Skarmory's Committee Top 16 reveal prediction (2024)

Hey! Figured I might as well do this in preparation for the reveal tomorrow 30 minutes after games start. No clue what the committee will prioritize between metrics and resume this year, but I'll take a stab at it.

Seed list

1. Purdue (1)

2. Houston (1)

3. UConn (1)

4. Arizona (1)

5. Tennessee (2)

6. Marquette (2)

7. North Carolina (2)

8. Iowa State (2)

9. Baylor (3)

10. Auburn (3)

11. Kansas (3)

12. Alabama (3)

13. Illinois (4)

14. Duke (4)

15. Wisconsin (4)

16. BYU (4)

5-seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Clemson, San Diego State

Regions

Midwest

1. Purdue (1)

2. North Carolina (7)

3. Baylor (9)

4. BYU (16)

South

1. Houston (2)

2. Marquette (6)

3. Alabama (12)

4. Wisconsin (15)

East

1. UConn (3)

2. Tennessee (5)

3. Kansas (11)

4. Duke (14)

West

1. Arizona (4)

2. Iowa State (8)

3. Auburn (10)

4. Illinois (13)

Comments

Why Houston over UConn? – I've been on this train most of the year, and it's mainly because of how big of a lead Houston has in the predictive metrics. The teams both have eight Q1 wins, four Q1-A and four Q1-B a piece, with Houston having an extra Q1 loss but UConn having one of their losses in Q1-B compared to all three of Houston's being in Q1-A. UConn does have 5-0 Q2 record compared to Houston's 1-0, but I don't think UConn has enough of a resume advantage there. It's also of note that Houston is 3rd in KPI (a resume metric), while UConn is 6th, and while that feels wrong, it may play into the committee's thought process.

Why is Iowa State the last 2 seed? – The consensus pick of Kansas' metrics are way too bad. As for the other candidates, Alabama is worse than Auburn for reasons I'll explain later, Baylor has worse metrics and an extra Q2 loss, while having a Q1 win for a Q2 win, and Auburn has just two Q1 wins to Iowa State's five. I think all of them have cases, but Iowa State's is the best to me. UNC is actually pretty close to ISU now, but I think UNC stays slightly ahead of Iowa State, and they have pretty similar reasons to be above Auburn and Baylor.

Why is the 3 line the way it is? – This was by far the hardest part. Auburn is top-5 in metrics, but with just two Q1 wins, it's tough to have them too high up. Kansas has a solid resume and has been projected high for a while, but their KP is 20th and BPI is 17th. I figured that Kansas could never be ahead of Auburn with that big of a metric gap, and Alabama also can't be ahead of Auburn because they're just a little worse across the board – even with one more Q1 win, they have two more Q2 losses and two less Q2 wins, along with worse predictive metrics and similar resume metrics.

Baylor is a version of Kansas that's a bit better in quadrant records with slightly worse resume metrics and a lot better on predictive metrics. They also have a head-to-head win over Auburn, and I went with their extra four Q1 wins and the head-to-head being enough to push them ahead. This is the pick I have the least confidence about, and Baylor and Auburn could easily be switched depending on how heavily this committee weighs the Q1 win count.

Kansas is ahead of Alabama because of the extra loss the Crimson Tide have, and the fact that Kansas has beaten four of the top 10 overall teams in this reveal (Alabama has beaten just one, and it's Auburn). I don't feel too confident about this either, especially because Kansas has a Q3 loss, but the metric gap isn't as significant as it is with Kansas and Auburn. Kansas' road record could also be a killer, given they're 2-5 on the road with their best win being Indiana.

Illinois is also pretty close, but they're a slightly worse version of Alabama in my view, with the resume metrics not favoring them like they do Alabama.

Why are Wisconsin and BYU the last two teams in? – I think this is the question more people will ask. Wisconsin's six Q1 wins and five Q2 wins are just too much for any of the others to contend with, outside of maybe Dayton, and I'll go into them more later. BYU, to me, feels like a team with a slight edge over Creighton. I could see it going either way for the last 4-seed between those two, but the two extra Q2 losses have Creighton's resume metrics worse than BYU's, even with an extra Q1 and Q2 win and one less Q1 loss. The Q1-A/Q1-B/Q2-A/Q2-B divides are also important with those two; four of BYU's five Q1 losses are Q1-A, while just two of Creighton's are, and they each have one Q1-A win. I think that evens out the Q1 disparity to some extent. Creighton does have an advantage over BYU in BPI, but BYU has the edge in NET, so I think that ultimately balances out. Creighton is 6-4 on the road while BYU is 2-4, and that could be the difference if it goes the other way.

San Diego State's in a rough spot, because I expect the top 16 to largely be unaffected by SDSU's game at home against New Mexico. A win probably doesn't move them in, especially with BPI having them 35th. The lack of a loss below Q1 is nice, but not enough in this group with otherwise pretty average metrics/resume and BPI having them so low.

I think Dayton is the big question mark here. They sit 10th in KPI and 12th in SOR, while 22nd in both KenPom and BPI, and 19th in NET. They have a solid 20-4 record, but they do play in the A10; they still have a 3-3 Q1 record and a 5-1 Q2 record, but those games are skewed towards Q1-B/Q2-B (just one Q1-A win, at #40 SMU, and two of their Q1 losses are Q1-B, while four out of five Q2 wins are Q2-B). I could reasonably see them ending up anywhere from above Wisconsin to below Clemson, and I have no idea what path the committee will take. Since I'm expecting some favor towards predictive metrics, I'm opting to leave BYU as #16.

Clemson is a wild card. They have a pair of road wins at Alabama and North Carolina, a far better pair of wins than any other contender here has. The problem is the two Q2 losses and the Q3 loss they have, with predictive metrics hanging in the mid-to-low 20s. SOR also barely has them above BYU, so I don't think they'll get the edge there.

I also took a glance at South Carolina and Utah State, and while the record and resume is nice for both of them, they both suffer from horrid predictive metrics, even more so in South Carolina's case.

Why are the regions what they are? – It's a crapshoot, I'm not used to projecting regions. it's been a few years since I've done any of it. Hopefully I followed the principles.

Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/13/24

Welcome back to Bracketology! My complaint to the consensus this week is WHY DO PEOPLE HAVE FLORIDA BELOW KENTUCKY BY MULTIPLE SEED LINES? Compare their resumes side-by-side. Florida has the same record, is higher in all of KenPom, BPI, KPI and SOR, has the same amount of Q1/Q2 wins, no losses below Q1 while Kentucky has a Q2 loss and a Q3 loss, while splitting the season series. I don't see any real case to put Kentucky above Florida, period, but they absolutely should not be multiple seed lines lower.

Bold indicates autobids and Italics indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona

2 seeds: North Carolina, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama

3 seeds: Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, Auburn

4 seeds: Duke, Illinois, Dayton, Wisconsin

5 seeds: South Carolina, Creighton, Clemson, BYU

6 seeds: San Diego State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, FAU

7 seeds: Utah State, Florida, Michigan State, Colorado State

8 seeds: Virginia, Kentucky, TCU, St. Mary's

9 seeds: Texas A&M, Texas, Indiana State, Washington State

10 seeds: New Mexico, Northwestern, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

11 seeds: Nevada, Utah, Butler, (Nebraska, Boise State)

12 seeds: (Gonzaga, Cincinnati), Grand Canyon, Princeton, McNeese

13 seeds: Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, UNC Wilmington

14 seeds: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Morehead State

15 seeds: High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate

16 seeds: Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, (South Dakota State, Southern), (Merrimack, Norfolk State)

Last 4 byes: Ole Miss, Nevada, Utah, Butler

Last 4 in: (Nebraska, Boise State), (Gonzaga, Cincinnati)

First 4 out: St. John's, Colorado, Drake, Providence

Next 4 out: Wake Forest, Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon

I also have a bubble watch, hosted at my friends' blog, The Low Major; check it out, as it gives analysis on every bubble team! Also, check out bracketmatrix.com to get an idea of the consensus of bracketologists, and to see where I differ.

Bids by conference:

Big 12: 10

SEC: 9

Big Ten: 6

Mountain West: 6

ACC: 4

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 3

WCC: 2

Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/06/24

Welcome back to Bracketology! This week's edition is characterized by the fact that I absolutely despise the range from like FAU to Ole Miss or so. Interestingly, there was a pretty hard cutoff about where the last at-large was; I don't think anyone, outside of maybe Providence/Seton Hall and maybe if you stretch it Wake, have much of a case to beat out Texas A&M for the last at-large spot.

Bold indicates autobids and Italics indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, UConn, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Kansas

3 seeds: Alabama, Wisconsin, Baylor, Auburn

4 seeds: Illinois, Iowa State, BYU, Dayton

5 seeds: San Diego State, Creighton, Duke, FAU

6 seeds: Utah State, South Carolina, New Mexico, Kentucky

7 seeds: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Clemson

8 seeds: Colorado State, TCU, Utah, Ole Miss

9 seeds: Michigan State, St. Mary's, Boise State, Indiana State

10 seeds: Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Cincinnati

11 seeds: Washington State, Northwestern, Mississippi State, (Colorado, Butler)

12 seeds: St. John's, Grand Canyon, Texas A&M, Princeton, McNeese

13 seeds: Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech

14 seeds: Akron, Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Morehead State

15 seeds: High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate

16 seeds: Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, (Southern, South Dakota State), (Merrimack, Norfolk State)

Last 4 byes: Cincinnati, Washington State, Northwestern, Mississippi State

Last 4 in: (Colorado, Butler), (St. John's, Texas A&M)

First 4 out: Providence, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Gonzaga

Next 4 out: Xavier, Villanova, Oregon, Kansas State

I also have a bubble watch, hosted at my friends' blog, The Low Major; check it out, as it gives analysis on every bubble team! Also, check out bracketmatrix.com to get an idea of the consensus of bracketologists, and to see where I differ.

Bids by conference:

Big 12: 10

SEC: 9

Big Ten: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 5

ACC: 4

Pac-12: 4

Skarmory's Bracketology – 01/30/24

Welcome back to Bracketology! This week's edition features an incredibly cramped 7-8 line that I had no real idea what to do with – I think you could organize them about 15 different ways and I'd see the reasoning behind it. I think the most notable teams that are hard to place there are South Carolina and TCU, though Michigan State is also tough. The bubble (honestly, anything below Colorado) is a mess as well. Specifically, Villanova has flashes of 2023 Rutgers, and that's why they're left out as of now.

Also, games from today are not accounted for. Jan. 30, 8:19 PM

Bold indicates autobids and Italics indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, UConn, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas

3 seeds: Marquette, Alabama, Iowa State, Creighton

4 seeds: Auburn, Illinois, Duke, Dayton

5 seeds: Kentucky, BYU, Texas Tech, San Diego State

6 seeds: Baylor, New Mexico, Utah State, Clemson

7 seeds: FAU, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, TCU

8 seeds: South Carolina, St. John's, Northwestern, Michigan State

9 seeds: Utah, Ole Miss, Colorado State, Texas

10 seeds: Colorado, Nebraska, St. Mary's, Indiana State

11 seeds: Washington State, Boise State, Providence, (Texas A&M, Cincinnati)

12 seeds: (Florida, Villanova), Grand Canyon, Princeton, McNeese

13 seeds: Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Samford, Akron

14 seeds: Louisiana Tech, Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Morehead State

15 seeds: High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate

16 seeds: Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, (South Dakota State, Southern), (Norfolk State, Merrimack)

Last 4 byes: Nebraska, Washington State, Boise State, Providence

Last 4 in: (Texas A&M, Cincinnati), (Florida, Memphis)

First 4 out: Villanova, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Kansas State

Next 4 out: Gonzaga, Virginia, Syracuse, Oregon

Bubble watch is currently under construction! Hopefully, I can finish it off in the next few days. For now, check out bracketmatrix.com to get an idea of where bracketologists have teams; as I actually had a fairly accurate prediction last year, my bracket will now be included among the ones listed there! :)

Bids by conference:

Big 12: 10

SEC: 9

Big Ten: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 5

Pac-12: 4

ACC: 3

American: 2

Skarmory's Bracketology – 01/23/24

Welcome back to Bracketology! Expect this to be weekly for now; I don't see any reason it'll become more or less frequent for the next few weeks. Not much to say this time around, other than the fact that I do not understand why Villanova is generally projected so high in brackets, often on the 7/8 line. Or why BYU seems to be by consensus about a seed line above Iowa State. Or why Kentucky is generally a 3 seed. (Okay, maybe I have a few things to say.) Jan. 23, 2:30 PM

1 seeds: Purdue, UConn, Houston, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Arizona, Wisconsin, Kansas

3 seeds: Auburn, Baylor, Marquette, Illinois

4 seeds: Creighton, BYU, Iowa State, Dayton

5 seeds: Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, San Diego State

6 seeds: Duke, Colorado State, Texas Tech, Utah

7 seeds: Utah State, Clemson, FAU, Memphis

8 seeds: Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Michigan State, New Mexico

9 seeds: Mississippi State, TCU, St. John's, Ole Miss

10 seeds: Boise State, St. Mary's, Villanova, Princeton

11 seeds: South Carolina, Nebraska, Indiana State, Northwestern

12 seeds: (Cincinnati, Florida), (Kansas State, Wake Forest), Grand Canyon, James Madison

13 seeds: McNeese, Samford, Akron, UC Irvine

14 seeds: Louisiana Tech, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, High Point

15 seeds: Montana, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate

16 seeds: South Dakota State, Quinnipiac, (Lipscomb, Norfolk State), (Southern, Merrimack)

Last 4 byes: Boise State, South Carolina, Nebraska, Northwestern

Last 4 in: (Cincinnati, Florida), (Kansas State, Wake Forest)

First 4 out: Colorado, Syracuse, Oregon, Virginia

Next 4 out: Providence, Texas, Xavier, Gonzaga

I'm starting work on Bubble Watch this week, so expect that to come out probably next week or the week after (it'll be updated in a live setting as it was last year, I may also post it on substack; will see how it goes). For now, check out bracketmatrix.com to get an idea of where bracketologists have teams; as I actually had a fairly accurate prediction last year, my bracket will now be included among the ones listed there! :)

Bids by conference:

Big 12: 10

SEC: 9

Big East: 6

Big Ten: 6

Mountain West: 5

ACC: 4

American: 2

Pac-12: 2

Skarmory's Bracketology – 01/16/24

Hey, it's an early bracketology! I'm making a poll each week, and since it's getting towards tournament season, I geared it to be a poll based off bracketology. That means I already had the top 6 seed lists ready, so I figured why not just finish it? I don't usually try my hand at bracketology until a couple weeks from now, so it may be a bit funky until then. Jan. 16, 3:45 PM

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Kansas

2 seeds: Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Baylor

3 seeds: Tennessee, Auburn, Duke, Illinois

4 seeds: Creighton, Kentucky, Memphis, Dayton

5 seeds: Alabama, Marquette, BYU, Iowa State

6 seeds: Utah State, Clemson, San Diego State, Oklahoma

7 seeds: Ole Miss, Colorado State, Utah, FAU

8 seeds: TCU, St. John's, Texas Tech, Texas A&M

9 seeds: Mississippi State, Villanova, Nevada, Nebraska

10 seeds: Michigan State, South Carolina, Princeton, Grand Canyon

11 seeds: Boise State, Cincinnati, Northwestern, Miami (FL), Seton Hall*

12 seeds: Wake Forest, Florida*, Gonzaga, Indiana State, James Madison

13 seeds: McNeese, UC Irvine, Samford, Akron

14 seeds: Louisiana Tech, UNCW, Vermont, High Point

15 seeds: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Lipscomb

16 seeds: Colgate, Quinnipiac, (Southern, South Dakota State), (Norfolk State, Central Connecticut)

Last 4 byes: South Carolina, Boise State, Cincinnati, Northwestern

Last 4 in: Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Florida

First 4 out: New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Kansas State

Next 4 out: Colorado, Texas, Providence, Butler

*Given Florida and Wake have played eachother in the regular season, and Miami and Wake will play eachother in the regular season, they cannot play in the first four – Florida would move up to the 11 line and Seton Hall down to the 12 line in an actual bracket to make the first four matchups possible, making the first four matchups Miami vs. Florida and Seton Hall vs. Wake.

Bubble watch will come in a couple weeks. For now, check out bracketmatrix.com to get an idea of where bracketologists have teams; as I actually had a fairly accurate prediction last year, my bracket will now be included among the ones listed there! :)

Skarmory's Bracketology – Live to the finish line!

It's that time of year again – a few days are left, so live bracket updates it is.

Autobids indicated by Bold text. First four teams are in italics, first four matchups in (parenthesis) if possible. Last updated at 5:50 PM on 03/12/23 – all games are included in this, since all games are done now! Time to wait for the selection show!

1 seeds: Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette

3 seeds: Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas State, UConn

4 seeds: Tennessee, Xavier, San Diego State, Indiana

5 seeds: Virginia, Duke, Iowa State, St. Mary's

6 seeds: Texas A&M, TCU, Miami (FL), Michigan State

7 seeds: Creighton, Missouri, Kentucky, FAU

8 seeds: Northwestern, Maryland, Arkansas, West Virginia

9 seeds: Memphis, Illinois, Auburn, Iowa

10 seeds: Boise State, Penn State, USC, Utah State

11 seeds: Providence, Mississippi State, (NC State, Nevada), (Rutgers, Arizona State)

12 seeds: Oral Roberts, Charleston, Drake, VCU

13 seeds: Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, UC Santa Barbara

14 seeds: Furman, Kennesaw State, Princeton, Montana State

15 seeds: Grand Canyon, Vermont, Colgate, UNC Asheville

16 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Howard, (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, SE Missouri State), (Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern)

Last four byes: USC, Utah State, Providence, Mississippi State

Last four in: (NC State, Nevada), (Rutgers, Arizona State)

First four out: Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Wisconsin

Next four out: Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Oregon, Michigan

I think Pitt is pretty clearly the bottom of the ASU/OKST/Pitt trio for me, but it's close between those three. It depends how much they care about OKST's overall record and the metrics on ASU/Pitt – it could go any way, tbh.

The 4-6 lines were really tough for me. Same with the 8-9 lines, but less so there – I have no clue what to do with the 4-6 lines. I think this is where I'm going to drop a bit compared to the average bracketologist – don't rely on my predictions in that line, I feel pretty good about everywhere else (even the 8-9 line).

Check out my bubble watch – it's better than this mess of a bracketology thing I'm trying to put together! This bracketology has barely any affect on where I place teams in the bubble watch – I prefer to look at the general consensus for the watch and build out off that, while going off the consensus for bracketology would basically involve copying brackets from elsewhere, which... no, I'm not doing that.

Also, check out bracketmatrix.com, where you will probably find many more accurate brackets/seed lines than this one. I used to be on there, but I won't be this year until the final bracket because they imposed a limit of at least one bracket in the top half over the past 5 years... yeah that's on me for not being good at bracketology. Maybe I can get top half this year? Who knows.

Bids by conference:

Big Ten: 9

SEC: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 5

ACC: 4

MWC: 4

Pac-12: 4

AAC: 2

WCC: 2