Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Skarmory's Bubble Watch – Semi-Live updates

Welcome back to my bubble watch! I will be updating each section somewhat live, as games progress through the next week – building a full watch every week is somewhat hard, so I've opted for this instead, and sections may not be up to date (I've included a date on each of them). Data is from warrennolan.com, and non-D1 wins are not counted in records.

Prefaces for now: I am currently in Mexico; also have IVs stuck in my arm sometimes. However, the show must go on; see ya either way! Will be here through the end of the season, but I should be fine on updating this. I also have a bracketology up here, but it does not affect the actual placements of teams on this bubble watch – it's more to show where I mark teams from my own view.

See y'all next year! Had fun doing this, want to do it again next year, excited to see how my predictions turn out.

American


Locks: Houston, Memphis
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: SMU

Memphis' win over SMU in the semifinals was enough to lock them up. That leaves one question mark: SMU. The Mustangs will be right on the bubble heading into the selection show – we'll see where they end up, but they have nothing they can do any more. Houston gets a chance for revenge against Memphis in the conference championship game – the Tigers swept the Cougars in the regular season.

Locks


Houston (29-5 (15-3 AAC), NET 3, SOS 102, 1-4 Q1, 10-1 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

Memphis (21-10 (13-5 AAC), NET 31, SOS 77, 5-4 Q1, 3-4 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Work left to do


SMU (23-8 (13-4 AAC), NET 44, SOS 105, 2-2 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

SMU is right on the bubble, and they have nothing more they can do after losing in the semifinals to Memphis. The Houston win and regular season sweep of Memphis are the main points of their resume; the main question will be – is that enough? They do have three more Q2 wins – vs. Dayton, @ Tulane, and vs. Vanderbilt – but losses to Missouri and Loyola Marymount hang a dark cloud over the Mustangs' tournament resume.

Atlantic 10


Autobid: Richmond
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Davidson
Work left to do: VCU, Dayton

Well, I don't think either Dayton or VCU have any good at-large chances, so we're down to just Davidson for an at-large. I guess the committee could put in either Dayton or VCU, but I don't think it's likely at all. Richmond stole a bid, which heavily hurts Dayton and VCU's chances, and Davidson seems pretty safe as an at-large.

Autobid


Richmond (23-12 (10-8 A10), NET 82, SOS 110, 1-2 Q1, 6-9 Q2, 1 Q4 loss) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

Should be in


Davidson (26-6 (15-3 A10), NET 38, SOS 135, 2-2 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Davidson should be okay, despite Richmond stealing the A10 bid, but I'm not 100% sure, especially since most brackets haven't been updated yet. The marquee win on their resume is against Alabama on a neutral court early, and they do have an additional Q1 win at VCU, but a loss at Rhode Island is Q3 and they do have 3 Q2 losses as well. Like I said, they should be fine, but I just don't feel comfortable immediately locking them.

Work left to do


VCU (21-9 (14-4 A10), NET 56, SOS 95, 3-3 Q1, 3-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Well, VCU is in bad position after a loss to Richmond in the conference tournament. They sit at 21-9, but with a 3-3 Q1 record and 3-5 Q2 record, they probably don't have the wins required to make up for their 6 Q2/Q3 losses. Wins at Davidson, Dayton and Vanderbilt are Q1, but after that, it falls off, and even Vanderbilt is somewhat iffy. A loss at home to Wagner is Q3, and losses vs. Chattanooga and against Richmond in the conference tournament are not ideal either. They appear to be on the wrong side of the bubble now, but I haven't dropped them from the watch.

Dayton (23-10 (14-4 A10), NET 58, SOS 117, 3-2 Q1, 5-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 3 Q4 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

I don't think Dayton has any at-large chance, but with how the bubble has been this year, I feel like they should remain in the off chance the committee weighs their early season Q4 losses less strongly. Losses at home to UMass-Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay are awful, but were in November, and since then, they've been a tournament team – one real rough loss at La Salle, but wins over Kansas and Miami on neutral courts, a 30 point win at VCU, and home wins against Davidson and Virginia Tech are all very good. A loss against Richmond in the conference tournament semifinals, however, hurts their at-large chances; it's probably enough to where they have no more at-large chance, but I've kept them on here as well.

ACC


Locks: Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Should be in: Miami (FL)
Work left to do: Wake Forest, Notre Dame

Congratulations to Virginia Tech on winning the ACC tournament! They went from a team with an outside shot at an at-large that needed a run to winning the whole tournament, and they still will not get an at-large – they earned the autobid! Their run has made them the third ACC team securely in the tournament – North Carolina has also moved up to lock status, while Miami should be fine as well, and Wake Forest and Notre Dame will be sweating it out on Sunday.

Locks


Duke (28-6 (16-4 ACC), NET 13, SOS 67, 6-2 Q1, 6-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Virginia Tech (23-12 (11-9 ACC), NET 27, SOS 70, 3-5 Q1, 6-5 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

North Carolina (24-9 (15-5 ACC), NET 32, SOS 58, 3-8 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Should be in


Miami (FL) (23-10 (14-6 ACC), NET 62, SOS 76, 4-3 Q1, 5-4 Q2, 3 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Miami is in a pretty good position now, but they have nothing more they can do. Avoiding a loss to Boston College is huge, and probably put them in a safe enough position where they don't have to worry, but after the Duke loss, I don't think they're a lock to make it. Their quadrant records have stabilized out somewhat, but 4-3 Q1 is still good, and a 5-4 record in Q2 is above .500. However, they do have 3 Q3 losses, which definitely keep some doubt in there. Wins at Duke, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are all good, and they also have a Q1 win against North Texas on a neutral court, but losses at home to Virginia, UCF and Florida State are not ideal.

Work left to do


Wake Forest (23-9 (13-7 ACC), NET 48, SOS 106, 1-4 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Oh no, Wake Forest lost to Boston College in the ACC tourney. That will significantly dampen their hopes – at 1-4 Q1 and 4-3 Q2, they did not want to pick up a 2nd Q3 loss, but they just did. Wins at Virginia Tech, vs. North Carolina and vs. Notre Dame give them an edge over fellow ACC bubble teams in 1-on-1 comparisons, but they may not be enough to lift an entire resume. I was never too high on Wake, and their resume may not support a tournament bid at this point – their NET rating is at 48, which is okay, but not super high. They'll definitely be sweating Selection Sunday out.

Notre Dame (21-10 (15-5 ACC), NET 53, SOS 68, 2-8 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Time for Notre Dame to see if what they did over the season is enough. They lost their first conference tournament game to Virginia Tech – it's not a bad loss, Q1, but a missed opportunity for a team with 4 Q1/Q2 wins. Those wins are a great one vs. Kentucky, solid ones vs. North Carolina and at Miami, and one at Clemson. Just those 4 may not be enough, with how the rest of the bubble is trending – they have some higher-end Q3 wins, but still, it's not ideal. The road loss to Boston College is also not ideal, and they have 10 total losses, which may be too much when they only have 4 Q1/Q2 wins. We'll see – they seem to be on the right side of the bubble right now, but I'm not sure it'll stay that way.

Big 12


Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Iowa State
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Oklahoma

Well, we're down to one question mark: Oklahoma. Kansas took the Big 12 tournament, while Texas Tech knocked off Oklahoma in the semifinals, so we're really only left with the Sooners as a bubble team. I'd say they're on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but it's close.

Locks


Baylor (26-6 (14-4 Big 12), NET 4, SOS 13, 10-5 Q1, 8-1 Q2)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Kansas (28-6 (14-4 Big 12), NET 6, SOS 6, 12-5 Q1, 8-1 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

Texas Tech (25-9 (12-6 Big 12), NET 9, SOS 12, 8-9 Q1, 7-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Texas (21-11 (10-8 Big 12), NET 17, SOS 17, 5-10 Q1, 5-1 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

TCU (20-12 (8-10 Big 12), NET 45, SOS 10, 8-8 Q1, 2-4 Q2)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Iowa State (20-12 (7-11 Big 12), NET 49, SOS 11, 9-8 Q1, 1-4 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Work left to do


Oklahoma (18-15 (7-11 Big 12), NET 40, SOS 3, 4-12 Q1, 6-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Well, Oklahoma has to just sit and wait. A loss to Texas Tech in the semifinals ends the Sooners' chances to build up their resume, so they're left with what they have. The 18-15 record is not ideal, but they do have the huge win over Baylor in the conference tournament, in addition to wins over Texas Tech at home and Arkansas on a neutral court which are big. They also have a bunch of solid wins in Q2 – however, that may not be enough with 15 losses, including one at home to Butler, which is Q3.

Big East


Locks: Villanova, Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Xavier

Villanova won the conference tournament in the Big East, over Creighton, who was the team coming in that was probably in but needed a win to seal their spot; they got two. That leaves one major question mark in the Big East: Xavier. They will have to wait and see what their fate is, as they have been eliminated from the Big East tournament, after a loss to Butler.

Locks


Villanova (26-7 (16-4 Big East), NET 7, SOS 16, 7-6 Q1, 10-1 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

Connecticut (23-9 (13-6 Big East), NET 16, SOS 40, 5-6 Q1, 8-3 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Providence (25-5 (14-3 Big East), NET 33, SOS 54, 5-3 Q1, 9-2 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Seton Hall (20-10 (11-8 Big East), NET 37, SOS 28, 6-7 Q1, 3-3 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Marquette (19-12 (11-8 Big East), NET 43, SOS 23, 5-7 Q1, 5-5 Q2)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Creighton (22-11 (12-7 Big East), NET 55, SOS 33, 7-6 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Work left to do


Xavier (18-13 (8-11 Big East), NET 41, SOS 39, 5-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Well, Xavier has to just sweat it out now. A loss to Butler in the conference tournament is Q3, and if they weren't in trouble before, they are now. Their last win against a team not named Georgetown was in mid February at home against UConn – that is also probably their best win on the year, though they do have 4 other Q1 wins, including one vs. Ohio State (the others are neutral vs. VT, @ OKST and @ Creighton). Is a 9-11 top 2 quadrants record with 2 Q3 losses good enough? I can definitely say the DePaul home loss and recent Butler loss are not good, and put them in a position where they'll be sweating on Sunday.

Big Ten


Locks: Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State
Should be in: Indiana
Work left to do: Michigan, Rutgers

The storm has cleared in the Big Ten, and we have 6 locks, 1 should be in team and 2 teams with work left to do...that can't do any more work. The 6 locks are obviously in and have been for a while, while Indiana picked up enough in the conference tournament to make their chances of an at-large good. Michigan and Rutgers are the interesting bubble cases – Michigan appears to be on the right side of it, while Rutgers is right on it. We could see anywhere from a 7 to 9 bid Big Ten; I think we'll see 8 or 9 make it, personally.

Locks


Purdue (27-7 (14-6 B1G), NET 11, SOS 37, 8-6 Q1, 6-1 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Iowa (26-9 (12-8 B1G), NET 14, SOS 53, 4-6 Q1, 8-3 Q2)
 – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

Illinois (22-9 (15-5 B1G), NET 15, SOS 21, 6-6 Q1, 6-3 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Wisconsin (24-7 (15-5 B1G), NET 24, SOS 18, 9-3 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Ohio State (19-11 (12-8 B1G), NET 26, SOS 25, 5-5 Q1, 5-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Michigan State (22-12 (11-9 B1G), NET 36, SOS 14, 5-9 Q1, 8-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Should be in


Indiana (20-13 (9-11 B1G), NET 39, SOS 38, 4-8 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Indiana fell to Iowa in the semifinals, but as the dust has settled, they've put themselves on the right side of the bubble. They're certainly not a lock to make it, but they should be in the field by now, after picking up some huge wins over Illinois and Michigan in the conference tournament – those account for half of their Q1 wins now. Those two wins add to the previous two they had at home, against Purdue and Ohio State, and give them some solid wins at the top of their resume – solid enough to the point where I think they're fine. They have some meh losses, such as at Syracuse, Penn State and Northwestern, but the only Q3 loss is at home against Rutgers and is more realistically a Q2 loss, but technically it is Q3. We'll see if they've done enough when the selection show comes around.

Work left to do


Michigan (17-14 (11-9 B1G), NET 34, SOS 7, 5-10 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Michigan dropped the opening conference tournament game to Indiana, which leaves them at 17-14 heading into Selection Sunday. That record will hurt them quite a bit – the only really meh losses are at UCF and vs. Minnesota, of which the latter is Q3, but the sheer number of them is a problem. Wins at Iowa, vs. Purdue, and at Ohio State are all very good, and they have decent depth wins, along with a top 35 NET rating and support from metrics. Is it enough for an at-large? Maybe; I'd personally say they're currently on the right side of the bubble.

Rutgers (18-13 (12-8 B1G), NET 77, SOS 34, 6-6 Q1, 3-4 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

It was quite a year for the Scarlet Knights. They started out the year 3-3, with losses at home to Lafayette, at DePaul and at UMass, and an OT win over Lehigh at home in their first game. Since then, they've definitely improved quite a bit – they picked up a win vs. Purdue in Purdue's first ever game as #1, and picked up some solid wins, but ended up dropping conference games at Penn State, at Minnesota, vs. Maryland and at Northwestern. At that point, it looked like they were completely out of it, but they pulled off 4 straight wins against ranked teams (at the time) – vs. Michigan State, vs. Ohio State, at Wisconsin and vs. Illinois. They lost 3 in a row after that, but they were in good enough position where after winning at Indiana and vs. Penn State to close the year, they were on the bubble, likely the right side of it. They lost to Iowa, however, in their first Big 12 tournament game – that leaves them with probably the most intriguing bubble case in the nation as of now. We'll see where they end up, come Selection Sunday.

Mountain West


Locks: San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Wyoming

We are looking at a likely 4 bid MWC; CSU, Boise and SDSU are locks, with SDSU being the latest addition there, and Wyoming should be fine, though they're in work left to do now. Boise ended up taking the conference tournament, picking up their 3rd win against San Diego State to win the championship (the three wins were by a combined 7 points, and the largest margin was a 42-37 win, lol), while CSU and Wyoming went out in the semifinals.

Locks


San Diego State (23-8 (13-4 MWC), NET 25, SOS 60, 5-8 Q1, 5-0 Q2)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Colorado State (24-5 (14-4 MWC), NET 28, SOS 81, 5-3 Q1, 8-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Boise State (26-7 (15-3 MWC), NET 29, SOS 86, 6-3 Q1, 7-3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

Work left to do


Wyoming (24-8 (13-5 MWC), NET 50, SOS 90, 4-5 Q1, 7-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

I was thinking Wyoming was pretty safe, but they're the 2nd to last team in now on bracketmatrix, and I'm much less sure, so they've been moved down to work left to do. Wins at home against Colorado State and Boise State are huge, but after that, sweeps of Utah State and Fresno State produce two low-end Q1 and two low-end Q2 wins, while the remaining 5 Q2 wins aren't particularly huge either. They also have 2 Q3 losses – neutral court against Stanford and at New Mexico – which do not help their case either, but with the weaker bubble this year, I think they should be okay.

Pac-12


Locks: Arizona, UCLA, USC
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: N/A

Colorado fell to Arizona, which spells the end of the Buffaloes' at-large hopes. That just leaves 3 teams that will make it – Arizona took the autobid, while the LA schools will get at-larges.

Locks


Arizona (31-3 (18-2 Pac-12), NET 2, SOS 62, 6-3 Q1, 9-0 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

UCLA (25-7 (15-5 Pac-12), NET 10, SOS 43, 5-4 Q1, 8-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

USC (26-7 (14-6 Pac-12), NET 35, SOS 80, 4-4 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

SEC


Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama
Should be in: Texas A&M
Work left to do: N/A

Texas A&M has put themselves in good position with an SEC tournament run to the final – good enough where I've put them in should be in, as I feel like they're pretty safe. We should see a 7 bid SEC as such – Tennessee nabbed the autobid, so congrats to them on winning the SEC tourney!

Locks


Kentucky (26-7 (14-4 SEC), NET 5, SOS 19, 9-7 Q1, 5-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Tennessee (26-7 (14-4 SEC), NET 8, SOS 4, 11-7 Q1, 5-0 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

Auburn (27-5 (15-3 SEC), NET 12, SOS 42, 8-5 Q1, 7-0 Q2)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

LSU (22-11 (9-9 SEC), NET 18, SOS 27, 6-9 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Arkansas (25-8 (13-5 SEC), NET 20, SOS 46, 7-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Alabama (19-13 (9-9 SEC), NET 30, SOS 1, 8-8 Q1, 5-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Should be in


Texas A&M (22-12 (9-9 SEC), NET 42, SOS 47, 4-10 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Texas A&M made a deep run in the SEC tournament, and now that it has ended, I can say the Aggies are in good position for an at-large. Wins over Auburn and Arkansas in the tournament are good Q1 wins, while the Florida win is a decent depth win, and a loss to Tennessee isn't bad at all. At this point, in addition to the Auburn/Arkansas conference tournament wins, they have wins at Alabama and vs. Arkansas in the regular season, and a perfect 5-0 Q2 record. However, home losses to South Carolina and Missouri are Q3, and I don't feel like they're a lock to make it at this point.

West Coast


Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Francisco
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: BYU

San Francisco's win over BYU in the conference tournament was enough to lock them up; I trust the committee enough to invite this San Francisco team, which leaves the WCC with 1 big question mark: BYU. They'll be right on the cut line by Selection Sunday – the question is whether they're on the right side of it or not. There's nothing they can do at this point, other than wait.

Locks


Gonzaga (26-3 (13-1 WCC), NET 1, SOS 59, 10-3 Q1, 2-0 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 13

St. Mary's (24-7 (12-3 WCC), NET 19, SOS 56, 4-7 Q1, 6-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 13

San Francisco (23-9 (10-6 WCC), NET 22, SOS 65, 4-6 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)
 – Last updated: Mar. 13

Work left to do


BYU (20-10 (9-6 WCC), NET 54, SOS 66, 4-6 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Time for BYU to wait and see how things go. Are wins vs. St. Mary's, at San Francisco, vs. San Diego State, and at Missouri State in Q1, along with wins against Oregon on a neutral court, Utah State at home and Utah on the road in Q2 actually good enough? I'd say the Q2 wins are lower-end Q2, while the Q1 wins are split. The main problem is their Q4 road loss to Pacific, but even though it's Q2, a loss at Utah Valley is not ideal either. I would not want to be part of BYU's team at this point – must be an incredibly tense atmosphere there.

Others


Autobids: Murray State, Loyola-Chicago, South Dakota State
Locks: N/A
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: North Texas

Quick preface: the Autobids section is only for potential bubble teams that got autobids. With that out of the way, Murray State, Loyola-Chicago, and South Dakota State picked up their conference tournaments; I was somewhat disappointed to see Murray beat Morehead, as I would've liked to see Morehead in the tourney, but I wasn't sure at all that Loyola would've gotten an at-large with another loss to Drake. That only leaves one real options for an at-large (UAB isn't in that category for me): North Texas.

Autobids


Murray State (27-2 (18-0 OVC), NET 21, SOS 219, 2-1 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Loyola-Chicago (24-7 (13-5 MVC), NET 23, SOS 112, 3-2 Q1, 5-4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

South Dakota State (28-4 (18-0 Summit), NET 65, SOS 255, 0-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Work left to do


North Texas (22-6 (16-2 C-USA), NET 47, SOS 144, 1-1 Q1, 5-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 13

Yikes, a loss to Louisiana Tech in the conference is Q2, but it definitely doesn't help. The Mean Green are at 1-1 Q1, 5-3 Q2 with 2 Q3 losses heading into Sunday, and while they do have a top 50 NET rating, that's worse than a decent amount of fellow bubble teams. I doubt it's enough for an at-large at this point – a win at UAB is solid, but it's their only Q1 win, and they are 1-2 in Q2-A (higher-end Q2). Time to wait and see.

Statistics:


This portion will cover teams moving in/out across the past week-ish. (It's pretty loose, so I just leave here what I think makes sense to include at this point.)

+ Texas A&M, Dayton

– Colorado, Florida

Teams on my radar: SBU, Fla

Total locks/autobids: 42 (13 guaranteed autobids)

Total should be in: 4

Total work left to do: 12

Spots vs. teams included (accounting for autobids): 36, 33 taken by locks/should be in, 3 spots for 12 work left to do

If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, see you whenever the next one pops up!

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