Hey, this is back! I titled the blog with this and I barely made any bubble watches, but they are one of my favorite things to make; just takes a while and I couldn't finish one before. Everything is post-Jan 23 games; data is from warrennolan.com, and non-D1 wins aren't counted in records.
American
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Houston
Work left to do: SMU, Cincinnati, UCF
UCF, SMU and Memphis are all borderline; I have included UCF & SMU, but they definitely have a very uphill battle to fight. Memphis needs more to make it on, as a few bad losses and 8 total losses at this point is way too much for me to consider them.
Should be in
Houston (17-2 (6-0 AAC), NET 3, SOS 163, 1-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Houston just put up an amazing defensive showcase against East Carolina. Granted, ECU isn't all that good, but it was awesome to watch. Resume-wise, they don't have all that much in the win column, but they haven't done anything bad either. A neutral court loss to Wisconsin and a road loss to Alabama aren't bad, but their Q1/Q2 wins are neutral court wins against Oklahoma State and Oregon, plus a road win at Temple. Plenty of games to add to that are still left on their schedule, as road contests at Cincinnati and SMU are currently Q1 games, while road contests against UCF and Memphis are higher-end Q2 games.
Work left to do
SMU (14-4 (5-1 AAC), NET 59, SOS 212, 0-2 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
As of now, SMU has quite a bit of work to do to get in the tourney. Neutral court losses to Missouri and Loyola Marymount are Q3 losses, and road wins at Memphis and Tulane and a home win against Dayton are their Q2 wins. A home game against Houston comes on February 9th, which could be the key game for an NCAA tournament bid, and if they don't win that they have an uphill battle to fight.
Cincinnati (13-5 (4-2 AAC), NET 65, SOS 140, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Cincinnati may be in trouble as well, but a neutral court win against Illinois is huge. They also have a home win against SMU and a road win against Wichita State, which help mitigate home losses to Monmouth and Tulane. They have one contest left against all of the AAC tournament hopefuls, which could very easily be the difference between them getting in and one of the others making it; two of their last three games are at UCF and at SMU, which may turn into win-and-in type of games, though there will be a conference tournament afterwards.
UCF (12-5 (4-3 AAC), NET 78, SOS 132, 1-2 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
UCF sits in a fairly similar situation to the other two, but with their Q3 losses being at home to Temple and at USF, I would say those are even worse than the other two teams'. A road win at Miami and a home win against Michigan are good, however, and they did beat Memphis at home and Temple on the road (which are both barely Q2). A home chance against Houston could be make or break for them, like it is for SMU.
Atlantic 10
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Davidson
Work left to do: VCU, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure
Hey, the A10 has a section this year! Enough teams are on the bubble in the A10 where I think it fits to have a section. Also, can I take some time to point out Dayton's resume? 2-1 Q1 with a neutral court win against Kansas, 3-3 Q2, and 3 Q4 losses. I don't think they have a chance, but that is a really interesting resume.
Should be in
Davidson (15-2 (6-0 A10), NET 37, SOS 169, 2-1 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
Davidson earned a top 25 spot this week! I was not expecting that, but they made it. Their resume is headlined by a neutral court win against Alabama, followed by a road win at VCU. The two losses on a neutral court to both San Francisco and New Mexico State aren't great, but could certainly be worse. They also have home games against VCU and St. Bonaventure coming up soon.
Work left to do
VCU (11-6 (4-2 A10), NET 67, SOS 76, 1-2 Q1, 2-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
VCU seems borderline on inclusion for me. However, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Wins at Dayton and Vandy, and a neutral court win against Syracuse are decent, but that's it for their wins. A loss at home to Wagner is Q3, though just barely, and they have 3 Q2 losses (vs. Davidson, vs. Chattanooga, @ St. Bonaventure). A win at Davidson on Wednesday would be huge. If they don't win that, they have a very uphill battle to fight.
Saint Louis (11-6 (3-2 A10), NET 68, SOS 105, 1-3 Q1, 1-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Saint Louis and VCU look fairly similar resume-wise, but despite VCU having an extra Q2 win, I think Saint Louis's wins are better. A road win against Boise is Q1 and is against a bubble team, and they also have a home win against a bubble Iona team that's Q2. The road loss to UMass is rough, but I still think they're in the conversation. Their next Q1/Q2 game is in 2 weeks, when they host Dayton.
St. Bonaventure (11-4 (3-1 A10), NET 92, SOS 102, 2-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Despite sitting at 92nd in NET (I have no idea why), St. Bonaventure seems like the most likely A10 team to get a second bid, at least as of today. Neutral court wins over Marquette and Boise are good, and a home win against fellow bubble hopeful VCU also helps out. The home loss to Northern Iowa isn't great, but outside of that, they don't have anything too bad on their resume. A home game against Davidson next Tuesday will be a big chance for them to improve their chances at a tourney bid.
ACC
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Duke
Work left to do: Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida State, Miami (FL), Notre Dame
Virginia Tech feels similar to Memphis resume-wise, but they have more chances to make it up. They also have a higher NET rating. I wouldn't say they're in the picture yet, but they might be soon.
Should be in
Duke (15-3 (5-2 ACC), NET 12, SOS 73, 3-2 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
Duke has looked like the one certainty to make the tournament in an otherwise weak ACC. Even then, I don't think Duke looks great, but they do look like the best team in the conference. Losses at Florida State and at home against Miami aren't necessarily encouraging, but neutral court wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky very much are. They're not quite to lock status yet, especially in a weaker ACC.
Work left to do
Wake Forest (16-4 (6-3 ACC), NET 40, SOS 110, 1-3 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
Wake has set themselves up in a solid position so far, with some decent wins at Virginia Tech, vs. UNC and vs. Miami, all potential bubble teams, and their only concerning loss being at Louisville. If they don't fall apart or pick up some bad losses, they'll be in, but as of now they remain in work left to do.
North Carolina (12-6 (4-3 ACC), NET 51, SOS 42, 0-6 Q1, 1-0 Q2)
I don't really know what to make of North Carolina. They're 0-6 in Q1, but they've won their only Q2 game and haven't lost anything below Q1. Their Q2 win is at home against Michigan, which is decent, but honestly I just really need more data points for them. Their next big test is at home against Duke, which is obviously a huge game anyway; right before that, they have their second Q2 game of the year, a road trip to Louisville. With 3 Q1 and 4 Q2 games left on their schedule as it stands now, we'll have to wait to see what they do in those.
Florida State (13-5 (6-2 ACC), NET 58, SOS 56, 2-3 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
FSU picked up two very timely huge wins, a great home in in OT against Duke and a home win against Miami (which they nearly blew a 43-19 lead in...) to put themselves in the field for now in my opinion. Those two wins, in addition to a road win at Miami as well, help build a solid case. However, they do have two Q3 losses; a home loss to Syracuse and a neutral court loss to South Carolina. Their spot is clearly not secure, so we'll see if they can hold onto it.
Miami (FL) (14-5 (6-2 ACC), NET 69, SOS 65, 1-2 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Miami holds a great win at Duke and backs it up with some solid wins vs. Wake and UNC. I would say that Miami is currently in the second best position out of ACC teams, as even their 1 Q3 loss is a home loss to a bubble team in UCF. Losing both games to FSU certainly doesn't help, but they're in a decent position as of now.
Notre Dame (11-6 (5-2 ACC), NET 72, SOS 44, 1-4 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Notre Dame has a great home win against Kentucky, which is the main thing holding their bubble hopes together. Their 2 Q2 wins are at home against UNC and at Louisville; the first is decent, the second is okay; but they still also have a rough loss at Boston College. They still have some chances, but not that many games left against other contenders; road games against Wake, FSU and Miami are their only ones left against teams currently in this section.
Big 12
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State
Work left to do: Oklahoma, TCU, West Virginia
I debated throwing Kansas State in; if they'd beaten Kansas, they certainly would have been in. For now, I only have 8 out of the 9 eligible Big 12 teams on my watch. KSU needs something significant, and as of now, they don't really have it yet.
Should be in
Baylor (17-2 (5-2 Big 12), NET 4, SOS 18, 7-1 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
Baylor is very close to being an immediate lock, but with how they've been playing as of late, I don't feel comfortable locking them up yet. Either way, their resume is still great (7 Q1 wins speak for themselves), and their only real blemish is a home loss to Oklahoma State; losing at home to Texas Tech is not too bad. Wins at home against KSU and at Alabama will almost certainly lock them up.
Kansas (16-2 (5-1 Big 12), NET 7, SOS 27, 5-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
Kansas is in a similar spot to Baylor – not quite locked yet, but a couple more wins and they will be. Their resume feels very similar, with a bad loss on a neutral court to Dayton but other than that nothing too bad. They have a chance for revenge against TTU at home, followed by another home game against Kentucky. Winning those two will also most likely lock them up.
Texas Tech (15-4 (5-2 Big 12), NET 14, SOS 23, 4-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Texas Tech has two great wins, one on the road against Baylor and one at home against Kansas. That puts them already in great shape, and with no real bad losses and some more solid wins (neutral against Tenn, home vs. ISU are also Q1), they look pretty good right now. They get a chance to sweep Kansas when they visit them in their next game – could be very interesting.
Texas (14-5 (4-3 Big 12), NET 17, SOS 68, 1-4 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
I was very close to putting Texas in work left to do, because honestly I just don't see what they've done that's all that impressive. A road win against Kansas State is their only Q1 win, and they have some decent home wins against Oklahoma, WVU and Oklahoma State, but they need something more for me to feel like they really solidly should be in. Games at TCU and vs. Tennessee will be big for this; 2 Q1 games that will be fairly important.
Iowa State (14-5 (2-5 Big 12), NET 30, SOS 11, 5-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
Iowa State could certainly be in the work left to do category, but I think their 5 Q1 wins keep them in should be in, for now. Wins at home against TTU, Texas and Iowa, a neutral court win over Xavier and a road win at Creighton are all solid wins, and their one rough game was their loss to TCU, who is still looking like a tournament team. They'll be fine if they don't completely collapse.
Work left to do
Oklahoma (12-7 (2-5 Big 12), NET 41, SOS 20, 1-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Oklahoma sits pretty clearly right on the bubble for me for now. The home loss to Butler is concerning, and with only 1 Q1 win (vs. ISU), it doesn't look particularly amazing. However, their 4 Q2 wins all seem solid; vs. Florida, neutral court against Arkansas, at UCF and vs. Kansas State. We'll see how it goes, but they definitely have some work left to do. The next two games are at West Virginia and Auburn.
TCU (13-3 (3-2 Big 12), NET 44, SOS 84, 2-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
TCU has not yet run into the really tough part of their schedule, so it'll be interesting to see how they do. The domination of Iowa State on the road was very impressive to me, but other than that, they don't have too much. The neutral court loss to Santa Clara is uh... not great, and their other Q1/Q2 wins are decent (vs. Oklahoma, @ KSU, neutral against TAMU), but there's still some question marks. Home games against Texas and LSU should answer some of them.
West Virginia (13-5 (2-4 Big 12), NET 48, SOS 15, 2-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
West Virginia has looked solid so far this season – not doing anything wrong, just chugging along. They have 2 Q1 wins – vs. Connecticut and at UAB – and no bad losses (the worst one being on a neutral court against Marquette). Their Q2 wins aren't the most impressive, but if they keep up what they're doing, they should be fine – but right now, they stay in work left to do.
Big East
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Villanova, Connecticut, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence
Work left to do: Creighton
I think the Big East will probably get these 7 teams in; I don't see any of them really falling out, or anyone else jumping in.
Should be in
Villanova (14-5 (7-2 Big East), NET 6, SOS 4, 4-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
Villanova has played a very tough schedule, and has handled it fairly well so far. A season sweep of Xavier, a road win over Seton Hall and a neutral court win against Tennessee are all good Q1 wins, while their only 2 losses which are somewhat rough are at Creighton and vs. Marquette. With plenty of chances for Q3 losses (and even a Q4 loss), they aren't nearly safe enough to be locked up yet.
Connecticut (13-4 (4-2 Big East), NET 15, SOS 50, 2-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
UConn has a fairly solid resume – nothing bad, and a great win over Auburn on a neutral court headlining it. They don't have a bad loss, and they have solid wins past that (at Marquette, along with neutral court wins over bubble teams VCU and St. Bonaventure). The one Q2 loss is to a Providence team which is very much underrated by NET. As long as they don't do anything too bad, they should be fine.
Xavier (14-4 (4-3 Big East), NET 19, SOS 17, 2-4 Q1, 5-0 Q2)
Xavier is another team that hasn't done anything too notable; they have no bad losses, and a bunch of decent wins. Home wins against Ohio State and Marquette are both solid, and they have good depth too (a Q1 road win at Oklahoma State is the best out of those). They're solidly in right now, and probably will stay that way.
Seton Hall (11-5 (3-4 Big East), NET 29, SOS 10, 3-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
I don't know how I feel about Seton Hall. Home wins against UConn and Texas are solid, and a road win against Michigan is decent, but that's really it for them. They should be fairly solidly in for now, but I'm not sure whether to keep them in should be in or work left to do. A road loss to DePaul isn't great, either. I've left them in should be in for now, but they could fall down to work left to do fairly easily.
Marquette (14-6 (6-3 Big East), NET 32, SOS 7, 6-4 Q1, 1-2 Q2)
Marquette has an interesting resume. Plenty of good wins (at Villanova, vs. Illinois, vs. Xavier, vs. Seton Hall are all very good), but they also have some more meh losses, like one on a neutral court to St. Bonaventure. However, what I'm seeing makes me say that they're solidly in for now. Those wins are really good. If they keep up what they're doing, 5 of their last 6 games are against non-tournament hopefuls, so they have an easier time the rest of the way, and they're already on a 6 game winning streak.
Providence (16-2 (6-1 Big East), NET 39, SOS 66, 4-1 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
The efficiency metrics and NET seem to dislike Providence, but they have been playing well from my view. Outside of a weird early season neutral court loss to Virginia, they've looked good the rest of the year, with road wins at Wisconsin & UConn and a home win against TTU all being very good. As long as they keep up what they're doing, they'll easily be in.
Work left to do
Creighton (12-5 (4-2 Big East, NET 52, SOS 32, 3-4 Q1, 0-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
I could've put Creighton in should be in, but they're not quite there yet for me. A home win over Villanova is a good starting point for them, and they also have a road win against Marquette and a neutral court win against BYU. However, they have no Q2 games yet, and they lost at home to Arizona State. They'll get more Q1/Q2 games, but we'll just have to see what they do with them.
Big Ten
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Work left to do: Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota
Michigan and Rutgers have too much work to do to be in the conversation as of now. Michigan was close, but they need more decent wins, even with how the metrics love them. Rutgers can get into the convo if they pick up some good wins as well.
Should be in
Purdue (16-3 (5-3 B1G), NET 8, SOS 51, 3-2 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
Purdue has looked fairly good this year, though they do have that weird loss at Rutgers. However, they definitely have the wins and metrics to make up for it. A neutral court win over Villanova leads their resume, and that Rutgers loss is the only major blemish, but it's still Q2. As long as they don't pick up a bunch of bad losses, they'll make the tournament.
Illinois (13-5 (6-2 B1G), NET 13, SOS 34, 1-3 Q1, 4-2 Q2)
Kenpom/similar metrics and NET love Illinois, but that hasn't translated particularly well to the floor. A road win against Iowa is solid, but that's really it for their good wins, and without Cockburn they struggle; see the recent road loss to Maryland for an example. A home game against Michigan State will be big in my view, as I'm not sure what I think of them right now.
Michigan State (15-3 (6-1 B1G), NET 18, SOS 21, 3-2 Q1, 4-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Michigan State has one weird home loss to Northwestern, which is Q3, but other than that they've looked good. Losses to Baylor and Kansas on a neutral court are not bad, and wins at Wisconsin and against UConn/Loyola on neutral courts are good. Their trip to Illinois will be big for both teams, and I'm intrigued to see how it plays out.
Wisconsin (15-3 (6-2 B1G), NET 21, SOS 5, 5-2 Q1, 5-1 Q2)
Wisconsin's resume looks like one of the top in the country for me, but other metrics don't seem to agree. Either way, I would personally have them as a 1 or 2 seed, and they should be easily in right now. A neutral court win over Houston and a road win against Purdue are two great wins, and the other 8 combined Q1/Q2 wins back them up too. None of their losses are bad; vs. MSU, vs. Providence and at Ohio State aren't bad losses at all.
Ohio State (12-4 (5-2 B1G), NET 23, SOS 16, 3-4 Q1, 1-0 Q2)
Ohio State hasn't done anything too bad this year, and they have some decent wins; vs. Duke & Wisconsin are both very good. However, they really need more wins in Q1/Q2; for now they're pretty solidly in, but we'll have to see how they do in their remaining Q1/Q2 games. Their next 2 games are road games at Minnesota and Purdue; we'll see how those go.
Work left to do
Iowa (14-5 (4-4 B1G), NET 22, SOS 61, 0-4 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
Iowa hasn't done too much notable - their Q2 wins are okay (vs. Indiana, neutral against USU, @ Minny and @ Virginia), but they also have a Q2 loss at Rutgers, and they haven't won a Q1 game yet. They need to pick up a Q1 win in here somewhere; they get a chance while hosting Purdue in their next game.
Indiana (14-5 (5-4 B1G), NET 42, SOS 86, 2-2 Q1, 1-3 Q2)
Indiana picked up a huge win at home against Purdue, which probably just put them on the right side of the bubble - one home win against OSU and a neutral court win over Notre Dame before may not have been enough. Even with that win, they have an unimpressive 1-3 Q2 record, with losses at Penn State and Syracuse in that. They're 12-1 at home and 1-4 on the road; we'll see what they can do at Maryland. If they lose that one, that does not bode well.
Minnesota (11-5 (2-5 B1G), NET 79, SOS 37, 2-5 Q1, 0-0 Q2)
Minnesota is currently in a spot where they just really need more opportunities. Right now, they're 2-5 in Q1, with some decent road wins at Michigan and Mississippi State, but that probably isn't enough to get them in. They have a stretch of vs. Ohio State, at Wisconsin and vs. Purdue coming up - they probably need to at least win one of those.
Mountain West
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Colorado State
Work left to do: Wyoming, Boise State, San Diego State
Hey, the Mountain West has a section this year! I think there's enough reasonable bubble candidates for a MWC section this year, as there are at least 4 for this week's watch, and Fresno may be worth keeping an eye on as well.
Should be in
Colorado State (14-1 (5-1 MWC), NET 27, SOS 175, 2-1 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Colorado State has looked pretty good so far, outside of a blowout loss at San Diego State. Wins over St. Mary's at home and Mississippi State/Creighton on a neutral court put them in a very good position, as long as they don't do anything awful in conference. If they can survive the two Nevada schools at home, they get Wyoming on the road and a chance for revenge vs. San Diego State. If they can win those, they'll be in great shape.
Work left to do
Wyoming (14-2 (4-0 MWC), NET 31, SOS 158, 1-1 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
More is needed from Wyoming. They don't have a bad loss, but their best win is at Utah State (or at Grand Canyon, take your pick). They need something more – a road game at Boise is next up, and they get Colorado State at home next Monday. Those 2 games should tell us whether Wyoming is a legitimate tourney contender.
Boise State (14-4 (6-0 MWC), NET 43, SOS 147, 2-0 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)
Well uh, that was certainly a win at SDSU. It's the type of top win they needed, and they managed it while only scoring 42, winning 42-37. I'm not sure whether to think they're good or bad after that. Either way, they really needed that win, as their best win before that was one of Wazzu on a neutral court, USU on the road or Fresno at home. Those now sit as okay depth wins, which is important because they have some losses which do not impress. Losses at home to Saint Louis, on a neutral court to St. Bonaventure and at UC Irvine are all within 10 ranks of being Q3 losses, so they could reasonably fluctuate there, though the first two are still bubble teams. I also almost missed their Q4 loss at home to Cal State Bakersfield...yikes. A home game against Wyoming and a road trip to Fresno will likely be high-end Q2 and low-end Q1 respectively, and could be huge for their resume.
San Diego State (10-4 (2-1 MWC), NET 47, SOS 56, 2-3 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
San Diego State has a great home win against Colorado State to lead their resume, but that and a neutral court win against St. Mary's are their only two real good wins; UNLV on the road is I guess Q2, but not particularly impressive. The Boise game was a missed opportunity (I suspect in more ways than one – 37 points and still being in the game? seriously?), but they do get road chances at Utah State and Colorado State in the next 2 weeks to get that type of a win.
Pac-12
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Arizona, UCLA, USC
Work left to do: Oregon, Stanford
I haven't really seen any of these teams play. I also don't know too much about them, but I'm hoping to see the Arizona-UCLA-USC trio of games in early February.
Should be in
Arizona (16-1 (6-0 Pac-12), NET 1, SOS 99, 2-1 Q1, 4-0 Q2)
Arizona sits at #1 in NET as of now; not sure I agree with that, but they certainly do seem good. Honestly though, their resume feels somewhat underwhelming for a #1 team in NET, though I haven't really seen them play. Q1 wins at Illinois and on a neutral court against Michigan are decent, and a home win against Wyoming along with a road win at Stanford also help, it's still not that significant for me. Their one loss certainly isn't bad (at Tennessee), and I'm excited for their homestand against UCLA and USC on Feb 3/5. Until then, I'll wait.
UCLA (13-2 (5-1 Pac-12), NET 16, SOS 62, 2-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
UCLA has 2 very solid wins to start off their resume, home against Villanova and at Marquette, but it really just falls off there. They did not look impressive in their neutral court loss to Gonzaga, and a home loss to Oregon is not great. Their Q2 wins are all pretty meh, comprising 3 borderline Q3 wins and a road win at Colorado, which doesn't feel that inspiring.The Arizona and USC games will tell me a lot.
USC (16-2 (6-2 Pac-12), NET 24, SOS 173, 2-0 Q1, 4-2 Q2)
I know even less about USC than I do about Arizona and UCLA. 2 Q1 wins on a neutral court against SDSU and at Wazzu both seem decent, but they also have a home loss to Oregon and a road loss at Stanford. They should be in the tournament at this point, but I just don't really know what to say here; their Q2 wins are all pretty meh, comprising 3 borderline Q3 wins and a road win at Colorado, like UCLA. Completing the triangle, I'm intrigued for the Arizona/UCLA games.
Work left to do
Oregon (11-6 (5-2 Pac-12), NET 49, SOS 29, 2-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
A road sweep of the LA schools puts Oregon in the tournament for now, but they are certainly still on the bubble. A home win against SMU is their Q2 win, which is also decent. However, that home loss to Arizona State is Q3 and not very good. A road loss to a fellow bubble team in Stanford doesn't help their case either. Road games at Colorado and Utah will be Q2 opportunities, and if they lose both, they are not in good shape.
Stanford (11-6 (4-3 Pac-12), NET 93, SOS 19, 3-3 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Yes, I am including a Stanford team that is 93 in NET. I see their wins as being enough to keep them in the conversation - home wins against USC and Oregon, a neutral court win against Wyoming and a road win against Wazzu are all Q1/Q2 and decent. However, they do have some problematic losses; road losses to Santa Clara, Colorado and Washington do not inspire me. They travel to LA to face USC and UCLA next; they probably need to win at least one of those.
SEC
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama
Work left to do: Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Texas A&M
I...don't really have anything to say here. Congrats to Auburn on their first ever #1 ranking! Alabama has one of the weirdest resumes of any team this year (probably second to Dayton). Let's just get into the bubble teams, I guess?
Should be in
Auburn (18-1 (7-0 SEC), NET 5, SOS 31, 5-1 Q1, 5-0 Q2)
Auburn is probably the closest team to being a lock in my first bubble watch. They earned a well-deserved first ever #1 ranking this week, backed by a win at home against Kentucky that pushed them over the edge. Wins at home against LSU, at Alabama and against Loyola-Chicago on a neutral court are all solid. They have plenty of depth as well. If they win at Mizzou and vs. Oklahoma, most likely they're a lock.
Kentucky (15-4 (5-2 SEC), NET 9, SOS 48, 2-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Honestly, I haven't been particularly impressed by Kentucky at many points this season, outside of the great home win against Tennessee and the first half of the Auburn game. Outside of that, they've looked okay to me, but not great. Their resume doesn't exactly look great either, with wins at Texas A&M, against UNC on a neutral court and at Vandy being okay but not great. Their loss at Notre Dame isn't great, but the rest isn't bad at all. Overall, I'm just not really sure what to think.
LSU (15-4 (3-4 SEC), NET 10, SOS 12, 4-3 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
LSU has been sneakily building up a solid resume, and I haven't seen people pay all that much attention to them. Home wins against Kentucky and Tennessee are very good, and they have solid depth too. The home loss to Arkansas isn't great, but their resume looks pretty good outside of that. However, the 3 game losing streak they're on (vs. Arkansas, @ Alabama, @ Tennessee) doesn't encourage me. Games vs. Texas A&M and at TCU are chances to break that streak with a decent win.
Tennessee (13-5 (4-3 SEC), NET 11, SOS 3, 2-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
Tennessee picked up a very good win at home against LSU to add to their Arizona win, which makes 2 wins over top 10 teams in NET. Past that, their resume is okay, but not great; no bad losses, but the next best win is a neutral court win over UNC, and past that road wins at Vandy/Colorado. Games at home against Florida and at Texas should be good to add to that depth, or tell us if they still have a decent bit of work left to do.
Alabama (13-6 (4-3 SEC), NET 20, SOS 1, 5-4 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
What is wrong with Alabama? Like seriously, I don't even know where to begin with them. They have 5 Q1 wins, which include a neutral court win over Gonzaga, and home wins against Houston, Tennessee and LSU, but also losses at Memphis and Missouri, along with some losses to more likely tourney teams in Mississippi State on the road, Iona, and Davidson, the latter two both on a neutral court. I legitimately would not be surprised if they lost at Georgia and then beat Baylor at home and Auburn on the road. Well, maybe slightly, but you get the idea.
Work left to do
Florida (12-6 (3-3 SEC), NET 34, SOS 53, 1-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)
Florida is loved by the non-resume metrics, but that doesn't help their loss to Texas Southern. Granted, I won't knock anyone too hard for losing to Texas Southern (it always happens to someone), but it certainly does not help. A neutral court win over Ohio State is good, and home wins over Mississippi State and Florida State are decent, but that TXSO loss hangs a dark cloud over their resume. They actually have 3 games this week; at Ole Miss on Monday, a huge one at Tennessee on Wednesday, and vs. OKST in the Big 12-SEC challenge on Saturday.
Mississippi State (13-5 (4-2 SEC), NET 45, SOS 154, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Mississippi State's resume is headlined by a home win against Alabama (I can say at least 3 bubble teams have their resume headlined by Bama), but past that it's...eh. A home win against Arkansas is decent, but with 2 Q3 losses at home to Minnesota (doesn't seem that bad to me but I guess NET hates Minny) and on a neutral court against Louisville, they seem very bubbly. If they can pull off a win at Kentucky or Texas Tech, that will probably put them on the right side of the bubble.
Arkansas (14-5 (4-3 SEC), NET 55, SOS 110, 1-3 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Arkansas would have a pretty solid resume, but they have 2 Q3 losses; losses vs. Vanderbilt and vs. Hofstra are not great. Past that, they do have a very good win at LSU, and decent depth with wins against Kansas State and Cincinnati on neutral courts and a home win against Texas A&M, but those 2 Q3 losses take them closer to the bubble. Their Big 12-SEC challenge game is at home against West Virginia - could be a big help if they win that one.
Texas A&M (14-4 (4-2 SEC), NET 61, SOS 142, 0-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Texas A&M has basically won what they're supposed to and lost what they're supposed to. Wins at home against Arkansas and against Notre Dame on a neutral court are okay, and they don't have a bad loss (worst one would be against TCU on a neutral court or at Arkansas). In their next 3 games, they have road trips to LSU and Tennessee; picking up one of those would be big.
West Coast
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Gonzaga, BYU
Work left to do: St. Mary's, San Francisco
Hey, it's another conference that doesn't normally have a section! With 4 teams having good shots, it was warranted here too from my point of view. With the way the WCC is going, I wonder if it'll make itself a staple here (maybe until BYU leaves?). I don't think Santa Clara has much of a chance this year, but I will be keeping an eye on them.
Should be in
Gonzaga (15-2 (4-0 WCC), NET 2, SOS 52, 4-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Gonzaga is doing Gonzaga things this year, just picking up solid wins and not having any bad losses. Wins on a neutral court against Texas Tech and UCLA are very good, and home wins against Texas, BYU and San Francisco are solid. They have two losses, both neutral court losses, to Duke and Alabama. As long as they don't drop any random game, their next real test will be a road trip to BYU. Should be fun!
BYU (15-4 (5-1 WCC), NET 25, SOS 43, 4-1 Q1, 4-3 Q2)
BYU is another team with an awkward resume. Wins at San Francisco, vs. Saint Mary's, and on a neutral court against Oregon are all solid Q1 wins, and they also have wins vs. SDSU (Q2) and at Missouri State (which is Q1 somehow?). However, they have some rough losses. A neutral court loss to Vanderbilt is not good, and they also lost on the road to Utah Valley, which was bizarre. Road trips to Santa Clara and Pacific are next up.
Work left to do
St. Mary's (14-4 (3-1 WCC), NET 28, SOS 72, 2-4 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
I'm not exactly sure what to do with St. Mary's; they could be in should be in, but I've left them in work left to do for now. A neutral court win against Oregon is the top of their resume, with another neutral court win against Notre Dame also being solid, though Q2. Their other Q1 win is a road win against Utah State. They haven't done anything bad; their worst loss is to San Diego State on a neutral court; but, I just think they need more to be in should be in. A road trip to San Francisco could solve that.
San Francisco (15-4 (3-2), NET 35, SOS 106, 2-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
San Francisco is finally in a good position to make the tournament; it feels like they're just outside the bubble every year. This year, neutral court wins against UAB and Davidson help their case significantly, and their only rough loss is a neutral court loss to Grand Canyon. A home win against Fresno also helps. If they don't pick up a bad loss in conference play, they should be fine, but a win against one of St. Mary's (who they get at home on Thursday), BYU (who they travel to the next Thursday), or even Gonzaga (they've got a home game on Feb. 24, which is three Thursdays after the BYU game) would be insurance for their tourney hopes.
Others
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Loyola-Chicago
Work left to do: Murray State, UAB, Belmont, Iona
There were quite a few options here. Chattanooga, North Texas, Toledo, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, and Oakland all barely missed out. Keep an eye out for those teams, as they may have at-large chances down the line.
Should be in
Loyola-Chicago (13-3 (5-1 MVC), NET 26, SOS 121, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
Loyola-Chicago was definitely in before their loss to Missouri State, but they're less sure now. Losing to Missouri State at home is only a Q2 loss, so they should be fine, but it doesn't help them out. A neutral court win against San Francisco is major, but past that their Q2 wins are road wins against Vanderbilt and DePaul, which isn't awe-inspiring. I could've dropped them to work left to do, but I think they should stay in should be in for now. They still have a Q1 game left, a road trip to Missouri State, and this week they travel to Drake, which is a Q2 game.
Work left to do
Murray State (14-2 (7-0 OVC), NET 33, SOS 194, 2-1 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Murray State is actually in a pretty good position for the tournament. They picked up a road win against fellow OVC bubble hopeful Belmont, which is their best win on the year, and they also have a second Q1 win, at Memphis. A home win against Chattanooga also helps. The neutral court loss to East Tennessee State is the one real issue for them, but as long as they don't lose to anyone not named Belmont or Morehead State, they have a decent shot at making it, though a home loss to Morehead would be Q3. The home game against Morehead is on Saturday.
UAB (14-4 (6-1 C-USA), NET 36, SOS 195, 2-1 Q1, 1-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
UAB is also in a decent position right now, with wins at North Texas and Saint Louis being Q1. That, plus a win at Louisiana Tech, gives them 3 Q1/Q2 wins and road wins against the 2 top contenders in the C-USA. The road loss to Rice is uh...yeah, but outside of that, they look pretty destined for the tournament. They only have 1 Q2 game left, a home game against North Texas, though a road trip to WKU is 3 points off Q2 status.
Belmont (13-5 (4-2 OVC), NET 50, SOS 100, 1-1 Q1, 2-4 Q2)
Belmont took a loss at Morehead State on Thursday, which was not helpful for their at-large hopes; they still do have a Q1 win at Saint Louis, but that could've been another Q2 win, or at least not a questionable Q2 loss. A home win against Chattanooga and a neutral court win over Iona are also in Belmont's resume, but they feel a lot more questionable as a bubble team now. They have 1 Q1/Q2 game left: a road trip to Murray State on February 24, and potentially another game against them in the conference tournament.
Iona (16-3 (8-0 MAAC), NET 54, SOS 135, 1-3 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Iona actually has a solid resume; no bad losses and a neutral court win over Alabama will help quite a bit. Losses to Belmont on a neutral court and Saint Louis aren't great, but they're not bad either, and certainly could be a lot worse. Wins against Liberty on a neutral court and Monmouth on the road are their Q2 wins. They will not have another Q1/Q2 opportunity, unless they face a Monmouth team that sits at or above 100 NET in the conference tournament.
Ohio (13-3 (5-1 MAC), NET 84, SOS 179, 0-2 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
Ohio was borderline on inclusion for me, but the lack of a bad loss and a solid home win against Belmont was enough for me to include them here. The home loss to Toledo feels like it's a huge missed opportunity. Losses at Kentucky and LSU aren't bad, however, and they will get a chance for a Q1 win later on at Toledo. They travel to Buffalo on Friday, which is their only Q2 game left.
If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, I doubt I'll be getting one up next week, so my next one will probably come in two weeks. See you whenever the next one pops up!
