Welcome back to my bubble watch! Everything is post-Feb 1 games, data is from warrennolan.com, and non-D1 wins are not counted in records. I may make some slight adjustments following finishing off my own bracketology.
American
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Houston
Work left to do: SMU
Cincinnati and UCF are off the bubble watch for this edition, leaving two AAC teams. Cincinnati has much better hopes, with games at home against Memphis and Houston; win one and they're maybe back on, lose both and they're certainly gone; I was very close to including them here. UCF is a lot clearer as being out, with losses at Wichita and vs. Houston this week. Memphis is also still on the wrong side. but they do have some more chances.
Should be in
Houston (18-2 (7-0 AAC), NET 2, SOS 139, 0-2 Q1, 4-0 Q2)
Houston picked up a solid win at UCF, which gives them another Q2 win – however, their only Q1 win (which I believe was against OKST on a neutral court?) has dropped to Q2. Still, they don't have a bad loss, and that UCF win helps out. Next week features a home game against Tulane and a big road trip to Cincinnati.
Work left to do
SMU (16-4 (7-1 AAC), NET 55, SOS 203, 1-2 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss)
SMU handled USF on the road and Temple at home, which is important as they can't really afford any bad losses – the two Jacksonville Classic losses to Mizzou and Loyola Marymount are bad enough already, with the latter being Q4 (the former is Q3). Their road win against Memphis is now Q1, which helps slightly. They get chances for some big wins up next – a road trip to Wichita next Saturday is a Q2 opportunity, and then they have a huge game, at home against Houston, on the next Wednesday.
Atlantic 10
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Davidson
Work left to do: VCU, Saint Louis
Well, that's it for St. Bonaventure for now. The 102 NET is just too bad without enough good wins – neutral court wins against Marquette and Boise won't cut it for them as of now. They're certainly not out of the hunt, but they're off the watch for now.
Should be in
Davidson (17-3 (8-1 A10), NET 45, SOS 148, 2-1 Q1, 2-2 Q2)
Davidson picked up a neat resume-padding win at St. Bonaventure, which may be Q2, but it certainly helps. The recent home loss to VCU will not hurt them significantly, as they're still solidly in the field. The road win at VCU actually looks better after the loss, and the neutral court win over Alabama is still solid, and is the key piece on their resume. On February 12th, they get their next Q2 game; a trip to Rhode Island.
Work left to do
VCU (13-6 (6-2 A10), NET 56, SOS 59, 1-2 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
I gave VCU the benefit of the doubt last week, and they earned their spot. They picked up the best win possible in the conference at Davidson, which is their only Q1 win as of this moment, as Dayton on the road is ping-ponging between Q1 and Q2 (3 days ago it was Q2, 2 days ago it was Q1, yesterday and today it's Q2 again). They also have 4 Q2 wins, after picking up a win at cross-town rival Richmond. The home loss to Wagner isn't great, but it's not awful by any means, and they're much closer to being in now. Home games against Dayton and Duquesne are next up.
Saint Louis (13-6 (5-2 A10), NET 64, SOS 126, 1-2 Q1, 1-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Saint Louis's resume is very similar to last week; a road win against Boise is Q1 and is against a bubble team, and they also have a home win against a bubble Iona team that's Q2. The road loss to UMass is rough, but I still think they're in the conversation, though I'm less convinced now. They travel to George Mason next, which is a Q2 game. They get a trip to Davidson on February 19, which will be an important game for their chances.
ACC
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Duke
Work left to do: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State
The ACC had a lot more shuffling this week than anyone really moving in/out of the picture. I don't really see anyone joining the picture soon, so I'd say what we have right now is going to be there for at least a little while.
Should be in
Duke (18-3 (8-2 ACC), NET 12, SOS 73, 4-1 Q1, 3-2 Q2)
Duke picked up a solid win at Notre Dame, which was needed after barely beating Clemson at home and Louisville on the road. I'm still not particularly impressed by them, but the great Gonzaga and Kentucky wins help a ton, and they also have a road win at Wake which is also Q1. The Miami and FSU losses have me worried. Next game is the road trip to UNC-Chapel Hill. There are too many Q3 games left for me to consider locking Duke.
Work left to do
North Carolina (16-6 (8-3 ACC), NET 35, SOS 62, 0-6 Q1, 4-0 Q2)
North Carolina is now up to 4 Q2 wins, after picking up a home win against Virginia Tech, the Furman win jumping into Q2, and an OT escape at Louisville. I'm still not fully convinced, however; they haven't picked up a Q1 win yet. They get a chance in the rivalry game against Duke on Saturday.
Wake Forest (17-5 (7-4 ACC), NET 49, SOS 113, 1-3 Q1, 2-2 Q2)
Wake was looking like they were very much on the right path, but a loss at Syracuse will set them back some. The Virginia Tech road win is still good, and they also have a solid home win against UNC, but their other Q2 win is game at Virginia, which is not nearly as impressive. Their next chance for a good win is a trip down to Tallahassee to take on FSU, where they'll be looking for a season sweep.
Miami (FL) (16-5 (8-2 ACC), NET 63, SOS 69, 2-1 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Miami currently looks like the best chance for a 2 bid ACC, even with 2 Q3 losses; home losses to FSU and UCF may be Q3, but they aren't all that bad. A road win against Duke is huge, and they also have another road win at VT to pick up a second Q1 win. Their Q2 wins also look solid, as they've beaten fellow ACC bubble teams UNC and Wake at home, as well as a neutral court win over North Texas that is 4 points away from being Q1. They host Notre Dame and go to Virginia next.
Notre Dame (13-7 (7-3 ACC), NET 72, SOS 46, 1-5 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Notre Dame had a huge chance at home against Duke, but lost it; not all that surprised that Duke won, even with their struggles, but the 43 points is a yikes. Their win over Kentucky is still pretty much the only thing keeping them in the conversation. They also have a decent home win against UNC, but their other Q2 wins are at home against Clemson and at Louisville, which are both very borderline. A road loss at Boston College certainly doesn't help their case, either. They have 2 more games this week: road trips to Miami and NC State.
Florida State (13-7 (6-4 ACC), NET 79, SOS 63, 2-3 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Florida State had a trip to Georgia Tech and a home game against Virginia Tech this week, and they dropped both. That probably puts them either right on or on the wrong side of the bubble. Beating Duke at home and sweeping Miami are good, but they probably still need more, especially with 2 Q3 losses (the aforementioned trip to GT and a home loss to Cuse). A road game against Clemson is Q1 for now, and they also host Wake in this upcoming week.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Kansas
Should be in: Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State, TCU
Work left to do: Oklahoma, West Virginia
Welcome to lock status, Baylor and Kansas! I don't think they have any chance of missing, even if they lose out. Both teams are 7-2 Q1 and 4-1 Q2 at this point; Kansas needed one more win for me to lock them up as of yesterday, and they picked it up. The Big 12 still looks like it has 6 solidly in and 2 more on the bubble or probably in, with Oklahoma and WVU looking like the teams that are slipping. Kansas State seems solidly out of the picture at this point, and OKST is tourney banned, so 8 is probably the max.
Locks
Baylor (19-3 (7-2 Big 12), NET 6, SOS 23, 7-2 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
Kansas (18-3 (7-1 Big 12), NET 9, SOS 9, 7-2 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
Should be in
Texas Tech (17-5 (6-3 Big 12), NET 10, SOS 18, 5-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
Texas Tech picked up a home win against Texas, which is another good win to add to the pile. The road win at Baylor and home win vs. Kansas are also still great, and they really haven't done anything bad this season. They're a couple wins away from lock status – road trips to sliding WVU and Oklahoma might do it, but I'm not going to say they will for certain.
Texas (16-6 (5-4 Big 12), NET 16, SOS 35, 3-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
I nearly put Texas in work left to do last week, but they proved that they really should be in, after picking up two Q1 wins; a blowout win at TCU and a squeaked-out home win against Tennessee. They may have lost to Texas Tech on the road after that, but that doesn't really change my opinion. The KSU road win and home loss are ping-ponging between Q1/Q2 and Q2/Q3 respectively, but they still look pretty easily in despite that. Home games against Iowa State and Kansas are up next, which could be some really good wins.
Iowa State (16-6 (3-6 Big 12), NET 28, SOS 17, 6-5 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
Iowa State may have 6 Q1 wins, but I'm starting to get a little worried – a 3-6 conference record is not ideal, but they should be fine if they don't collapse down the stretch. They do look like they're turning things around somewhat, with the road win at OKST followed by handling Mizzou, and I'm not too worried about the Kansas loss. We'll see; they get a rematch with Texas, this time on the road, which I don't expect them to win; I'd be somewhat worried with a loss at WVU or vs. Kansas State, however. That would put them at 4-8 in conference, which is not great.
TCU (15-4 (4-3 Big 12), NET 40, SOS 47, 4-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
TCU jumps to should be in after a home win against LSU and a road win at Oklahoma, both Q1 wins. I was not feeling great about them after that Texas loss, but they've bounced back well; the Oklahoma win pushed them into should be in for me. The Iowa State domination is still very impressive to me as well, and though they did lose to Santa Clara on a neutral court, I feel good about their chances as of now. Next up are home games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State.
Work left to do
Oklahoma (13-9 (3-6 Big 12), NET 39, SOS 15, 2-7 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Oklahoma is slipping a decent bit, after losses to Auburn and TCU. Neither are particularly bad, but that just adds to their 2-7 stretch. They did pick up a win at an even colder WVU this past week, but their last win before that was Iowa State on January 8. Games at Oklahoma State and vs. Texas Tech will be important.
West Virginia (13-8 (2-6 Big 12), NET 62, SOS 11, 2-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
West Virginia was in pretty solid position, but they're now on a 6 game slide, and I'm feeling like they could easily miss now. A home win against UConn and a road win against UAB are still Q1, but past that, they really don't look all that impressive. They host Texas Tech and Iowa State next – losses to both put them in serious trouble.
Big East
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Villanova, Connecticut, Xavier, Marquette, Providence
Work left to do: Seton Hall, Creighton
I'm not sure how many Big East teams will get in, but I'm guessing 6 or 7 – depends on what Seton Hall and Creighton do, but I think at least one will make it.
Should be in
Villanova (16-5 (9-2 Big East), NET 5, SOS 14, 4-5 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
Villanova looks pretty much the same as last week, except the Marquette loss at home is now Q1. A season sweep of Xavier, a road win over Seton Hall and a neutral court win against Tennessee are all good Q1 wins, while they don't really have a rough loss yet. A chance for revenge at Marquette and a home game against UConn are next.
Connecticut (15-5 (6-3 Big East), NET 17, SOS 68, 2-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2)
UConn should still be fine, but a home loss to Creighton does not impress. The Auburn neutral court win is keeping them in a good position, and they have another 2 solid wins (@ Marquette, VCU on a neutral court), but past that it's not great at all. The St. Bonaventure win dropped to Q3, though it's still decent, and this Creighton loss is Q2. They're on shakier ground than I think people realize; next up is a trip to Villanova and a home game against Marquette.
Xavier (15-5 (5-4 Big East), NET 18, SOS 19, 4-5 Q1, 5-0 Q2)
Xavier still is solidly in, with their results this past week being a loss at home to Providence and road win at Creighton, which is Q1. A home win against Marquette is also Q1 now, so their Q1 win count has increased from 2 to 4 in this past week. They host Butler and DePaul next; they haven't lost a game below Q1, so they're looking to not pick up a bad loss.
Marquette (15-7 (7-4 Big East), NET 27, SOS 6, 6-5 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Marquette has handled a very tough schedule well so far, with a win at Villanova leading their resume. Home wins against Illinois, Xavier and Providence are all very solid, and while the home loss to Creighton is Q2 and the St. Bonaventure loss on a neutral court is Q3 those are both still not bad losses in my view. They get a rematch against Villanova at home and a trip to UConn up next, and they're looking to start up a new streak after their 7 game win streak was snapped by Providence.
Providence (19-2 (9-1 Big East), NET 29, SOS 41, 5-1 Q1, 5-1 Q2)
Providence is honestly the closest Big East team to a lock for me, despite being 29th in NET. 19-2 with wins at UConn, Xavier and Wisconsin, and home wins against Texas Tech and Marquette is very good. Sure, the Virginia loss on a neutral court is not good, but other than that, their resume looks great. One more win probably locks them up; avoiding a loss at Georgetown on Sunday would do it barring any rescheduled games.
Work left to do
Seton Hall (12-7 (4-5 Big East), NET 41, SOS 24, 3-5 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Well, Seton Hall is 2-4 in their last 6 and picked up a home loss to St. John's this week. That's enough for me to drop them to work left to do. Home wins against UConn and Texas and a road win against Michigan are all still good, but past that, what do they really have? They did manage to avoid a loss at Georgetown; next up, they host Creighton.
Creighton (13-7 (5-4 Big East, NET 65, SOS 25, 4-5 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Creighton picked up a huge win at UConn, which may have just put them on the right side of the bubble. They now have 4 Q1 wins, including a home win against Nova, a road win against Marquette and a neutral court win against BYU; they do have 2 rough losses (@ Butler is 4 points off Q3, vs. Arizona State is 10 points off Q4), but I think this puts them in the field at least as of now.
Big Ten
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Work left to do: Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota
I was close to dropping Minnesota, but I decided to keep them around for now, as picking up a win in this next week would keep them in the conversation. The other reason I didn't drop Minnesota is because I think they have a better case than Michigan at this point, but Michigan is in too many brackets for me to feel comfortable leaving them off.
Should be in
Purdue (18-3 (7-3 B1G), NET 8, SOS 32, 6-2 Q1, 1-1 Q2)
Purdue is in a great position, and outside of that loss at Rutgers, they've looked solid pretty much the rest of the year. A win against Villanova on a neutral court is great, and they have 5 other Q1 wins to back it up; at Illinois, a sweep of Iowa, vs. Ohio State and UNC on a neutral court. They have too many opportunities for bad losses to be a lock, but they could be fairly soon; next up are games at Minnesota and vs. Michigan.
Illinois (15-5 (8-2 B1G), NET 14, SOS 30, 2-3 Q1, 5-2 Q2)
Illinois picked up a much needed win vs. Michigan State, and also managed to escape Northwestern this week. That puts them in a much better position than they were in last week. Still, after that MSU win, their resume isn't particularly impressive – wins at Iowa, vs. Michigan and vs. Notre Dame are the only particularly impressive other ones, though they do have 3 more Q2 wins. They host Wisconsin and go to Indiana next.
Ohio State (13-5 (6-3 B1G), NET 19, SOS 10, 3-5 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Well, Ohio State gave it their all to come back at Purdue, and actually managed to tie the game. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough for them to win. They didn't particularly need that win, though it would've been a great win if they got it, but they'll have to do with home wins against Duke and Wisconsin to lead their resume. However, after that, it falls off a decent bit; a neutral court win against Seton Hall is solid, but after that it's road wins against Minnesota and Penn State. They host Iowa and Maryland next.
Michigan State (17-4 (8-2 B1G), NET 20, SOS 20, 3-3 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Michigan State didn't look great throughout most of that Illinois loss, but they're still in good position; the Northwestern home loss is also still rough, but they certainly have the wins to make up for it. The road win at Wisconsin is probably their best win, and they also have neutral court wins against UConn and Loyola-Chicago, which are both Q1, not to mention the 6 Q2 wins (added two of those this week by beating Michigan at home and Maryland on the road; the latter wasn't exactly impressive but it was a win). Next up is a trip to Rutgers.
Wisconsin (17-3 (8-2 B1G), NET 21, SOS 8, 7-3 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
Wisconsin still looks about the same as last week for me; their resume looks like one of the top in the country for me, but other metrics don't seem to agree. Either way, I would personally have them as a 1 or 2 seed, and they should be easily in right now; they're the closest B1G team to a lock for me, and winning both games this week would likely do it. A neutral court win over Houston and a road win against Purdue are two great wins, and the other 8 combined Q1/Q2 wins back them up too. None of their losses are bad; vs. MSU, vs. Providence and at Ohio State aren't bad losses at all. They play at Illinois tomorrow.
Work left to do
Iowa (14-7 (4-6 B1G), NET 24, SOS 36, 2-5 Q1, 2-2 Q2)
Iowa got a Q1 win in a way I did not expect (actually 2!) – the home win against Indiana climbed up to Q1 status, and so did the neutral court win against Utah State. However, I'm still not impressed at all by them, and the double OT loss to Penn State really makes me somewhat concerned. They travel to Ohio State next, followed by hosting Minnesota. The latter, if they lose, would likely be a Q3 loss, though Minnesota could maybe jump to the top 75 in NET?
Indiana (16-5 (7-4 B1G), NET 30, SOS 84, 2-2 Q1, 2-3 Q2)
Indiana isn't quite into should be in yet; the home wins against Purdue and Ohio State are very good, but really they lack depth. The Maryland road win they just picked up is Q2, and they do have the neutral court win over Notre Dame, but I need something more. Their next game is at home against Illinois, which is an opportunity to really cement the fact that they should be in the tournament.
Michigan (11-8 (5-4 B1G), NET 53, SOS 28, 1-4 Q1, 1-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
I just don't really see Michigan as a tournament candidate right now, though the efficiency metrics do love them. The results just don't show it for me; wins at Indiana and vs. SDSU are decent, but they have some rough losses, including a Q3 loss (at home to Minnesota, which shouldn't really be Q3 but whatever). A road trip to Purdue on Saturday will be big.
Minnesota (11-7 (2-7 B1G), NET 87, SOS 27, 2-7 Q1, 0-0 Q2)
Pretty much everything I said about Minnesota last week still applies. Minnesota is currently in a spot where they just really need more opportunities. Right now, they're 2-7 in Q1, with some decent road wins at Michigan and Mississippi State, but that isn't enough to get them in right now. They host Purdue and travel to Iowa this upcoming week – they absolutely need to win one of those.
Mountain West
Locks: N/A
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Boise State, Wyoming, Colorado State, San Diego State
No should be in teams this week for the Mountain West, after CSU fell to Wyoming. Fresno is still on the outside looking in; Utah State also kinda is but I don't really see them making it as an at-large, but I would not be surprised to see them sneak in via a conference tournament run.
Work left to do
Boise State (16-4 (8-0 MWC), NET 31, SOS 92, 4-0 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)
Boise is on a 14 game win streak, which is impressive. They've picked up 4 Q1 wins, with 3 of those being in the last 2 weeks (road wins at SDSU, USU and Fresno). They would probably be in should be in, if it weren't for that home loss to CSU Bakersfield??? They also have 2 Q2 losses and a Q3 loss on a neutral court to St. Bonaventure, but those are somewhat more understandable, and they have solid wins. The next major contests are USU and SDSU at home, in about 3 weeks.
Wyoming (16-3 (6-1 MWC), NET 34, SOS 112, 1-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
That Wyoming-CSU game was fun, and Wyoming managed to eke out the win. That definitely puts them on the right side of the bubble, but I'm just not sure how safe they actually are right now. The CSU win is actually a Q2 win, as it was at home; their Q1 win is a win at Utah State. They still don't have a bad loss, and they have the second game against USU up next, at home; if they win that, they could jump to should be in, but I just don't have a good read on the MWC at this point.
Colorado State (15-3 (6-3 MWC), NET 38, SOS 136, 2-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Colorado State drops to work left to do after having lost their last 2; the Wyoming one isn't bad, but losing at home to UNLV is a Q3 loss. They're still on the right side of the bubble, but definitely in a worse position than last week; the St. Mary's home win is still probably their best win, and is joined by the MSST neutral court win in Q2; the Creighton neutral court win and the USU home win are also good. They host San Diego State next.
San Diego State (12-5 (4-2 MWC), NET 46, SOS 71, 1-4 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
San Diego State hasn't looked great as of late, and that makes them currently the bubbliest Mountain West team. Wins over St. Mary's on a neutral court and Colorado State at home are solid, but that's really it; a road win at UNLV is Q2 but not all that special, and they've picked up 5 losses (although none of them are bad). Next up is a big game at Colorado State.
Pac-12
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Arizona, UCLA, USC
Work left to do: Oregon, Stanford
It seems like UCLA has turned out to be the best Pac-12 team. USC is struggling, and UCLA beat Arizona solidly, though it was at home. Colorado and Wazzu need more to be in the convo for me, while Stanford has solidified their case.
Should be in
Arizona (17-2 (7-1 Pac-12), NET 3, SOS 83, 1-2 Q1, 5-0 Q2)
Arizona dropped the road trip to UCLA, and they get a home game against them on Thursday, followed by hosting USC. For their resume, it doesn't look all that different; they still have the Q1 win at Illinois, and wins at home against Wyoming, on a neutral court over Michigan and on the road at Stanford also help. They haven't picked up a bad loss yet this season, either.
UCLA (16-2 (8-1 Pac-12), NET 11, SOS 53, 3-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2)
UCLA picked up a huge home win against Arizona, which adds to their great wins vs. Villanova and at Marquette, and gives them a really great top of their resume. The thing is that their Q2 wins aren't all that impressive; @ Colorado, @ UNLV, @ Cal and @ Utah are okay, but the last 2 are borderline Q3, and I would probably say the Q3 home win against Stanford that they picked up this week is better than all of those. Next up is the road trip to Zona.
USC (18-3 (8-3 Pac-12), NET 25, SOS 173, 2-0 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Well, I am thoroughly unimpressed with USC. The home loss against Stanford is technically Q3, and they managed to get swept by them. Wins at Washington State and on a neutral court against San Diego State are Q1, but I just am not impressed at all. Still, as of now, they probably should be in. A road trip to Arizona comes on Saturday, and a week after that they host crosstown rivals UCLA.
Work left to do
Oregon (12-7 (6-3 Pac-12), NET 59, SOS 48, 2-4 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 2 Q3 loss)
Oregon is really just relying on a road sweep of the LA schools right now; their Q2 win vs. SMU is decent, but they seem right on the bubble, and would certainly not even be in the conversation without the UCLA and USC wins. The home loss to Colorado gives them a second Q3 loss, in addition to the ASU home loss, which might be too much. Up next is a trip to Colorado and Utah.
Stanford (13-7 (6-4 Pac-12), NET 89, SOS 10, 4-4 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Stanford finished off the season sweep against USC, which is huge for their resume; those are 2 of their 4 Q1 wins, and are the main thing keeping them alive. A neutral court win against Wyoming and a road win at Wazzu are solid and Q1, and they did pick up a home win against Oregon in here, but without those USC wins they're out of the picture. Road losses to Colorado and Washington aren't great, the latter being Q3, but I'd probably have them in right now. They host Wazzu and Washington this week.
SEC
Locks: Auburn
Should be in: Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama
Work left to do: Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Texas A&M
Auburn has locked themselves up after picking up 3 wins since my last bubble watch, including one vs. Alabama yesterday, which really sealed any possible doubt. They're the last one loss team left, as well, and the current #1 team in the country. Overall, I probably see a 6 or 7 bid SEC; I don't think more than 2 of Arkansas/MSST/Florida/TAMU are making it, and possibly only 1.
Locks
Auburn (21-1 (9-0 SEC), NET 4, SOS 31, 7-1 Q1, 5-0 Q2)
Should be in
Kentucky (17-4 (7-2 SEC), NET 7, SOS 33, 4-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
Kentucky totally changed their impression on me after that Kansas game. That was an impressive win, and has me convinced that they are legitimately good. That adds to the Tennessee and North Carolina wins at home and on a neutral court respectively as beatdowns of tournament teams. They've struggled at points (lost at Notre Dame, MSST took them to overtime at home), but they look good. Next up, they host Vanderbilt and travel to Alabama; I doubt those two wins would be enough to lock them, but we're getting to the point it's worth considering.
Tennessee (15-6 (6-3 SEC), NET 13, SOS 3, 3-6 Q1, 4-0 Q2)
Tennessee handled Florida and Texas A&M at home, and while they did lose at Texas, that's not a big deal. They just really need to do anything too bad – wins vs. Arizona and LSU are very solid, and their depth is building up some; the 6 losses aren't going to be as much of a problem the deeper we get into the season. Next up are trips to South Carolina and Mississippi State.
LSU (16-6 (4-5 SEC), NET 15, SOS 22, 4-4 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
I have no clue what to think about LSU now. I thought they were looking pretty good, but the Ole Miss home loss is Q3, and they did not look good in the TCU road loss either. The Kentucky and Tennessee wins are still keeping them solidly in, and the rest of their resume is still solid (9 combined Q1/Q2 wins), but I just don't know what to think. Next up are trips to Vandy and Texas A&M.
Alabama (14-8 (4-5 SEC), NET 22, SOS 1, 6-5 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
"I legitimately would not be surprised if they lost at Georgia and then beat Baylor at home and Auburn on the road. Well, maybe slightly, but you get the idea." I said this about them last week – they did the first two, and I think Auburn is just like immune to whatever voodoo Alabama has going on. They're 5-2 in Q1-A (I don't like to talk about these subtiers, but basically Q1-A is top tier Q1 and Q1-B is bottom tier Q1, same thing for Q2, Q3/Q4 aren't relevant enough), and 1-3 Q1-B; the 2 Q1-A losses are to Auburn, so yeah, I just have no idea. Next up they host Kentucky and travel to Ole Miss. I wouldn't be surprised if they win the first and lose the second at all at this point.
Work left to do
Florida (13-8 (3-3 SEC), NET 43, SOS 44, 1-5 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)
Florida is definitely in some more trouble now; the road loss to Tennessee is more a missed opportunity, but the road loss to Ole Miss could hurt. That, in addition to the Texas Southern loss which is Q4 means they need some solid wins. The Ohio State win on a neutral court is very good, but they really need more; wins vs. MSST/OKST at home are decent, but I don't know if they'd make it right now. The next big opportunity is a road trip to Kentucky on the 12th.
Mississippi State (14-7 (5-3 SEC), NET 47, SOS 78, 1-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Mississippi State still feels bubbly; the road game at Kentucky could've been huge, but they unfortunately dropped that one in OT. Home wins against Alabama, Arkansas and Furman, along with a neutral court win over Richmond will likely not cut it with 2 Q3 losses (admittedly they could be worse (vs. Minnesota, neutral vs. Louisville)). They very much have the opportunities – they look for their first road win of the year (!) at Arkansas, followed by hosting Tennessee and trips to LSU and Alabama. Losing all 4 would definitely knock them out of contention – I don't think 1-3 is enough to put them on the right side of the bubble either, so they probably need at least 2 of those, which would require a road win.
Arkansas (16-5 (5-3 SEC), NET 51, SOS 111, 1-3 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Arkansas is in the best position out of any of the work left to do SEC teams, with a good win at LSU and 5 Q2 wins to back it up. Still, they're certainly not safe – home losses to Vanderbilt and Hofstra do not help their case. Next up is a trip to Georgia, trying to avoid a 3rd Q3 loss, followed by what could be an important home game against Mississippi State.
Texas A&M (14-7 (4-5 SEC), NET 67, SOS 72, 0-6 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Texas A&M could certainly be dropped, but I've opted to keep them in for now despite them being on a 5 game losing streak. The home loss to South Carolina is rough, but other than that, all their losses are in Q1. Wins vs. Arkansas and on a neutral court against Notre Dame are decent, but that would probably not get them in right now. Next up is a home game against Missouri – if they can't break the streak there, they're probably out of the conversation.
West Coast
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Work left to do: BYU, San Francisco
This week, St. Mary's and BYU have swapped spots in should be in/work left to do. Also, Santa Clara picked up a huge win vs. BYU, but it's not enough to get them in the conversation after losing to San Francisco.
Should be in
Gonzaga (17-2 (6-0 WCC), NET 1, SOS 79, 3-2 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
Not much has changed since last week for Gonzaga; they're still just picking up solid wins and not bad losses. Wins on a neutral court against Texas Tech and UCLA are very good, and home wins against Texas, BYU and San Francisco are solid. They have two losses, both neutral court losses, to Duke and Alabama. As long as they don't drop any random game, their next real test will be a road trip to BYU on Saturday. Should be fun!
St. Mary's (16-4 (5-1 WCC), NET 23, SOS 75, 2-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2)
St. Mary's is looking like a pretty sure bet to make the tournament now – the road win against San Francisco added another needed win, which also makes up for them losing a Q1 win. They don't have a bad loss (worst is against SDSU on a neutral court), and as long as they don't pick one up, they should be fine. Next opportunity for a Q1/Q2 win is a trip to Santa Clara on the 8th.
Work left to do
BYU (15-6 (5-3 WCC), NET 33, SOS 56, 3-1 Q1, 6-4 Q2, 1 Q4 loss)
Well, BYU went from solidly in to losing to Pacific since the last watch. Yikes. Still, with 9 Q1/Q2 wins, I think they're still in the field pretty clearly, but losses at Santa Clara and Pacific do not help. The road win at San Francisco and home win vs. St. Mary's certainly are good, but they have a lot of questionable losses, not just those two (@ Utah Valley, Vandy on a neutral court are also Q2 but not great). They host San Francisco and Gonzaga this week – will be interesting to see how that shakes out.
San Francisco (16-5 (4-3), NET 36, SOS 103, 2-3 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
San Francisco would only really feel safe with a win against one of the big WCC teams; they're still in for now, but certainly not safely in; their 2 Q1 wins are 6 and 3 points off Q2 respectively (neutral court wins against Davidson and UAB), and the Grand Canyon loss has dropped to Q3. They travel to BYU on Thursday, and if they don't win that, the only other shot at a win over the big 3 in the WCC is a late home game against Gonzaga. I have a feeling they'll be right on the bubble at the end of the year if they don't beat BYU or pull off a big win in the WCC tourney.
Others
Locks: N/A
Should be in: Murray State
Work left to do: Loyola-Chicago, UAB, Belmont, Iona, Toledo, Ohio
This week's list of keep an eye on them!: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Drake, and Oakland! I think we're likely to see all of those 5 outside of Drake win their conference tournaments, though the WAC and SoCon are tough, so we could see one of those drop their conference tournament.
Should be in
Murray State (17-2 (10-0 OVC), NET 26, SOS 209, 2-1 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
Murray State didn't look great as of these past few games, but they still seem destined for a tournament bid as long as they don't drop a Q4 game, which is the majority of games in this conference, so... Either way, right now, they'd easily be in as an at-large, with only one real rough loss (ETSU on a neutral court) and Q1 wins at Belmont and Memphis, along with a home win over Chattanooga. The next non-Q4 game is a trip to Morehead State on February 12, and if they don't drop any of the Q4 games, they're in great shape.
Work left to do
Loyola-Chicago (15-4 (7-2 MVC), NET 32, SOS 124, 1-2 Q1, 3-2 Q2)
Loyola-Chicago is not looking too good as of late; they only scored 44 in a road win at Southern Illinois, and they dropped a game at Drake. I really don't know how good their at-large case is now – they certainly have some work left to do in my book. Vandy, DePaul and Southern Illinois are Q2 wins, but they're not exactly the most impressive Q2 wins, so the main thing they have is a neutral court win over San Francisco. On Sunday, they travel to Missouri State, which is a Q1 opportunity and a chance for revenge.
UAB (15-5 (7-2 C-USA), NET 48, SOS 185, 2-1 Q1, 1-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses)
Yikes, a loss to a Marshall team on a 10 game losing streak? They're lucky that's not a Q4 loss, but that still gives them a second Q3 loss, in addition to Rice. The road wins against North Texas and Saint Louis are huge, especially considering the fact that they have 1 Q1/Q2 game left, which is them hosting North Texas on the 19th. I'm not sure how much of an at-large chance they have, but it's certainly worse than last week.
Belmont (16-5 (7-2 OVC), NET 50, SOS 127, 1-3 Q1, 4-2 Q2)
Belmont's resume improved greatly these past 9 days as a result of other teams' doings. The Murray State and Ohio losses are now Q1, and the Furman and Drake wins are now Q2. They still also have the wins that had them up here in the first place; at Saint Louis, vs. Chattanooga and vs. Iona on a neutral court. Sure, the Dayton and Morehead State losses aren't great, but I think Belmont has a much better case than last week.
North Texas (13-4 (8-1 C-USA), NET 54, SOS 144, 0-1 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
I've opted to include North Texas for this watch, as I think they have a reasonable enough case now; they have 3 okay Q2 wins, @ Wichita State, @ Louisiana Tech, and a neutral court win against Drake. The Buffalo home loss hurts somewhat, but I think they have enough of case to be here. They travel to UAB on the 19th; that will be huge.
Iona (18-3 (10-0 MAAC), NET 58, SOS 157, 1-3 Q1, 2-0 Q2)
Nothing's really changed with Iona since last week; they still have a solid resume with no bad losses and a neutral court win over Alabama. Losses to Belmont on a neutral court and Saint Louis are still Q1, and certainly could be a lot worse. Wins against Liberty on a neutral court and Monmouth on the road are their Q2 wins. They will not have another Q1/Q2 opportunity, unless they face a Monmouth team that sits at or above 100 NET in the conference tournament, or one of their other wins jump up to Q2 which doesn't seem likely.
Toledo (17-4 (10-1 MAC), NET 61, SOS 236, 1-1 Q1, 0-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss)
The winner of Ohio @ Toledo will most likely be the only one in the watch for next week, but for this week, I figured I'd include both. Toledo's resume right now is pretty much just the Ohio road win, but a sweep of them I think would shove them in the at-large convo. However, it really wouldn't be that much, especially if Ohio falls below 75 in NET. That's coming up on the 8th, so until then, we wait.
Ohio (16-3 (8-1 MAC), NET 74, SOS 206, 0-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2)
The winner of Ohio @ Toledo will most likely be the only one in the watch for next week, but for this week, I figured I'd include both. I think Ohio has a much better chance, on the back of a home win against Belmont and a road win at Buffalo, along with the lack of a bad loss. However, if they drop both to Toledo, they don't have another chance to pick something big up. The matchup on February 8 should be good.
Statistics:
+ Michigan, North Texas
– Cincinnati, UCF, St. Bonaventure
Total locks: 3 (2 autobids)
Total should be in: 27 (8 autobids)
Total work left to do: 34 (5 autobids)
Spots vs. teams included (accounting for autobids): 36, 18 taken by locks/should be in, 18 spots for 29 work left to do
If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, I doubt I'll be getting one up next week, so my next one will probably come in two weeks. See you whenever the next one pops up!
