Skarmory's Bubble Watch – 2023 (semi-live updates)

Welcome back to my bubble watch! I will be updating each section somewhat live, as games progress through the year – building a full watch every week is somewhat hard, so I've opted for this instead, and sections may not be up to date (I've included a date on each of them). Data is from warrennolan.com, and non-D1 wins are not counted in records. Logos are from dep's emote servers on discord. I also reference bracketmatrix.com a lot, so feel free to take a look at that (shows the general consensus of bracketologists).

Everything should be updated. See you next year! :) Maybe I'll make some blog post after the selection show, dunno. Mar. 12, 5:50 PM

Well, conference tournament season has almost ended, and things are settling in. I doubt any major changes will result from today's games – remember how weakly conference tournaments, especially late ones, are weighed (see '22 Texas A&M). That means we're pretty much set up with our current teams in their current groups, and nothing's going to shift them. Aaaaah, I'm excited for the selection show! Just 13.5 hours away! Mar. 12, 4:23 AM

American

Locks: Houston, Memphis

Should be in: N/A

Work left to do: N/A

The championship game is starting soon between Houston and Memphis, and that'll only affect seeding (and probably only Memphis' seeding as well). This conference has been destined to be 2-bid for ages, ever since UCF went on a losing streak to knock them out of the at-large conversation right before I started the watch for this year.

Locks

Houston (31-3 (17-1 AAC), NET 1, SOS 96, 7-2 Q1, 8-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Memphis (26-8 (13-5 AAC), NET 29, SOS 73, 4-4 Q1, 9-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

ACC

Locks: Duke, Virginia, Miami (FL)

Should be in: N/A

Work left to do: NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, Pittsburgh

I don't even know what number to give the ACC now. 5 seems likely, though we could easily see one of NC State or Pittsburgh miss, and Clemson is a potential dark horse bubble candidate. North Carolina probably should be off the watch entirely, but they're still here because... I don't really know why, actually.

Locks

 Duke (26-8 (14-6 ACC), NET 16, SOS 57, 5-6 Q1, 7-2 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

Virginia (25-7 (15-5 ACC), NET 26, SOS 71, 5-5 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Miami (FL) (25-7 (15-5 ACC), NET 35, SOS 81, 5-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Work left to do

NC State (23-10 (12-8 ACC), NET 45, SOS 78, 1-6 Q1, 7-4 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

I don't think losing to Clemson by 25+ for the second time in two weeks is what NC State needed. That tanked their efficiency metrics some, and with just 1 Q1 win... things are getting dicey. NC State is now just the third to last team in on bracketmatrix, and while they're still in a lot of brackets, things are trending the wrong direction – the one win against Duke in Q1 may not be enough to hold up their resume, especially with 4 Q2 losses (vs. Clemson and against em in the ACCT; vs. Pitt; @ Cuse). I would guess NC State is on the right side of the bubble as of now, but when your resume looks somewhat similar to UNC's... that's not a good sign.

 North Carolina (20-13 (11-9 ACC), NET 46, SOS 49, 1-9 Q1, 6-4 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

I still think North Carolina is done, but I'm just very slightly worried... I really don't know what to say if UNC sneaks into the tournament. I do doubt it actually happens – there's not much of a case for them, but honestly, they're not that much worse resume-wise than NC State, at least from my view (KPI and SOR disagree – there's a decent gap, from 38 to 46 in KPI and 40 to 52 in SOR with NC State ahead). Combine that with metrics hanging around the high 30s to mid 40s, and I find it hard to knock the Tar Heels off the watch entirely.

 Clemson (23-10 (14-6 ACC), NET 60, SOS 102, 4-4 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 2 Q4 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Clemson did pick up a 26 point win against NC State in the ACC tournament, but they followed that up by getting dominated by Virginia, so they didn't get much of a boost overall from those two games. I'll let the blurb from last time do the talking, since not much changed... I still don't think Clemson has a good chance to make it, but after seeing how close Dayton was last year, I feel like leaving the Tigers off the watch at this point is a mistake. The biggest problem they have is the 2 Q3 and 2 Q4 losses – the ones at South Carolina and against Loyola-Chicago were early season, but they picked up bad losses solidly into conference play as well, specifically at Boston College and Louisville. That many bad losses is a death sentence for most teams, and it probably should be one for Clemson as well – they do have positive or .500 records in both of the top two quadrants, including wins vs. Duke, at NC State and at Pittsburgh, but when those are your best wins, you really need to have a strong resume elsewhere, and they definitely don't. It's not like the predictive metrics are giving them a boost either – they're as low as 63rd in KenPom. I do think there's a chance the committee doesn't weigh the non-conference losses too heavily, but I don't think that'd be enough to get Clemson in; if there is a surprise team that makes it, though, I'd count on it being Clemson.

 Pittsburgh (22-11 (14-6 ACC), NET 67, SOS 91, 4-4 Q1, 3-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

A 27-point loss to Duke that felt much worse than that did not help Pittsburgh in the metrics. Already sitting around 60th in metrics in general and as low as 66th in KenPom before that game, they're down to 77th in live KenPom, and they're now mostly hanging around the high 60s to the low 70s; for a team with 7 losses below Q1, I don't know if they can afford that. It seems like overall, Pittsburgh is a generally liked team by bracketologists; most years, I'd doubt that this team would make it, but combine a weak bubble with some nice wins in Q1 (@ NC State, also @ Northwestern by 29 in Q1-A), and they might be in. However, I'm personally not thrilled, especially with losses at Notre Dame and vs. Florida State, along with a pretty rough 3-5 Q2 record. It's time to sweat it out and see if Pitt's done enough.

Big 12

Locks: Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia, TCU

Should be in: N/A

Work left to do: Oklahoma State

Texas took the Big 12 tournament – 7 teams are locks for the NCAA tourney, and Oklahoma State is right on the bubble. Could we see 80% of the conference make the NCAA tournament? That would have to be a record, and it'd be a fitting one for possibly the best conference in college basketball history.

Locks

 Texas (26-8 (12-6 Big 12), NET 7, SOS 6, 14-8 Q1, 4-0 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Kansas (27-7 (13-5 Big 12), NET 9, SOS 1, 17-7 Q1, 4-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Baylor (22-10 (11-7 Big 12), NET 15, SOS 2, 11-10 Q1, 4-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Iowa State (19-13 (9-9 Big 12), NET 20, SOS 4, 10-11 Q1, 2-2 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Kansas State (23-9 (11-7 Big 12), NET 23, SOS 16, 9-8 Q1, 4-1 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 West Virginia (19-14 (7-11 Big 12), NET 24, SOS 5, 6-13 Q1, 6-1 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

TCU (21-12 (9-9 Big 12), NET 28, SOS 11, 8-10 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Work left to do

Oklahoma State (18-15 (8-10 Big 12), NET 43, SOS 8, 6-12 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

After knocking off Oklahoma to start off the Big 12 tournament, the Cowboys dropped the quarterfinal game to Texas, ending their season; they now have to wait and see if their name gets called on Sunday. They sit at 18-15 overall, with a 6-12 Q1 record that's split up into 1-11 Q1-A and 5-1 Q1-B (I don't really know what to make of the further divisions of Q1, though...). Their best win, and only Q1-A win, is at Iowa State – with a resume like this, I don't know if having that weak of a top win is enough to get them in, considering how heavily they weigh on having strong wins. The loss to Southern Illinois is another point that'll hurt them a lot – having a Q3 loss among their 15 losses isn't helpful, and that loss count might be too much. The metrics are the best thing they have – most are low 40s or even into the 30s, which is better than pretty much the rest of the bubble. They remind me a lot of Oklahoma last year – honestly, overall, they're eerily similar, with OKST having 2 more Q1 wins and 2 less Q2 wins, and everything else being about the same. That team was the second team out last year.

Big East

Locks: Connecticut, Marquette, Creighton, Xavier

Should be in: Providence

Work left to do: N/A

The only slight question mark left in the Big East is Providence, and even then, they're pretty safe. Marquette absolutely demolished Xavier in the Big East championship game – they may get a 2 seed, and I think UConn could do some serious damage in the Big Dance as well.

Locks

Connecticut (25-8 (13-7 Big East), NET 8, SOS 42, 6-6 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Marquette (28-6 (17-3 Big East), NET 12, SOS 45, 7-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

Creighton (21-12 (14-6 Big East), NET 17, SOS 25, 3-8 Q1, 6-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Xavier (25-9 (15-5 Big East), NET 22, SOS 30, 8-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Should be in

 Providence (21-11 (13-7 Big East), NET 55, SOS 62, 3-8 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Well... Providence's season is over now, and it did not end well. They closed the season on a three game losing streak – a loss at home to Xavier, then one at home to Seton Hall by 24 (which did eventually fall to Q3), and then a loss to UConn in the conference tournament where they sort of started coming back after an awful first half but where they never really had a chance. At this point, pretty much everything on Providence's resume screams mediocre. When the committee convened, they held something like a 4-8 Q1 record (though with 2 or 3 Q1-A wins), with 2 Q3 losses and only 3 wins in Q2, along with middling metrics hanging across the 40s. Now, they're down to just 3 Q1 wins, albeit with one of the Q3 losses now being in Q2; those changes may not be taken into consideration by the committee, depending on when they convened and how much they changed today. None of the resume is particularly impressive, but it's not awful, and the bubble is relatively weak this year, so they're probably fine, but... they did not make things easy on themselves at the end.

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State

Should be in: N/A

Work left to do: Rutgers, Wisconsin

Penn State's run to the Big Ten finals is enough to lock them up. Sure, conference tournament runs weren't weighed too heavily last year with Texas A&M, but Penn State was already probably in before the conference tournament, and they've picked up 3 Q1 wins in this event. I don't see any way they miss now, so they're a lock. That leaves the last true bubble candidate as Rutgers, and they seem to be on the right side of things as of now, but they're certainly not safe – I've also kept Wisconsin on, at least for now, but I don't really think they have a chance at the tournament.

Locks

Purdue (29-5 (15-5 B1G), NET 5, SOS 21, 10-4 Q1, 9-1 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

Indiana (22-11 (12-8 B1G), NET 30, SOS 12, 6-9 Q1, 6-2 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Maryland (21-12 (11-9 B1G), NET 31, SOS 36, 3-10 Q1, 6-2 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Michigan State (19-12 (11-8 B1G), NET 33, SOS 7, 5-9 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Illinois (20-12 (11-9 B1G), NET 34, SOS 31, 2-11 Q1, 7-1 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Iowa (19-13 (11-9 B1G), NET 39, SOS 22, 4-7 Q1, 9-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 10

Northwestern (21-11 (12-8 B1G), NET 41, SOS 37, 7-6 Q1, 4-5 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Penn State (22-12 (10-10 B1G), NET 49, SOS 28, 7-7 Q1, 5-5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Work left to do

 Rutgers (19-14 (10-10 B1G), NET 40, SOS 41, 4-7 Q1, 6-3 Q2, 4 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Rutgers gave Purdue a fight, but it wasn't enough, and the Scarlet Knights bowed out of the B1G tournament in the quarterfinals. As such, it's time to wait and see if what they did was enough – the only real strikingly bad part of their resume are the 4 Q3 losses, being vs. Seton Hall, vs. Nebraska, vs. Temple in Connecticut, and at Minnesota. Outside of that, they're a decent 5-7 in Q1, headlined by a great win at Purdue, and they have an also decent 6-3 Q2 record – however, their resume metrics sit across the 50s because of the bad losses. The predictive metrics they have are all top 40, which helps quite a bit – I'd think everything combined, they're in, but they're not in by much and could still miss.

Wisconsin (17-14 (9-11 B1G), NET 80, SOS 13, 5-7 Q1, 6-6 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Oh no. Wisconsin absolutely could not afford a first round conference tourney loss to Ohio State, and that's exactly what they got. Tip: Don't go down 27 points in what is practically an elimination game. The Badgers are very much on the wrong side of the bubble now, but I'm not going to drop them at this point – the show is just a few hours away at this point, there's no point in really removing them incase the committee just ignores the bad metrics. The 5 Q1 wins are nice, but a 6-6 Q2 record and 7 total losses below Q1 are both not ideal, and their predictive metrics are completely in the gutter; their highest resume metric is at 50 as well, so it's looking really bad. Time to wait and see for Wisconsin, but a trip to the NIT seems pretty certain now.

Mountain West

Locks: San Diego State, Boise State

Should be in: Utah State

Work left to do: Nevada

The Mountain West tournament probably secured Utah State's spot – sure, they didn't win it, but they picked up a 2nd Q1 win against Boise, which should help them out some. Meanwhile, Nevada's game one loss to San Jose State leaves them right on the bubble heading into the selection show.

Locks

San Diego State (26-6 (15-3 MWC), NET 14, SOS 47, 5-5 Q1, 6-1 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

Boise State (23-9 (13-5 MWC), NET 27, SOS 60, 3-5 Q1, 9-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Should be in

Utah State (25-8 (13-5 MWC), NET 19, SOS 72, 2-5 Q1, 9-1 Q2, 2 Q4 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Utah State is an incredibly weird team. They're 0-5 in Q1-A, they've lost probably the two easiest games on their schedule, and in the 26 other games between Q1-B and the top of Q4 they're 25-1, with the one loss being at San Jose State. In those 25 wins, they have 2 Q1 wins (both against Boise), 9 Q2 wins and 13 Q3 wins, along with a Q4 win. I... really don't know what to make of that resume, and the two main resume metrics seem to disagree with eachother – USU is 15th in KPI and 30th in SOR. Meanwhile, the predictive metrics love them, and even BPI/Sagarin which are low on the MW have them at least top 40 – they're as high as 18th in KenPom. All that taken together, and I guess this is a tournament team? It's a weird situation though, and if there's a random snub, it could easily be Utah State – remember, one of their Q1 wins was in the conference tournament, so it may not be weighed much.

Work left to do

 Nevada (21-10 (12-6 MWC), NET 37, SOS 70, 4-5 Q1, 3-3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Why, Nevada, why? I mean, I can't complain about the SJSU loss because I wanted SJSU to win (go Spartans! been rooting for em all year), but losing your final three, being two Q3 games and a Q2-B game? Yikes. At this point, there's nothing left to do but hope what they did in their 21-7 start is enough – home wins against all the other top MW teams are all solid, three being Q1, and SDSU is a Q1-A win now, but their Q2 record has fallen to .500. Combine that with metrics all over the map where none of them are particularly special, and waiting until Sunday will be a very tense affair. They're currently projected out by bracketmatrix, but they're in a fair number of brackets – I don't know what to expect with them.

Pac-12

Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC

Should be in: N/A

Work left to do: Arizona State

Oregon went out in the semifinals to UCLA, and now their resume looks like a worse version of UNC's... which is a team that is barely hanging onto a spot in the watch. Goodbye, Ducks, 19-14 in the Pac-12 wasn't enough to cut it this year, and honestly I don't know the last time it would be good enough to cut it. We've got three certain teams – Arizona with the autobid, UCLA just barely missing a 1 seed and likely ending up as the top 2, and USC locking in a spot just before Selection Sunday, leaving Arizona State as the question mark. If they make it, the Pac-12 should get 4 bids; if they miss, the Pac-12 should get 3.

Locks

UCLA (29-5 (18-2 Pac-12), NET 3, SOS 44, 8-5 Q1, 9-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Arizona (28-6 (14-6 Pac-12), NET 10, SOS 46, 9-2 Q1, 7-4 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

 USC (22-10 (14-6 Pac-12), NET 50, SOS 63, 3-6 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Work left to do

Arizona State (22-12 (11-9 Pac-12), NET 66, SOS 55, 5-6 Q1, 4-5 Q2, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

The Pac-12 tournament has come and gone, and Arizona State managed to pick up a win over USC before getting knocked out by Arizona. That gives them a 5th Q1 win on the year – still, both their Q1 and Q2 records are below .500, though wins at Arizona and against (admittedly, an injured) Creighton in Vegas are Q1-A. They also have a pretty terrible loss at Texas Southern, which is just a pure Q4 loss (though the Tigers did manage to sneak into the NCAA tournament after going on a run as the bottom seed in their conference tournament), and the metrics don't seem to like them at all – they seem to be hanging around the mid-60s in general in the predictives, and around 50th in the resume metrics. All in all, Arizona State is right on the bubble going into Sunday, and there's nothing they can do after going out in the semifinals to Arizona.

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Missouri

Should be in: Mississippi State

Work left to do: Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt went out in the semis, so it's a likely 8-bid SEC, unless something weird happens. Mississippi State isn't quite a lock, but they're fairly safe and a should be in team. Alabama grabbed the autobid with a blowout win of Texas A&M in the conference tournament final, but that game is largely irrelevant except it probably prevents A&M from moving up a seed line.

Locks

Alabama (29-5 (16-2 SEC), NET 2, SOS 10, 13-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2) – Autobid – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Tennessee (23-10 (11-7 SEC), NET 4, SOS 32, 7-7 Q1, 3-3 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Texas A&M (25-9 (15-3 SEC), NET 18, SOS 56, 7-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 2 Q4 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Arkansas (20-13 (8-10 SEC), NET 21, SOS 27, 4-10 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Kentucky (21-11 (12-6 SEC), NET 25, SOS 24, 6-7 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Auburn (20-12 (10-8 SEC), NET 32, SOS 18, 3-10 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Missouri (24-9 (11-7 SEC), NET 42, SOS 35, 6-9 Q1, 4-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Should be in

 Mississippi State (21-12 (8-10 SEC), NET 48, SOS 37, 4-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

A quarterfinals blowout exit to Alabama leaves Mississippi State sitting likely just on the right side of the bubble, waiting for the selection show in about 14.5 hours. The metrics for them (both predictive and resume) have fallen to the high 40s-mid 50s range, which isn't ideal. Still, their resume seems okay – the lack of bad losses compared to other bubble teams (just 1 Q3 loss, @ Georgia), and the two Q1-A wins among their 8 top two quadrant wins (vs. Marquette in Fort Myers, @ Arkansas) will help boost them slightly above the cut line, and I think they're far enough above it to be considered a should be in team at this moment. I expect to hear their name called Sunday evening, but it's not a guarantee.

Work left to do

Vanderbilt (20-14 (11-7 SEC), NET 81, SOS 19, 5-11 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Oh, Vanderbilt, what do I do with you? The Commodores were debatably the hottest team in college basketball, before losing to Texas A&M in the SEC semifinals – after starting 10-12, they won 10 out of their next 11, with the loss being to... checks notes LSU on the road??? What? That's a Q3 loss and one of three bad losses on their resume, joining home losses to Southern Miss (Q3) and Grambling (Q4). That, combined with horrible efficiency metrics (80th in live KenPom as of now, the others aren't much better), has left Vandy in terrible position, but they've certainly tried to fight their way into the field – in their 10-1 stretch, they have wins vs. Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State, wins @ Kentucky and against Kentucky in the SEC tourney in Nashville, and even a home/road sweep of Florida for another Q1/Q2 win; they're a total of 4-0 Q1, 3-0 Q2, and 3-1 Q3 in that stretch. If only they'd beaten LSU... I doubt it's enough to get them in, given the rest of their year is awful, but they've made an incredible push that got them reasonably in the picture. I think the loss to Texas A&M is enough to knock them out, but I've kept them around incase the committee throws its yearly curveball at Vanderbilt.

Others

Autobids: Gonzaga, FAU, Oral Roberts, Charleston

Locks: St. Mary's

Should be in: N/A

Work left to do: N/A

FAU clinched the C-USA autobid by beating UAB, which means there's no movement left in this section. Oral Roberts and Charleston will be potentially scary 12 seeds, FAU is around the 8 line, Gonzaga could get a 2 but is most likely a 3, and St. Mary's seems to be about a 5 or 6.

Autobids

Gonzaga (27-5 (14-2 WCC), NET 6, SOS 54, 6-4 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss) – Last updated: Mar. 12

FAU (29-3 (18-2 C-USA), NET 13, SOS 152, 2-1 Q1, 4-2 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

 Oral Roberts (26-4 (18-0 Summit), NET 36, SOS 202, 0-4 Q1, 1-0 Q2) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Charleston (30-3 (16-2 CAA), NET 51, SOS 333, 0-1 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Locks

St. Mary's (25-7 (14-2 WCC), NET 11, SOS 77, 2-3 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) – Last updated: Mar. 12

Statistics:

This portion will cover teams moving in/out across the past week-ish. (It's pretty loose, so I just leave here what I think makes sense to include at this point.)

+ Vanderbilt

– Oregon, Michigan

Teams on my radar: Oregon, Michigan

Total locks/confirmed autobids: 41 (9 clinched autobids, 3 predicted autobids)

Total should be in: 3

Total work left to do: 10

Spots vs. teams included (accounting for autobids): 36, 32 taken by locks/should be in, 4 spots for 10 work left to do

If you get to here, thanks for reading this! I also post bracketologies on this blog sometimes, though they aren't great. Predicting the postseason is hard! Anyway, see you around!