 27, SOS 73, 4-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2, Q4 loss)

Kentucky certainly has been an interesting team this season. They've been inconsistent, at times looking really good (see: wins over Louisville & MSU) and at others...not so much (see: losses to SCar, Utah and Evansville). Overall, they're still a tourney team at this point, with ups and downs across their resume. They play host to MSST and travel to Tennessee next.

Arkansas (16-5 (4-4), NET 35, SOS 31, 2-3 Q1, 4-2 Q2)

Arkansas has also flown under the radar some this season, though they have been losing more recently. They still hold a really good 16-5 record, even if they're 2-3 in their last 5. Next up, they host Auburn and go to Mizzou.

Work left to do

Mississippi State (14-7 (5-3), NET 37, SOS 26, 1-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)

MSST has won 5 out of their last 6, with the 1 loss being by 1 at Oklahoma. After an 0-3 start to SEC play, pulling off 5 straight SEC wins is really helpful. They only have 1 Q1 win, a road victory at Florida, and only 3 Q2 wins. Next up is a trip to Kentucky, followed by a home game against Vandy.

Alabama (12-9 (4-4), NET 41, SOS 13, 1-5 Q1, 2-3 Q2, Q3 loss)

Alabama's records really don't look too good. With negative Q1 and Q2 records, and a total of 3 Q1/Q2 wins, and a Q3 loss, things aren't looking up; 12-9 isn't a good overall record either. They've managed to stay on the bubble though. Their best win this season is a home win to knock Auburn from the ranks of the unbeatens. Anyway, up next they host Tennessee, followed by a two game road trip to UGA and Auburn.

Florida (13-8 (5-3), NET 42, SOS 35, 3-4 Q1, 2-4 Q2)

Florida has played 5 neutral site games this season. Aside from that random, likely useless tidbit, they have negative records in both Q1 and Q2, but the records are at least decent. The best win Florida boasts is also a home win against Auburn, one of their 3 Q1 wins. Up next, they host UGA and go to Ole Miss.

Other conferences

Locks: N/A

Should be in: San Diego State, Gonzaga, Dayton

Work left to do: BYU, St. Mary's, VCU, Rhode Island, Northern Iowa, ETSU, Utah State



Should be in

San Diego State (22-0 (12-0 MW), NET 1, SOS 123, 4-0 Q1, 5-0 Q2)

I need 1 more win from SDSU to feel comfortable locking them up. They play @ Air Force next. 4/6 remaining games are Q3, and CT game likely would be too, so I don't feel confident with a team with 5 Q3 losses making the tourney.

Gonzaga (23-1 (9-0 WCC), NET 3, SOS 157, 4-1 Q1, 2-0 Q2)

Gonzaga is in the same boat as SDSU. Next game is home against Loyola Marymount, which is Q4. Get that out of the way, and you're locked. Gonzaga's SOS is actually much lower than I was expecting from Gonzaga, considering how they schedule OOC and the fact that the WCC is at least decent. An injury to Killian Tillie had them on the ropes playing at San Francisco recently.

Dayton (20-2 (9-0 A10), NET 5, SOS 42, 3-2 Q1, 4-0 Q2)

Toppin is really good. He's been the driving force behind this Dayton team, which is one of 3 teams in this others section in the NET **Top 5**. Impressive. Anyway, Dayton is looking solid this season, and in both of their losses they went to overtime (6 pt loss to Kansas, 2 pt loss to Colorado, both in OT). Next up is a home game against St. Louis, who they beat in OT on the road, followed by hosting Rhode Island.

Work left to do

BYU (16-7 (6-3 WCC), NET 26, SOS 21, 1-4 Q1, 4-3 Q2)

I'm not sure what to think of BYU, honestly. Not a team I've paid much attention to. Their 1 Q1 win is @ Houston, and they do have 4 Q2 wins, but also 3 Q2 losses to teams ranked below 80 by NET. They did just beat St. Mary's, which should help. Coming up next is a trip to Portland, followed by hosting San Francisco.

St. Mary's (18-5 (6-3 WCC), NET 33, SOS 92, 2-2 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)

St. Mary's has 3 losses to teams ranked 100 and below, of which 2 were at home. Not great. They do hold 2 Q1 wins, home against BYU and a neutral court win against Wisconsin. Overall, another team I'm not quite sure what to think of. Next up, they go to San Diego before returning home for the likely biggest game of their season, hosting Gonzaga.

VCU (16-6 (6-3 A10), NET 36, SOS 88, 1-4 Q1, 2-2 Q2)

VCU only holds a combined 3 Q1 & Q2 wins, with only 1 of those being Q1 (home victory over LSU). That's not the most encouraging. They still certainly have opportunities, but they did just get swept by Rhode Island. Next up are home games against Davidson and George Mason.

Rhode Island (16-5 (8-1 A10), NET 40, SOS 29, 1-3 Q1, 5-1 Q2, Q3 loss)

Speaking of Rhode Island, there they are! They hold a sweep over VCU, with the road win being their sole Q1 win, but they have 5 Q2 wins. At the least, that's decent depth. They do have an awful loss to Brown (14 spots from Q4, road loss), but they still have a solid resume. They host UMass next, followed by going to George Washington.

Northern Iowa (17-3 (8-2 MVC), NET 43, SOS 104, 1-1 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)

Two losses in MVC play is not ideal, especially in a weaker MVC like this one. The best thing UNI has on their resume is actually a pretty good road win at Colorado. After that...their next best win is neutral court against South Carolina. UNI's pretty much going to need to keep winning if they want an at-large, or they could just win their CT. They do have 2 Q2 opportunities left on their schedule, but for now they take trips to Evansville (who has collapsed completely) and Valparaiso next.

East Tennessee State (16-4 (8-2 SoCon), NET 53, SOS 97, 2-1 Q1, 2-1 Q2, Q3 loss, Q4 loss)

Pretty similar story to UNI for ETSU, gotta keep winning. A home loss to Mercer is pretty bad, though their Q3 loss @ NDSU is on the border between Q2 and Q3. ETSU did beat LSU on the road, and swept UNCG for their other Q1 and a Q2 win. Gotta keep winning though, with only 1 Q2 opportunity left. Next up are trips to Chattanooga and Mercer.

Utah State (15-7 (6-5 MWC), NET 55, SOS 102, 2-4 Q1, 1-2 Q2, Q3 loss)

USU is definitely not in as good of a position to make the tourney as last year. They're only 2-4 in Q1, 1-2 in Q2 so far, and they have 7 losses overall, including 5 in conference. A Q3 loss @ Air Force isn't ideal either. LSU has provided 3 of the teams in this category with their best win, as USU has a neutral court victory over them, but USU only has 2 more Q2 opportunities left. Next up is a 2 game home stretch against UNLV and Boise State.